DeeTillEhDeh Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Good article on likely times states will be called (assuming exit polls etc allow the networks to do so) . A few early ones to watch out for: 7.00pm ET (midnight GMT) - Georgia 7.30pm ET (12.30am GMT) - North Carolina, Ohio 8,00pm ET (1.00am GMT) - New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida 9.00pm ET (2.00am GMT) - Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Texas https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-candidates-might-fall-short-of-270-electoral-votes-on-election-night-but-how-close-might-they-get/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, GordonS said: Trafalgar Group aren't pollsters, they're Republican activists. Everything in the piece is "they would say that, wouldn't they". Anyone who's looked at a poll by decent UK pollsters will know it runs to pages with full break down in unweighted, weighted and percentages for all the different demographics. Below is the entirety of what Trafalgar just published for their last North Carolina poll. Also, any pollster who gives numbers to decimal points probably shouldn't be taken seriously. We'll find out who was calling it correctly soon enough. American society is so bitterly polarised right now that I don't think it is safe to assume that any news outlet or polling outlet is free of bias at the moment. Trafalgar Group's argument appears to be that you need something quick and easy to do to facilitate representative sampling along with a who is your social circle voting for type question to pick up shy Trump voters to get an accurate reading of public opinion. I hope they are wrong on their numbers as they are not what I want to see happen with this election but don't see that as a sound basis for concluding that is the case. Their arguments are plausible enough that it will be interesting to see what unfolds. Edited November 3, 2020 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melanius Mullarkey Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 10 hours ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said: 'Come out ye Orange Tans' Biden /Harris 2020 Tiocfaidh ár málárkey Leave me out of this. Thank you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdinburghPar1975 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Seeing the boarding up of Washington and the non-scalable fencing going up at the White House should be (you'd think!) a reminder to the voters in the US of everything that is wrong with their country. In no country that is 'free' and democratic should you need to board up places in case of a riot should an election going the wrong way and folks just not having faith in the system whichever side of the fence you're on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Waldo Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Well, whatever happens today, it's gonna be a riot. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 A narrow Biden win will result in riots in almost every american city. Trump will whip up his thick as f**k base with conspiracy theories and absolute mayhem will ensue. The "Trump Train" videos are evidence enough of their mentality. As an aside, do all Trump fans drive hugely oversized trucks? You'd think they were all ignorant, impotent gun-toting hicks or something. If Biden wins, it has to be a total thumping so Trump's whining about a "fix" will be roundly ignored by everyone except his most committed nutjob fans. Trump's post-defeat tantrum will of course be hilarious viewing and absolute SCENES, but the fallout will inevitably be a shit-ton of violence across the US. If he tries to mewl his way to a pardon in exchange for a smooth transfer of power to Biden I hope he is told to f**k off, and has every single aspect of his life and business thoroughly investigated. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Melanius Mullarkey said: Leave me out of this. Thank you. Your time is almost up. Get him Joe. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said: A narrow Biden win will result in riots in almost every american city. Trump will whip up his thick as f**k base with conspiracy theories and absolute mayhem will ensue. The "Trump Train" videos are evidence enough of their mentality. As an aside, do all Trump fans drive hugely oversized trucks? You'd think they were all ignorant, impotent gun-toting hicks or something. If Biden wins, it has to be a total thumping so Trump's whining about a "fix" will be roundly ignored by everyone except his most committed nutjob fans. Trump's post-defeat tantrum will of course be hilarious viewing and absolute SCENES, but the fallout will inevitably be a shit-ton of violence across the US. If he tries to mewl his way to a pardon in exchange for a smooth transfer of power to Biden I hope he is told to f**k off, and has every single aspect of his life and business thoroughly investigated. There will be trouble in the streets with a narrow win in either direction because plenty of people on both sides are lapping up the idea that the other side is trying to fix the outcome and there are people on the left as well as the right of American politics that are not shy about going onto the streets for some vigorous protest. Hopefully there will be a Biden landslide with Senate and House majorities also secured by the Democrats and the Republicans will conclude that they need to moderate to regain power given the way demography is shifting against them. Might be a couple of election cycles too soon for that though because Texas flipping will be what resets American politics and that's still in longshot territory this time around. Edited November 3, 2020 by LongTimeLurker 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) Betting wise, according to 538 a relatively small polling error could give Biden a landslide victory ie 400 electoral votes, whereas it would take a huge one for Trump to scrape 270. https://abcnews.go.com/fivethirtyeight/video/election-map-polling-error-fivethirtyeight-73984380 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast/ Edited November 3, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 13 hours ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said: Mind Swampy had that alias where he pretended to be some American pizza delivery guy in New Jersey who had innocently stumbled upon the politics sub forum of a Scottish football website. 11 hours ago, Savage Henry said: That was after he was a Scottish SNP voting activist c*** from Greenock, but before he was an American c*** golf fan from the Deep South. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Betting wise, according to 538 a relatively small polling error could give Biden a landslide victory ie 400 electoral votes, whereas it would take a huge one for Trump to scrape 270. https://abcnews.go.com/fivethirtyeight/video/election-map-polling-error-fivethirtyeight-73984380 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast/ Even with a 3% error to Trump (like 2016), Biden we still get 278 Electoral College votes - only 270 are required. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GNU_Linux Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 I hope the old white guy beats the other old white guy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 22 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: Even with a 3% error to Trump (like 2016), Biden we still get 278 Electoral College votes - only 270 are required. Biden needing to be +3% on the popular vote to win on the electoral college and the possibility of a 3% shy Trump voter undercount phenomenon is the reason few are comfortable discounting a Trump victory as a slight possibility even with the poll leads where they are. That sort of scenario would probably revolve around Pennsylvania and be uncomfortably close, if Biden recovers the Wisconsin and Michigan portion of the blue wall. Beyond that the state Trump fanboys seem to think they are most likely to flip from last time against the tide elsewhere is Minnesota because it has been drifting right for many election cycles as the farmer with Scandinavian ancestry demographic's penchant for socialism fades away and the state becomes more like its neighbours in flyover terms. Edited November 3, 2020 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Paddy Power's odds are really shite, the others aren't any better from what I've seen. 8/1 for Biden to win exactly 375 Electoral College votes ffs. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aladdin Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 No bookies offering odds on a second American civil war unfortunately.Could see Trumps militia supporters being a nuisance irrespective of the margin of defeat or, if Trump attempted to halt vote counting early as he has threatened to do, that could really see it kick off (and rightly so). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 351-187 Biden. Trump holds Iowa, Texas, Ohio and the 3rd district of Nebraska but Biden wins all the other swing states. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just put my biggest bet ever on Biden to win at 1.66. Probably jinxed it for him now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 This is a massive election for the UK. A Biden win will blow up the Brexit battle bus big time and really cast this country into a trade wilderness, whilst if Trump holds on a dystopian shitshow awaits us. I look forward to David Cameron's take on it all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Aladdin said: No bookies offering odds on a second American civil war unfortunately. Could see Trumps militia supporters being a nuisance irrespective of the margin of defeat or, if Trump attempted to halt vote counting early as he has threatened to do, that could really see it kick off (and rightly so). As many have said it is likely Florida will have a definitive result early on. If Florida goes to Biden it will be clear that Trump has lost, I think that will be enough for the various Federal law enforcement agencies to act against any nut jobs if required. Not sure State or local law enforcement will be as keen. Not sure what the margin is to necessitate a recount and if it’s uniform across all states. Edited November 3, 2020 by Granny Danger 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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