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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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Just now, Granny Danger said:

As many have said it is likely Florida will have a definitive result early on.  If Florida goes to Biden it will be clear that Trump has lost, I think that will be enough for the various Federal law enforcement areas to act against any nut jobs if required.

Not sure State or local law enforcement will be as keen.

Not sure what the margin is to necessitate a recount and if it’s uniform across all states.

 

The florida police chiefs association backed trump so I expect there may be some kind of dirty tricks. 

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2 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

This is a massive election for the UK. A Biden win will blow up the Brexit battle bus big time and really cast this country into a trade wilderness, ...

...or it nudges Boris towards dropping some empty posturing and being slightly more sensible and ultimately really doesn't matter that much because he was probably going to do that anyway. Think people who view US elections through the prism of whether a particular presidential candidate is a Billy or a Dan or an old tin can out themselves as being constitutionally obsessed nutters. US foreign policy of being broadly sympathetic to Irish nationalism but also being OK with the principle of consent where UI is concerned has been a constant for many decades and is unlikely to shift very much.

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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I prevaricated on Biden at 5/6 a few weeks back and now I regret that. I've been watching the odds today, they lengthened a little on Biden but have slid back so in the end I took a measly 1/2 with Hills. I've been trying to bait Trumpists into betting with me here and on social media, but unsurprisingly they all shit out of it.

I don't know why anyone's betting on Trump, you might think he can win but the value is awful for someone polling in his position.

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In Pennsylvania 1,641,825 registered Democrats and 586,336 registered Republicans requested mail-in ballots. 84.3% of Democrat ballots have been returned and only 74.4% of Republican ballots have been returned. That alone would be enough to flip the 2016 result so even though the mail-in ballots can be handed in at polling stations, the Republicans really have their work cut out today.

Full data for every state here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html 

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2 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Early exit polls around 10 pm our time for the east coast states 

538 warning against reading much into exit polls this year. Apparently they're not like UK exit polls, they're designed to understand the demographics of voters to explain the election after it happened, rather than work out who's going to win. https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/be-wary-of-exit-polls-this-year-well-and-all-years/ 

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538 warning against reading much into exit polls this year. Apparently they're not like UK exit polls, they're designed to understand the demographics of voters to explain the election after it happened, rather than work out who's going to win. https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/be-wary-of-exit-polls-this-year-well-and-all-years/ 

538 put out an article on likely times states will be called (assuming exit polls, counts etc allow the networks to do so) . A few early ones to watch out for: 7.00pm ET (midnight GMT) - Georgia

 

7.30pm ET (12.30am GMT) - North Carolina, Ohio

 

8,00pm ET (1.00am GMT) - New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida

 

9.00pm ET (2.00am GMT) - Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Texas

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-candidates-might-fall-short-of-270-electoral-votes-on-election-night-but-how-close-might-they-get/

 

 

If they declare early on Florida it could be over a lot earlier than some were thinking.

 

Same with Pennsylvania, Georgia and NC.

 

Might stay up to 2.00am - I don't think it will be Texas but that it could be calls for Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Arizona that put the final nails in Trump's coffin.

 

 

 

 

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Interesting that Asian American voting patterns are similar to Hispanic in that their family country of origin is said to play a big role in how they vote, ie Cuban and Venezuelan emigres are more likely to vote Trump than Mexicans. Not surprising to those who remember the "Boat People" that Vietnamese strongly favour the Republican Party.

 Screen-Shot-2020-09-17-at-6.52.56-PM.png

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1 minute ago, willis said:

Early indications are that Reps are set for a very comfortable win in Florida.

I'm still asking if you're a bot. Humans post explanations for things they say, bots just make declarations. 

Anyway it's not true, things are looking bad from Trump in Sumter County, among others. It's too early to draw any sorts of conclusion either way, of course, but it's screamingly obvious to anyone who isn't an idiot that it's not looking "comfortable" for either party.

Why are you wasting your time posting pish here? It's not like you're going to affect a single vote.

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