Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[betting competition]

54 minutes ago, Left Back said:

Going to a gig in England at the weekend.  Just received an email saying we need to either prove vaccination status, provide evidence of a negative LFT from that day or natural immunity by providing evidence of a positive PCR within the last 180 days.

Welcome to the new normal.  Didn't think these rules were kicking in until the end of the month in England.

There was a gig at Mono last week where you had to take LFT before the gig. 

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, Michael W said:

Tell her to buy a FFP3 mask and shut up.

Don't forget safety goggles, which the we care more brigade have conveniently ditched from their hazmat uniform. 

[Aladdin]

1 hour ago, Left Back said:

Going to a gig in England at the weekend.  Just received an email saying we need to either prove vaccination status, provide evidence of a negative LFT from that day or natural immunity by providing evidence of a positive PCR within the last 180 days.

Welcome to the new normal.  Didn't think these rules were kicking in until the end of the month in England.

That will just be the venue's own policy. Quite a few places up here are doing similar.  With the option to demonstrate a negative test, there isn't really too much that can be done about it.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

To be fair, I see the Scottish Govt have now started a tv campaign encouraging folk not to get tested. 
 

Spoiler

 

[scottsdad]

1 minute ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

To be fair, I see the Scottish Govt have now started a tv campaign encouraging folk not to get tested. 
 

  Hide contents

 

Why is she holding a sounding rod? 

If that's the test that will stop the spike, no thanks. 

[Wee Bully]

33 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I understand where they are coming from, but what I don't understand is why we are doing it.

What is the ultimate goal of testing 1 in every 100 people each day, alongside the complete absence of any other measures?

It doesn't make sense.

I think it's quite clear now that the vaccines aren't tremendous at preventing transmission, but they are very good at preventing serious disease. So if we are happy to bin distancing and capacity limits (which I feel is right given the vaccine coverage), then continuing to contact trace and mass test asymptomatic people seems like a complete waste of time, which achieves absolutely nothing other than being disruptive to business and people's lives.

Swinney said the SG have abandoned their zero covid stance. Accept then it is here to stay and get on with life.

Because it allows us, in real time, to see the impact of the vaccines, and whether the introduction of any variants changes this.

There is a fabulous chart on Travelling Tabby showing the difference this time to previous waves.  If we only carried out 10% (say) of the amount of tests we are currently carrying out, the data would have a case rate of 600 rather than 6000, and it wouldn’t be clear at all that the vaccines are having any effect. 

It is providing data proving what you want it to - that the vaccines are the difference. 

I’m also glad that there is apparently a “complete absence of any other measures”.  I was sure from reading the last 100 pages or so that the SG had kept some highly unpopular measures, but obviously not.

[superbigal]

Home Nations Daily update  :  UK Average 356.1 to 362.9 up 1.91%, England 303.2 to 309.4 up 2.04%, Wales 445.5 to 465.2 up 4.42%, Northern Ireland  560.8 to 545.9 down 2.66%

UK, England & Wales back on the rise as the schools return.

Scotland has the top 9 infected council areas in UK and 17 of the top 20.

[Todd_is_God]

54 minutes ago, Wee Bully said:

Because it allows us, in real time, to see the impact of the vaccines, and whether the introduction of any variants changes this.

There is a fabulous chart on Travelling Tabby showing the difference this time to previous waves.  If we only carried out 10% (say) of the amount of tests we are currently carrying out, the data would have a case rate of 600 rather than 6000, and it wouldn’t be clear at all that the vaccines are having any effect. 

It is providing data proving what you want it to - that the vaccines are the difference. 

I’m also glad that there is apparently a “complete absence of any other measures”.  I was sure from reading the last 100 pages or so that the SG had kept some highly unpopular measures, but obviously not.

Maybe so, but mass testing (and contact tracing) comes with significant downsides.

Your point about trends is flawed as well, as when you change multiple variables, comparisons are less robust. If we tested only people severely ill with covid, the number of covid deaths and patients in hospital would fall overnight. Similarly, testing shit loads of young adults and school kids and pointing at the difference in hospitalisation rates is also flawed. If you want to demonstrated the impact of vaccines, then you need to keep everything else constant.

The SG appear to be over-compensating for their complete failure to implement a robust testing regime when it really mattered. What is the end game? Where does the nonsense end?

