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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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Especially if people are watching it through the filter of some clueless BBC talking heads rather than cutting out the middle man and following American sources. American Dems on twitter have been very upbeat for many hours since Arizona started to be declared as having flipped and have been explaining what would likely be unfolding subsequent to that, while some of the more honest Republicans have been quite glum. Not over till the fat lady sings but this latest turn of events shouldn't be the surprise that it appears to be for some.

The BBC are pretty clueless for stuff here so hardly a surprise that something elsewhere in the world would be the same.
Anyway. Mon the Biden.
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Again, the 'protectors of freedom and democracy' on the right are crying fraud as loudly as they can because 'it's never been done before' that votes are counted after election day.

Despite that being the case for LITERALLY every US election that vote counting goes on for days, sometimes weeks afterwards.

These are the same people who revel in the phrases 'cry more libtards' and 'drinking liberal tears', now unironically crying rivers.

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1 hour ago, GordonS said:

Biden needs 58.72% of the remaining 1,384,943 votes in Michigan and 68.37% of the remaining  1,845,198  in Pennsylvania. Michigan is achievable but Pennsylvania will be tough. About 400,000 of those votes are from Philadelphia, where he's currently on 73.3%.

NYT guy says Biden currently leads mail-ins in Pennsylvania 78-21. If that continues he'll pass Trump with enough to spare.

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11 minutes ago, GordonS said:

NYT guy says Biden currently leads mail-ins in Pennsylvania 78-21. If that continues he'll pass Trump with enough to spare.

Some fucking laugh if Biden wins the rest of these states and it ends up not even close in terms of seat numbers.

All because those who defied Trump, decided they didn't want to go out on election day and stand in crowds for 5 hours to vote, decided to do so from the comfort and safety of their own home.

The mail in vote was always going to be heavily in favour of Biden. Given the agendas pushed by both candidates, most mail-ins were always likely to be liberal voters who were always going to not fancy going out to stand in lines during a pandemic with folk who don't wear masks.

Edited by djchapsticks
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37 minutes ago, Gaz said:

There have been various studies both here / in the USA that show if you show a voter a Sanders / Labour policy people will agree with it and think it is A Good Idea, but then as soon as you tell them that it's a Sanders / Labour policy it becomes A Very Bad Thing.

Bernie polled better than Biden versus Trump and better than Biden on policy.

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Just now, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Bernie polled better than Biden versus Trump and better than Biden on policy.

Bernie should have got the nod in 2016. Shame the Dems had to nominate the only possible candidate to be more hated than Trump at the time.

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More I look at this more it looks like Biden edges it.

Absolutely wild that it's come to this given the last four years. Democrats done their best to throw it away. And in a way they have, because they won't have control of the Senate.

Edited by G51
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11 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:


The BBC are pretty clueless for stuff here so hardly a surprise that something elsewhere in the world would be the same.
Anyway. Mon the Biden.

538 is my go to, and I think most people.  The live coverage on television is a toss up, but the BBC tends to be more reserved in its prediction, as it requires more confirming sources than Sky.   It’s true for elections here too.

That being said, Nate Silver is contributing nothing by way of helpful assistance at the moment.

 

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10 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

Some fucking laugh if Biden wins the rest of these states and it ends up not even close in terms of seat numbers.

All because those who defied Trump, decided they didn't want to go out on election day and stand in crowds for 5 hours to vote, decided to do so from the comfort and safety of their own home.

The mail in vote was always going to be heavily in favour of Biden. Given the agendas pushed by both candidates, most mail-ins were always likely to be liberal voters were always going to not fancy going out to stand in lines during a pandemic with folk who don't wear masks.

Trump literally cost himself the election if that plays out.

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2 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

538 is my go to, and I think most people.  The live coverage on television is a toss up, but the BBC tends to be more reserved in its prediction, as it requires more confirming sources than Sky.   It’s true for elections here too.

That being said, Nate Silver is contributing nothing by way of helpful assistance at the moment.

 

With all due respect to Nate Silver, he's less accurate than a flipped coin when it comes to political forecasting.

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