Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[btb]

1 minute ago, Elixir said:

Not at all. 'Cases' and subsequently pressure on hospitals are flat as a pancake despite an essentially fully open economy now. We're at the tail end of the pandemic and there's no guarantee at all that things will get much worst this autumn and winter in places like the UK due to so much immunity in the population.

Current death numbers are basically on a par with influenza deaths we would expect in winter. Bad influenza seasons, such as in 2017/18, see flu deaths peak at 300-400 every day in the UK.

But this is the summer. 

It might be the case that the flu & the rona will be competing to kill the same segment of population in the coming winter but overall I don't share your optimism.

[Arch Stanton]

1 hour ago, Billy Jean King said:

No away fans allowed at ANY European international games in the September round of WC qualifiers and friendlies as per UEFA / FIFA decree that all nations have signed up to.

Makes no sense in that fans were allowed to travel to Glasgow, Baku and everywhere inbetween less than 2 months ago.

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Arch Stanton said:

Makes no sense in that fans were allowed to travel to Glasgow, Baku and everywhere inbetween less than 2 months ago.

Easier for UEFA to just rule it out than cope with all the different country rules. For the Euros they were desperate to get all their corporate sponsors and freeloaders in so they pushed hard for exemptions.

[Michael W]

8 minutes ago, Arch Stanton said:

Makes no sense in that fans were allowed to travel to Glasgow, Baku and everywhere inbetween less than 2 months ago.

The virus cares very much about the shape of the tournament trophy. 

[Elixir]

3 minutes ago, btb said:

But this is the summer. 

It might be the case that the flu & the rona will be competing to kill the same segment of population in the coming winter but overall I don't share your optimism.

Yes, it is the summer, but that's because this exit wave was finding the pockets of the population not yet infected or vaccinated because the virus had become so easily transmitted - it's probably a good thing that this happened now. You're looking at ~93% of the UK population with detectable antibodies. Just like we have 'mild' influenza seasons, I wouldn't be surprised if this winter was actually fairly quiet in terms of Covid because of such high levels of immunity.

In time, however, when there is no longer a naive population, immunity will likely wane more predictably with the seasons once we exit the pandemic stage in the northern hemisphere. I suspect this will be the case next summer, i.e. we won't see what we have this year and then there will be a resurgence next winter, but with nothing close to the levels of death we have seen up until now.

In short, there might be some small flare ups, but honestly I think the main pressure on the NHS this winter will be from all respiratory viruses that have been suppressed for 18 months now, coupled with starting to get a grip on the current backlog. Countries with lower levels of vaccination might suffer quite a bit more, though. Either way, the emergency in places like Britain is over, and the WHO should call the pandemic over for Europe and North America come the spring.

[Wee Bully]

1 hour ago, btb said:

Genuinely don't understand your use of the gif  in relation to the stats 

It is deeply distasteful, but sadly not at all surprising.

[Billy Jean King]

Yes, it is the summer, but that's because this exit wave was finding the pockets of the population not yet infected or vaccinated because the virus had become so easily transmitted - it's probably a good thing that this happened now. You're looking at ~93% of the UK population with detectable antibodies. Just like we have 'mild' influenza seasons, I wouldn't be surprised if this winter was actually fairly quiet in terms of Covid because of such high levels of immunity.
In time, however, when there is no longer a naive population, immunity will likely wane more predictably with the seasons once we exit the pandemic stage in the northern hemisphere. I suspect this will be the case next summer, i.e. we won't see what we have this year and then there will be a resurgence next winter, but with nothing close to the levels of death we have seen up until now.
In short, there might be some small flare ups, but honestly I think the main pressure on the NHS this winter will be from all respiratory viruses that have been suppressed for 18 months now, coupled with starting to get a grip on the current backlog. Countries with lower levels of vaccination might suffer quite a bit more, though. Either way, the emergency in places like Britain is over, and the WHO should call the pandemic over for Europe and North America come the spring.

Pretty sure the WHO are in the "nobodies safe until everyone's safe" camp and as such will only declare the pandemic over on a global level not on a country by country or continental basis. The most optimistic "gueses" seem to be mid Spring / early summer 2022. Your go to Balloux fella was in that camp this week so probably 8 to 10 months in a pandemic state to go at the very minimum with the like's of Whitty and JVT constantly warning of a "very bumpy winter" whatever that means. Just yesterday UK had the highest deaths since the dark days if March !