[Detournement]

I've got a feeling that a lot of the viral stories we hear from hospitals are like this one. Fit and healthy people in their 30s dropping dead etc

[Wee Bully]

36 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

 

Your point about trends is flawed as well, as when you change multiple variables, comparisons are less robust. If we tested only people severely ill with covid, the number of covid deaths and patients in hospital would fall overnight. Similarly, testing shit loads of young adults and school kids and pointing at the difference in hospitalisation rates is also flawed. If you want to demonstrated the impact of vaccines, then you need to keep everything else constant.

 

The more data sets, the better.

The more people we test, the more we can accurately judge things like positivity rates, which can equally be measured against hospitalisations and deaths.  

The key to making good decisions is not to remove useful data from the equation.  I want the decision makers to have as much information in front of them as possible, so that they make informed decisions.  

[welshbairn]

Alberta regrets following the UK model and are now mandating masks for all public indoor spaces and offering $100 a jag. Shows how following other countries models can trip you up. Hospitalisations doubled in a fortnight after opening up.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-albertas-use-of-british-covid-19-data-was-a-miscalculation/

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, Wee Bully said:

The more data sets, the better.

The more people we test, the more we can accurately judge things like positivity rates, which can equally be measured against hospitalisations and deaths.  

The key to making good decisions is not to remove useful data from the equation.  I want the decision makers to have as much information in front of them as possible, so that they make informed decisions.  

I don't disagree with your underlying sentiment here. But, given it is not impact free, where does it end? What are we trying to achieve?

[Rob1885]

https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-lockdown-government-plans-october-firebreak-restrictions-hospital-admissions-1185533

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Rob1885 said:

https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-lockdown-government-plans-october-firebreak-restrictions-hospital-admissions-1185533

Simply not going to happen.

There is no noise at all about a furlough extension, which would be required for this.

Next the media will be telling us BJ is drawing up plans to deploy the Army should someone invade us.

[Thereisalight..]

Not 100% sure on this but I'm sure I heard on the radio earlier than Denmark and Ireland were ditching vaccine passports. Yet us and England are storming on with them. BJ and NS, two dangerous clowns 

[Detournement]

24 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

Not 100% sure on this but I'm sure I heard on the radio earlier than Denmark and Ireland were ditching vaccine passports. Yet us and England are storming on with them. BJ and NS, two dangerous clowns 

The same way Israel ditched them.

 

[101]

2 hours ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

To be fair, I see the Scottish Govt have now started a tv campaign encouraging folk not to get tested. 
 

  Hide contents

 

Surely she's not been recruited for an ad campaign? 

[Thereisalight..]

6 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The same way Israel ditched them.

 

And Moscow 

Worrying to hear Swinney say theyll be here permanently 

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

And Moscow 

Worrying to hear Swinney say theyll be here permanently 

He only said "depends on the course of the pandemic" when asked how long they'd be used for. Ireland have a date of 22st October "subject to public health advice".

[Michael W]

26 minutes ago, Rob1885 said:

https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-lockdown-government-plans-october-firebreak-restrictions-hospital-admissions-1185533

The Government could put a lid on cases and reverse the growth by shutting down schools and moving that all on line. They won't, but it would have an impact. Of course vaccinating 12-15s would also help here so we'll see where that goes. 

That reads like a deliberate leak, to me. The Coronavirus Act expires at the end of this month and there's f**k all chance it's going to be allowed to lapse. The JCVI has also made an unpopular recommendation (or lack thereof) RE vaccines too and we have the hideous vaccine passports as well that will be put in Parliament very shortly. This looks like the Government seeking leverage - back us or it's lockdown. 

The stuff about lockdown if hospitalisations don't start reducing is also backwards. There are only a few things that have reliably lead to reductions in cases: 

1) The home nations being knocked out the Euros

2) Schools being on holiday

3) Lockdown

There is no 1 and 2 now so there's only one choice open. The absolute shitshow last year with the tiers/levels simply didn't work and cases continued to rise. Perhaps the measures might have dented the growth in case rates, but that's a best case scenario and we still ended up with a prolonged lockdown from December. Ultimately, cases do no not go down by themselves so the threats of lockdown if we don't see a reverse is pretty much a foregone conclusion. Shutting the schools would work but the rest of society will be banned before that happens.