The US Presidential election prediction thread

[ICTChris]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/02/henry-olsen-2020-president-congress-election-predictions/?arc404=true

[dorlomin]

1 hour ago, sonsism said:

Definitely not as much as that guy has put on Biden that’s for sure! It’s more of an “insurance policy” that if I wake up to the results and the worst has happened my wallet might be a little heavier. Tenner or something.

After your input I might split it and do one for Trump scraping it and one for Biden smashing it 300+  EC votes.
 

Biden needs to hit his polling numbers to break 300, so he is about evens (50% likely) to hit his numbers or above. (Edited though it gets messy but around 6-7% the map really changes for him. The EC is really stacked against the Dems this year. )

 

 

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by dorlomin

[Savage Henry]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

 

This guy refers to, well, everyone, as “53h8ers”.  

[dorlomin]

If I have understood the voting system in Florida correctly, these votes will be counted and released a couple of hours after polls close with the first resuts perhaps 30 minutes from counting going on through the day. 

 

The big caveat here is registered Democrat or Republican does not mean that is how you will vote. You could be an old Democrat who drifted right or a long term Reaganite who is voting Biden out of disgust at Trumps handling of Covid. 

 

 

Quote

 

Timing of results

Should be very fast. Florida is accustomed to handling a heavy volume of mail ballots and has laws (like letting counties process absentee ballots weeks in advance and not accepting most ballots that arrive after Election Day) that encourage an early count. In other words, results should be nearly complete within a couple hours of polls closing. That said, counties are allowed to take their time if needed, so some larger counties may still be tabulating mail ballots on Wednesday or later. That means that if a race is close, we might not know who won on election night.

Shift in results

The first batch of results, consisting of early votes and pre-tabulated mail ballots, is due to the secretary of state within 30 minutes of polls closing and will probably be skewed toward Democrats. Expect a red shift as Election Day votes are reported, however. If there are still mail ballots being counted on Wednesday or later, though, that could lead to a late blue shift.

 

 

Twitter is going to be Armageddon. 

[EdinburghPar1975]

the Republicans are really ramping up the voter fraud replies, absolute scenes and chaos if there are close calls.

General question though....what do folks think will happen if Biden is well in front in the EC votes and those declared aren't really close at all and then there is a contentious state...do you think the GOP will push the voter fraud line if it really makes no difference?

[carpetmonster]

18 minutes ago, EdinburghPar1975 said:

the Republicans are really ramping up the voter fraud replies, absolute scenes and chaos if there are close calls.

General question though....what do folks think will happen if Biden is well in front in the EC votes and those declared aren't really close at all and then there is a contentious state...do you think the GOP will push the voter fraud line if it really makes no difference?

Yes, absolutely. 
 

ETA - Trump’s MO his entire putrid existence has been litigate, litigate, litigate. He’s certainly not going to change that if he doesn’t even have to worry about having to find a new law firm because he stiffed the prior ones. 

Edited November 2, 2020 by carpetmonster

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, carpetmonster said:

Yes, absolutely. 
 

ETA - Trump’s MO his entire putrid existence has been litigate, litigate, litigate. He’s certainly not going to change that if he doesn’t even have to worry about having to find a new law firm because he stiffed the prior ones. 

If (a big if) he loses States like Florida and Georgia early in the count I think the GOP would pretty well give up, and Trump isn't going to pony up for his own legal fees. They might fight on for individual Senate seats though. 

Edited November 2, 2020 by welshbairn

[carpetmonster]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

If (a big if) he loses States like Florida and Georgia early in the count I think the GOP would pretty well give up, and Trump isn't going to pony up for his own legal fees. They might fight on for individual Senate seats though. 

And how many times has anyone in the GOP spoken up against Trump since he got the nomination in 2016?

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, carpetmonster said:

And how many times has anyone in the GOP spoken up against Trump since he got the nomination in 2016?

There will be a flood of them if he looks like losing badly, along with the Senate. Rats and ship come to mind. Lindsay Graham will be going on about how he tried to control his worst excesses and the fiscal conservatives will take back over with the Dems in control of the purse strings.

Edited November 2, 2020 by welshbairn

[DeeTillEhDeh]

the Republicans are really ramping up the voter fraud replies, absolute scenes and chaos if there are close calls.
General question though....what do folks think will happen if Biden is well in front in the EC votes and those declared aren't really close at all and then there is a contentious state...do you think the GOP will push the voter fraud line if it really makes no difference?

Any attempt to try and steal this election might possibly lead to riots.

[LongTimeLurker]

50 minutes ago, carpetmonster said:

And how many times has anyone in the GOP spoken up against Trump since he got the nomination in 2016?

How many times did BBC people speak out against Jimmy Saville and Rolf Harris? That's how hierarchical structures work. If he is clearly losing tomorrow there won't be an orderly queue to stick the boot in, there will be a feeding frenzy.