[btb]

41 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Yes, it is the summer, but that's because this exit wave was finding the pockets of the population not yet infected or vaccinated because the virus had become so easily transmitted - it's probably a good thing that this happened now. You're looking at ~93% of the UK population with detectable antibodies. Just like we have 'mild' influenza seasons, I wouldn't be surprised if this winter was actually fairly quiet in terms of Covid because of such high levels of immunity.

In time, however, when there is no longer a naive population, immunity will likely wane more predictably with the seasons once we exit the pandemic stage in the northern hemisphere. I suspect this will be the case next summer, i.e. we won't see what we have this year and then there will be a resurgence next winter, but with nothing close to the levels of death we have seen up until now.

In short, there might be some small flare ups, but honestly I think the main pressure on the NHS this winter will be from all respiratory viruses that have been suppressed for 18 months now, coupled with starting to get a grip on the current backlog. Countries with lower levels of vaccination might suffer quite a bit more, though. Either way, the emergency in places like Britain is over, and the WHO should call the pandemic over for Europe and North America come the spring.

For me the UK government has reached the point where it is prepared to live with current levels of the now endemic Covid (it's certainly not been licked) - there were strong arguments for relaxing Covid restrictions down south last month (and on Monday here) but BJs "if not now when" wasn't one of them just his typical laziness and inability to go the distance.  You might be correct that we'll see a "fairly quiet winter in terms of Covid" I just don't share your optimism at this point.

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, btb said:

But this is the summer. 

It might be the case that the flu & the rona will be competing to kill the same segment of population in the coming winter but overall I don't share your optimism.

What other segment are going to be badly affected by one but not the other? We know what the chief co-morbidities are and they're all perfectly obvious (old, fat, chronic illnesses). That's your standard January haul right there but before March 2020 nobody drenched their knickers about it. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by vikingTON

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

2 hours ago, Elixir said:

More pushback on ITV News tonight about testing for travel. Good to see. Surely it's only a matter of time until the UK Government are forced to stand this nonsense down. This time next year travel numbers probably won't be too far off 2019 levels in Europe and North America - if these barriers are gone.

The UK government may stand this nonsense down, but there's no guarantee that countries the world over will want us Brits travelling any time soon. 

Take the USA for instance, many States are worried about increasing deaths and hospitalisations. There's no indication at all that the US government are about to throw the door open to UK travellers, no matter how many restrictions we ease over here. 

Equally, the EU is hardly rushing to welcome us back. We're still on the red list for many countries, and it hardly helps that they fucking hate us because we have a khunt as Prime Minister. 

Real politik means that in the medium term, the EU and UK will grudgingly come to some sort of agreement to allow vaccinated travellers to move back and forward more freely, but the return of travel to pre-covid levels does not seem to be as simple and easy as some predicted less than 12 months ago. 

 

[Marshmallo]

8 hours ago, philpy said:

Bit of confusion about some of the rules. Guys that play football together every week at lower levels (EOSL, etc), can't shower after games or training,  but yet showers at gyms and 5 a side centres are free to use???

Speaking as a man who got changed in a disabled toilet tonight before giving my textbook plodding display for an hour, I can confirm that fives changing rooms remain closed.

[Michael W]

True though it is that there are some countries with restrictions in place against the UK, that's not really the point we're getting at here. 

ALL travellers, double vaccinated or not, from all countries, are required to submit a negative test before travelling to the UK AND a subsequent day 2 test. That is in excess of what other countries are asking for and it is a major barrier to travel given the cost of the tests. 

I saw Javid having a moan about the cost of them the other day. I wonder why they might be so costly; can't be because the government mandates them and you're up shit creek if you don't get one, can it? It's a captive market. 

[UsedToGoToCentralPark]

Speaking as a man who got changed in a disabled toilet tonight before giving my textbook plodding display for an hour, I can confirm that fives changing rooms remain closed.

To say we are beyond level zero is really taking the pish.

[101]

That's me pfizered out wur tits.

They had changed the layout so they could do double the amount of folk which was good to see and it was rammed, although the receptionist had to turn someone away who hadn't waited 8 weeks because of a shortage of jags for all today's appointments.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

6 minutes ago, Michael W said:

True though it is that there are some countries with restrictions in place against the UK, that's not really the point we're getting at here. 

ALL travellers, double vaccinated or not, from all countries, are required to submit a negative test before travelling to the UK AND a subsequent day 2 test. That is in excess of what other countries are asking for and it is a major barrier to travel given the cost of the tests. 

I saw Javid having a moan about the cost of them the other day. I wonder why they might be so costly; can't be because the government mandates them and you're up shit creek if you don't get one, can it? It's a captive market. 

