welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 minute ago, LongTimeLurker said: Don't have time for pish like this. If you think I support Trump you can get to a place rhyming with luck. I don't, just never found anything to back up the Clinton accusations. They've been investigated more than any couple on the planet probably, by very hostile people, and they've found zilch. Casually dropping "widely believed" insinuates guilt. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said: Can remember arguing on here that Trump could win last time around and being met with a lot of skepticism. The difference this time is that US media people should have learned not to underestimate how deeply alienated a large portion of the working class white American population is from the coastal liberal elites for economic reasons and how Trump is able to tap into that very effectively with a nationalist and anti-globalist message. Michael Moore articulated what was happening very well at the time in 2016 and an ex-pat Scottish economist called Mark Blyth has also been worth a listen subsequently. If US pollsters are weighting their numbers properly this time to take into account education level amongst white respondents rather than having their polling skewed more than it should be towards college graduates then Trump's shot at victory should be sunk without trace at this point based on the polling numbers that are being reported and the evidence of higher than usual turnouts. We'll only really know if they have adjusted for those factors properly and are now able to properly quantify pro-Trump voting trends that they missed last time when the results start coming in. Last time state polls didn't account for educational level but national polls did, which is why the national polls were within a couple of points while state polls were miles off. The state polls all include educational level now, so they might still be missing some but it shouldn't be anywhere near the same level. Of course, every polling screw-up is novel and they always change them to fix the last problem, so you never know if some new error will arise. I though 538 had it about right last time, with a 30%-ish chance for Trump. This time they have Trump at 10% and that feels about right too. But things with a 10% chance of happening happen all the time, so this is not over. There has to be more chance of a Biden landslide than any sort of Trump win. But fear is still stopping me from revising my pessimistic prediction. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) I don't support Trump. f**k off with this shite, welshbairn. I am not insinuating anything. Edited November 1, 2020 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 16 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Think Biden will win quite comfortably but there are enough outlier polls that put Trump where he needs to be for there to be room for concern. Overall Sleepy Joe doesn't resonate like Crooked Hillary did, and the Hunter Biden in Ukraine angle pales in comparison to what is widely believed about the Clintons. Hillary was despised. This time Biden isn't, but Trump is. That's probably going to be the story of the election. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 I think this nails it. This is the most consequential election in our life times. I try to dial back the drama and chill everyone out. But this election is about the rule of law. Nixon was tamed by the Senate. This time that failed. Now the last check and balance is in play. The people. FDR winning in 1940, Lincoln in 1860 probably mattered more. But outwith those, this is historic in that it is the last check on rising corruption, nepotism and populism. This is not 10% chance of Reagan, Bush or Bush2. Its 10% of Trump. Those are two very different 10%. I would say the exact same for a Democrat Trump. This is not about parties. Its about the hard wiring of democracy. To me the economic system is not as important as the underlying strength of the civic society. A well run capitalist, social democratic or socialist system will build and grow its economy, develop new technologies and tools for its people. Different rates and different distributions of the wealth but the fundamental of people having a say, being equal before the law and free from corruption will see the whole society gain ahead of theoretically better systems that lack the deeper hardwiring. This is a measure of corruption (image from wikipedia) That Germany\Scandinavia really stands out (And NZ). But people look at it and talk about its social democracy. These are all very capitalist societies. The homes of Volvo, BMW, Carlsberg, Nokia. My belief is that these are the countries with the strongest civic society and the strongest faith in the states institutions and where the those institutions are the fairest for all. Its earned over centuries and worked on all the time. America under its current regime is breaking these bonds harder than at any time since before the civil war. This is not left vs right. Its wrong vs right. Its competence over ideology. Its honour over party. Values matter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 28 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Don't have time for pish like this. If you think I support Trump you can get to a place rhyming with luck. Little Rock? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 16 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: I don't support Trump. f**k off with this shite, welshbairn. I am not insinuating anything. Sorry, didn't mean to come over like that. I've never thought you supported Trump if it matters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, GordonS said: Hillary was despised. This time Biden isn't, but Trump is. That's probably going to be the story of the election. Yes. There was definitely a Not Clinton vote in 2016. Not sure if there is much of a Not Biden vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, dorlomin said: I think this nails it. That Germany\Scandinavia really stands out (And NZ). I am red green colour blind. This map is totally confusing. Edited November 1, 2020 by Fullerene 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Excited for this tbh. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melanius Mullarkey Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 27 minutes ago, dorlomin said: This is not left vs right. Its wrong vs right. Its competence over ideology. Its honour over party. Values matter. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 That map must be from the same people who did the pandemic readiness assessment. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Everything is starting to get a bit heated in the US now. Lots of people pointing out that Trump's strategy will be to declare victory early and try to get the counting shut down. The right has been pushing "election day" the idea that the elections are one day one, quite hard. His hope is to be up in the midwest on the night and try to get people to stop the vote count before the big urban counties finish their tally. To me it reeks of desperation. No election is over by midnight. New York takes months to count up. His "all tactics no strategy" problem here is it is now so telegraphed to the press that they are ready for it. Much like his voter suppression by slowing the mail got so much press the Democrat vote got out early. This ultimately will go down to courts. Any effort to end the vote by state level legal teams will be shut down on the spot. The supreme court has been ruling strongly that states run their own elections. It looks a really long shot from here for him. If someone with more legal knowledge can shed light on more specific cases, then I am open to re-looking at this matter. But I feel its more in the "flag it up so we know its coming" camp of ideas. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 We should open our post-2020 book on a Biden presidency. I'll go first: Hunter becomes Secretary of Energy - 20/1 Biden drinks Flint water like his predecessor and dies 6/1 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 The GOP runs Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They're gonna count the election day votes and declare for Trump. Kavanaugh all but said this a few days ago. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/us/kavanaugh-voting-rights.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, NotThePars said: We should open our post-2020 book on a Biden presidency. I'll go first: Hunter becomes Secretary of Energy - 20/1 Biden drinks Flint water like his predecessor and dies 6/1 New public holiday: John McCain Day 33/1 Launches massive campaign with celebrities including Ellen and Jimmy Kimmel to help the US Army hire more female and LGBTQ drone operators. 4/1 Latin America coup: 8/11 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, Andrew Driver said: We'd need voter numbers to read too much into this. And States of where they will vote 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bob Mahelp Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 22 minutes ago, MixuFruit said: jings This suggests that Trump will win the popular vote. I'd be stunned if that happened. I think that, as happened 4 years ago, he could well win the electoral vote because he might (just) capture the swing states he needs, but I find it impossible to believe that he'll gain more actual votes than Biden. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said: The GOP runs Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They're gonna count the election day votes and declare for Trump. Kavanaugh all but said this a few days ago. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/us/kavanaugh-voting-rights.html Secretaries of State are ultimately their state’s chief election official; both WI and PA have Dem SOS’s. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oneteaminglasgow Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 14 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said: This suggests that Trump will win the popular vote. I'd be stunned if that happened. I think that, as happened 4 years ago, he could well win the electoral vote because he might (just) capture the swing states he needs, but I find it impossible to believe that he'll gain more actual votes than Biden. Only if the amount who have and haven’t voted are the same, or most haven’t already voted. If, as I’m sure was posted above, most people have already voted then Biden would have more. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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