djchapsticks Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Gaz said: Trump drifting quite a bit at the bookies. Currently 6/4 at Ladbrokes. The bookies react to the exchanges and Trump is now out to just under 2/1 (2.94), Biden is sitting at 1/2 (1.5) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, GordonS said: Georgia is quite likely to go to Biden. He needs 62.6% of the remaining votes and given they're mail-ins from around Atlanta, he should definitely make that. Meanwhile at the White House... Edited November 4, 2020 by Granny Danger 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdinburghPar1975 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just flicked onto CNN there and they're reporting that the Republicans are really not happy with his press conference asking for voting to stop and claiming all sorts of fraud. He might have made that call a bit early for some of them to stomach it and might have pushed it too far for a lot of them now. To question the thing that they claim to believe in the most - democracy seems a really strange move... ...apart from trying to mobilise his radical followers into conspiracy and reprisals of course... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee-Bey Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Current odds on Skybet. Wisconsin and Michigan are the opposite of what they were around 1 am. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G51 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, GordonS said: The Senate is really hard for Democrats, because every shitkicker redneck state gets the same representation as New York or California. The natural balance of states is probably 22-28 ish to Republicans. That's a useful analogy, considering he's giving probabilities, not predictions. Like tossing a coin, a prediction is inherently arbitrary and usually based on biases and opinions, but probability is based on numbers. I don't see any reason at all to disagree that Trump had a 10% chance of winning the electoral college at the start of the night, based on what we actually knew. Miami-Dade was a shock to everyone and if that had turned the other way this would all have been over by 2am. Even now, Biden is arguably ahead 306-232. Georgia is quite likely to go to Biden. He needs 62.6% of the remaining votes and given they're mail-ins from around Atlanta, he should definitely make that. The Senate is hard, but America has just suffered disaster after disaster for four years and all the polling said these races were close. The Senate was eminently winnable. And if it wasn't, maybe you have to do something to appeal to some of those rural areas? Surely the basis for disagreeing with 538's model is that their assumptions which underpin the model have been shown to be inherently wrong throughout the course of tonight, particularly with regards to the swing to Trump from black and Hispanic voters? If you're assumptions aren't good, then your model isn't. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thereisalight.. Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden will win, he’s a dottery old fool but when you’re up against Trump that means nothing 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaz Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 He's sitting at 238 the now according to the Guardian. In the lead in Nevada (6 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes). If he can take Georgia as well (16 votes) that'd be the 270. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Don't really understand this take. Biden is every bit in the pocket of the health insurance companies in the US as Trump is, perhaps even more so. So if there's going to be a US-UK trade deal (and there will be, there's no real gain to Americans not to do it), he's still going to be looking for parts of the NHS in exchange.Biden is no fan of Brexit, and I'm not convinced he or his handlers will be in any rush for a trade deal. Johnson desperately needs a quick fix to put a spin on the Brexit disaster, and Trump would be more likely to provide that - and at whatever cost with idiots like Truss involved. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, EdinburghPar1975 said: Just flicked onto CNN there and they're reporting that the Republicans are really not happy with his press conference asking for voting to stop and claiming all sorts of fraud. He might have made that call a bit early for some of them to stomach it and might have pushed it too far for a lot of them now... Al Gore was eventually told to knock the hanging chad stuff on the head by his own party hierarchy. If Biden has clearly won in a much more clear cut manner than Bush did that time, mainstream Republicans will probably do much the same. Edited November 4, 2020 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Gaz said: He's sitting at 238 the now according to the Guardian. In the lead in Nevada (6 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes). If he can take Georgia as well (16 votes) that'd be the 270. You don’t get to backtrack. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Of the last 499,789 votes counted in Michigan between the two main candidates, Biden has taken 339,188 (67.9%) and Trump 160,601 (32.1%). Before these came in Biden needed 58.7% of the remaining votes. He now needs just 53.54% of the c.890,000 remaining votes. It would surely be a surprise now if Biden didn't win it. Biden's lead is now up in Wisconsin, with Green Bay coming in. With 91% reporting he's 11,000ish ahead, with more Democrat votes to come in Kenosha county. I'm now at the point of calling this election. I say it's over, regardless of Pennsylvania. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G51 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, O'Kelly Isley III said: 32 minutes ago, G51 said: Don't really understand this take. Biden is every bit in the pocket of the health insurance companies in the US as Trump is, perhaps even more so. So if there's going to be a US-UK trade deal (and there will be, there's no real gain to Americans not to do it), he's still going to be looking for parts of the NHS in exchange. Biden is no fan of Brexit, and I'm not convinced he or his handlers will be in any rush for a trade deal. Johnson desperately needs a quick fix to put a spin on the Brexit disaster, and Trump would be more likely to provide that - and at whatever cost with idiots like Truss involved. I'm sure that the people behind Biden's campaign will see just as much opportunity in a UK trade deal as Trumps would. Americans don't really care about Brexit. It's extremely difficult to see Biden holding out of a US-UK deal that would give him some positive headlines and allow his donors to make more money just because of it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaz Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: You don’t get to backtrack. Deleted my original reply to this as it was a bit mean. Trust me, I'd love to have been wrong! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Gaz said: How did that Brexit vote work out for you? Not the way I wanted tbf. Hopefully the result will push us to Independence sooner rather than later. So swings and rollercoasters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaz Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Am I right in thinking that Arizona is the only state declared so far that has flipped? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Washington DC have legalised magic mushrooms on the ballot, quite appropriately imo. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Gaz said: Deleted my original reply to this as it was a bit mean. Trust me, I'd love to have been wrong! Too late I have captured it for posterity! I appreciate the sentiment though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zidane's child Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Is Biden on 224 or 238? I’m seeing different updates from different news channels 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bob Mahelp Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Gaz said: Am I right in thinking that Arizona is the only state declared so far that has flipped? So far, yes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bohemian Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, zidane's child said: Is Biden on 224 or 238? I’m seeing different updates from different news channels 224 -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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