I agree, but travel freedom requires reciprocal agreements. Despite a suggestion/promise/hope made over a year ago that all countries would work together to enable international travel to re-open, it's actually the opposite which has occured. 

Countries the world over are acting with a combination of self-interest and political agendas. The perception that international MUST re-open as soon as possible because hey, that's how things are, has proved false. 

We all hoped and believed that we could travel again from around spring this year, but in fact we're actually worse off than we were a year ago. There may be growing push back against these nutcase arbitrary requirements that the Tories put in place, and the insanity of the 'traffic light system', but I see little or no indication that travel restrictions are going to be lifted in any real or significant way this year. 

[Lyle Lanley]

Walking through the city centre in Edinburgh earlier today and noticed there is still some queuing systems outside of some shops. 
 

No reason for any of these shops to stick to daft rules like this when social distancing is gone. 

[Michael W]

13 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

I agree, but travel freedom requires reciprocal agreements. Despite a suggestion/promise/hope made over a year ago that all countries would work together to enable international travel to re-open, it's actually the opposite which has occured. 

Countries the world over are acting with a combination of self-interest and political agendas. The perception that international MUST re-open as soon as possible because hey, that's how things are, has proved false. 

We all hoped and believed that we could travel again from around spring this year, but in fact we're actually worse off than we were a year ago. There may be growing push back against these nutcase arbitrary requirements that the Tories put in place, and the insanity of the 'traffic light system', but I see little or no indication that travel restrictions are going to be lifted in any real or significant way this year. 

I don't disagree, but it's too bad at the moment, ultimately. The UK amber list for example required (possibly still does?) double-vaxxed non-nationals and residents to isolate for 10 days after arrival. This includes countries that don't impose the same on us. 

I also agree that we are stuck with these things for some time, but it's only through applying pressure that we'll get rid of them. It may take a while. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Michael W

[Elixir]

2 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

Pretty sure the WHO are in the "nobodies safe until everyone's safe" camp and as such will only declare the pandemic over on a global level not on a country by country or continental basis. The most optimistic "gueses" seem to be mid Spring / early summer 2022. Your go to Balloux fella was in that camp this week so probably 8 to 10 months in a pandemic state to go at the very minimum with the like's of Whitty and JVT constantly warning of a "very bumpy winter" whatever that means. Just yesterday UK had the highest deaths since the dark days if March !

Well, yes. Certainly by April/May next year Covid will be an utter irrelevance in most of the world. Even more so in the UK than it already is now.

 

2 hours ago, btb said:

For me the UK government has reached the point where it is prepared to live with current levels of the now endemic Covid (it's certainly not been licked) - there were strong arguments for relaxing Covid restrictions down south last month (and on Monday here) but BJs "if not now when" wasn't one of them just his typical laziness and inability to go the distance.  You might be correct that we'll see a "fairly quiet winter in terms of Covid" I just don't share your optimism at this point.

What do you mean? SAGE gave the go ahead for the 19 July unlocking after getting 21 June pushed back.

 

32 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

The UK government may stand this nonsense down, but there's no guarantee that countries the world over will want us Brits travelling any time soon. 

Take the USA for instance, many States are worried about increasing deaths and hospitalisations. There's no indication at all that the US government are about to throw the door open to UK travellers, no matter how many restrictions we ease over here. 

Equally, the EU is hardly rushing to welcome us back. We're still on the red list for many countries, and it hardly helps that they fucking hate us because we have a khunt as Prime Minister. 

Real politik means that in the medium term, the EU and UK will grudgingly come to some sort of agreement to allow vaccinated travellers to move back and forward more freely, but the return of travel to pre-covid levels does not seem to be as simple and easy as some predicted less than 12 months ago.

While it's true that some countries will take a bit longer to end the dick measuring, if the UK binned the testing nonsense now, there would still be plenty of options to travel to hassle free in Europe if you're fully vaxxed. Come next summer things should be just fine, but hopefully even sooner.

[The Master]

5 minutes ago, Lyle Lanley said:

Walking through the city centre in Edinburgh earlier today and noticed there is still some queuing systems outside of some shops. 
 

No reason for any of these shops to stick to daft rules like this when social distancing is gone. 

RBS in Dundee still had someone at the door asking why people were there and were they sure it wasn’t something they could do via online or phone banking. 

[gav-ffc]

2 minutes ago, The Master said:

RBS in Dundee still had someone at the door asking why people were there and were they sure it wasn’t something they could do via online or phone banking. 

Our RBS has been doing that for a few years before COVID to be fair.