Trump is an entryist outsider that was foisted on the Republicans by a grassroots populist movement that the party bigwigs never wanted but lacked the levers to block unlike the Democrats with Bernie Sanders.

[carpetmonster]

Just now, LongTimeLurker said:

How many times did BBC people speak out against Jimmy Saville and Rolf Harris? That's how hierarchical structures work. If he is clearly losing tomorrow there won't be an orderly queue to stick the boot in, there will be a feeding frenzy.

Trump is an entryist outsider that was foisted on the Republicans by a grassroots populist movement that the party bigwigs never wanted but lacked the levers to block unlike the Democrats with Bernie Sanders.

Alternate take, which folks like Steve Schmidt have been putting over the last couple of weeks - if Trump gets annihilated and there’s a big swing of the so called ‘Reagan Republicans’ to Biden, then the GOP won’t have anyone left to appeal to bar the racists, conspiracy theorists and QAnon loonballs; they’ll have to embrace the Trumpists to stave off extinction. 

[welshbairn]

26 minutes ago, willis said:

 

Not true. Almost every Trump voter I know only says so in private conversation due to the social cost. 2016 Dem voters who are now crossing to vote Reps are also reticent to say so as they bear an even larger social cost by outing themselves.

What you talking about Willis? How many Biden voters do you think might be shy about who they're voting with Trumpets for neighbours? And they're nearly all telephone or internet polls, so how shy do you have to be? How shy are you Willis?

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, carpetmonster said:

Alternate take, which folks like Steve Schmidt have been putting over the last couple of weeks - if Trump gets annihilated and there’s a big swing of the so called ‘Reagan Republicans’ to Biden, then the GOP won’t have anyone left to appeal to bar the racists, conspiracy theorists and QAnon loonballs; they’ll have to embrace the Trumpists to stave off extinction. 

I think they'd still have a big market for low spending, minimal Government conservatives and the ones who see the post WW2 institutions like the UN worth preserving.

[NotThePars]

Any attempt to try and steal this election might possibly lead to riots.

Can’t see anyone other than this woman leading the march


https://streamable.com/pghx8s

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

4 hours ago, madwullie said:

Trump imo

Bet wasnt placed in Roubles. 

[Savage Henry]

1 hour ago, willis said:

 

Not true. Almost every Trump voter I know only says so in private conversation due to the social cost. 2016 Dem voters who are now crossing to vote Reps are also reticent to say so as they bear an even larger social cost by outing themselves.

Alright.  Who is this then?

[dorlomin]

1 hour ago, carpetmonster said:

Alternate take, which folks like Steve Schmidt have been putting over the last couple of weeks - if Trump gets annihilated and there’s a big swing of the so called ‘Reagan Republicans’ to Biden, then the GOP won’t have anyone left to appeal to bar the racists, conspiracy theorists and QAnon loonballs; they’ll have to embrace the Trumpists to stave off extinction. 

Decades in the making. Since Gingrinch picked up the gavel and started playing hard ball, almost every move has been to turn towards a rural, non college educated, white, religious voter base in a country that is becoming more urban, educated, non white and less religious. They have managed to pull in some Hispanics, enough to stave off a lock out from the house and White House. But the base become increasingly radicalised by talk radio (not something you hear about but its a real major part of life in flyover country), Fox and self sealed online communities. The Tea Party was the harbinger of how deep into "epistemic closure" (a phrase some conservatives were using about 10 years ago to politely say "batshit crazy) their base had sunk. 

2016 they were flapping around for a new identity, a latino like Rubio, an African American like Carson or a continuity character like Jeb Bush. Trump, the old scammer seen them for what they were. Directionless and befret of idea. The natural confidence trickster promised the base the world, a return to the 50s, a new Reaganism and they ate it up. In some ways he was the Republicans Craig Whyte. His campaign promised the electorate the moon on a stick, but again, fake it till you make it won out. 

His kakistocracy shed every moderate voter while the Tea Party mind set swallowed what remained of the Republican base. For me Susan Collins voting through Kavinaugh is probably when suburban woman gave up on him. And was a huge flag that the whole Republican party had been consumed by the "always hardball all the time" attitude. The era of bipartisan deal making was burnt out in the scorched earth politics.

Decades.

f**k them. 

I am getting in popcorn for tomorrow night. 

Some one asked, will they scream foul? Like a junkie seeing the last tenner spent, they know their last chance of getting anything out of this political cycle will be an epic dummy spit and hope that the 1% chance falls for them and some mad combination of courts, whipped up Y'all Qaeda outrage and just shear brass neckedness turns up another last high from a court decision on the electoral collage. 

Just a quick reread, their c**ts, f**k them, I have popcorn, all the main points I wanted. 

 

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by dorlomin

[D Angelo Barksdale]

'Come out ye Orange Tans'

Biden /Harris 2020

Tiocfaidh ár málárkey

 

[welshbairn]

Well fuckme @dorlomin, that is a masterpiece! Just shows what you can do when you throw off your professorial take me seriously you fucking ignorant monkeys hat!