Savage Henry Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said: A note of caution from Michael Moore: https://www.dailywire.com/news/michael-moore-bidens-poll-lead-is-not-an-accurate-count Listen, don’t believe these polls, first of all,” Moore said. “And second of all, the Trump vote is always being undercounted. Pollsters, when they actually call a real Trump voter, the Trump voter is very suspicious of the Deep State calling them and asking them who they’re voting for.” I'm in wait and see mode on this because I'm not totally sure the mainstream pollsters can be trusted to not get into a cycle of group think on questionable polling numbers that fit the desired outcome of the American elite when the raw numbers they obtain before they get into applying weightings to try to more accurately gauge shy Trump "deplorables" will be in line with what the people that are commissioning the polls very much want to hear and report through the mass media. We'll find out soon enough. Even allowing for that factor a 10% national lead should translate to a Biden win but it's in no way surprising that Michael Moore would be reaching for the panic button again. There’s no such thing as a shy Trumper. The whole point of voting Trump is a symbolic strike against the man.... even if he’s far more of an establishment figure than Biden. It’s all about being seen. It’s his only appeal. As you say, Moore is a polemicist. Some of his podcasts are borderline hysteria. There’s no reason to doubt most of the pollsters. They were largely spot on in 2016, and their record has been pretty solid in recent years. Obviously there are outliers, but polling numbers are snapshots of intent, and not predictions of outcome. It’s dodgy analysis that creates the disconnect. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aladdin Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 There’s no such thing as a shy Trumper.This. I'm pretty reliant on 538 and they have repeatedly said that there isn't much of a shy Trump voter phenomenon. Trump voters are pretty happy to loudly declare who they support.The issue in 2016 was the white non college educated voters who weren't spoken to by pollsters and weren't weighted appropriately as supporting Trump. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 (edited) In terms of polling, 2016 was a miss by the polls but not a huge one. The final average was Clinton on 45.7% and Trump on 41.8%. That is a 3.9% lead. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/ The final result was 48.2% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump a lead of 2%. The polls missed by about 2%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election Anyone who watches elections would know that is a good number. The shock of the win and the post election "narrative" tends to colour peoples memories into it being some kind of huge miss and masses of white, no college educated voters being missed. A more nuanced story is that Clinton was a very unpopular candidate with rarely polled above 45%. There was a very significant number of undecideds and 3rd party voters in the run up to the election. Two weeks before the vote, FBI director James Comey announced he was investigating her campaign (I have not reread the details so feel free to correct errors I have made here. ) This may have pushed undecideds into Trumps corner. The post election analysis, pollsters did identify a problem with no college education whites, it was down to how they reached out to the population then accounted for things like how many people did not answer phones or did not have land lines. This was corrected but it entered public memory as being a much bigger problem. The polling for the 2018 election cycle was generally pretty good. This contained updates from pollsters. Why people think this is different, Biden has mostly been above 50%, he is currently averaging 52%. There are a lot less undecideds and 3rd party candidates and even if all of them went over to Trump Biden would still win the popular vote. He has also polled well among groups that tend to have high turn outs compared to Clinton. But the reasons to worry (if you support Biden): Pennsylvania has not polled as well as other key midwest states. Some point to his stance on fracking in a state where it is a major industry. Pennsylvania at 5% lead puts him a reasonable polling error away from losing that state. Broadly speaking 5% polling errors occur about 1 in 5 presidential elections, there is a 50 50 chance of the error being in Trumps favour so roughly Trump has a 1 in 10 chance of the polling being out in his favour enough to win the key state in the electoral collage race. He is losing Hispanics and blacks. But this is likely more that those who voted Republican in the past have been less alienated by Trump this cycle. The turn out is high. This is a source of uncertainty. When you conduct a poll, you have to account for the differences between who you manage to contact and the make up of the wider population, this was the first polling error, not getting enough non college whites. But you also have to model for who will actually vote, who will turn out. With a high turnout you have people who do not usually vote voting. This may be people who are disengaged from politics and perhaps not as anti Trump as the general electorate. It works the other way, it may be people who are anti Trump. But this is the uncertainty. I will post todays over view on where the electoral college votes are. Ohio and Georgia are at nearly 50 50 split. Texas leans R, but they have tended to out perform their polling there over the past few years. I said a week ago so sorry to be repetitive but every state they need up to 270 has a Democrat governor showing they have the ability to win that state and Biden is polling above 50% in those states. Their are not enough undecideds at state level to flip it for Trump. It has to be a polling error or turnout if its wrong. There are risks the polling is wrong. But this really is not 2016. Be cautious what what you read online. People here, on twitter and across the blogs are getting excited and generating more chat and guesses than information. If you are following on the night, this is a rundown of what to expect from each state. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/ Georgia was mentioned earlier: Quote Timing of results Should be relatively quick. Counties were allowed to start processing absentee ballots on Oct. 19, and only ballots mailed from overseas may arrive after Nov. 3. “For races that aren’t too close, we’ll have those results” on election night, the secretary of state told WSB-TV. “For the races that are very, very close, we believe that we’ll have them by Wednesday or Thursday at the latest.” Shift in results Hard to say. Each county treats absentee votes differently, and with (Democratic-leaning) absentee votes being reported at different times throughout the state, it’s possible we’ll see some miniature red and blue shifts on the county level, which may cancel each other out statewide. Apologies to people who are not political nerds for a wall of text. Edited November 2, 2020 by dorlomin 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 2 hours ago, Bob Mahelp said: I doubt if it'll be as high as that, but there are a certain amount of coloured/latino voters who are very, very big on the law and order ticket, and because of that are natural Republican voters. Not all coloured/latino/Hispanic voters in the States are radicals calling for social justice. A significant number are extremely conservative and as such are attracted to Trump's rhetoric. Polling by reputable pollsters has Trump getting about 10% of black voters, pretty much the same as in 2016 (I know, I know). I've noticed that the shadier pollsters all have suspiciously high shares of black voters for Trump. 2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said: A note of caution from Michael Moore: https://www.dailywire.com/news/michael-moore-bidens-poll-lead-is-not-an-accurate-count Listen, don’t believe these polls, first of all,” Moore said. “And second of all, the Trump vote is always being undercounted. Pollsters, when they actually call a real Trump voter, the Trump voter is very suspicious of the Deep State calling them and asking them who they’re voting for.” I'm in wait and see mode on this because I'm not totally sure the mainstream pollsters can be trusted to not get into a cycle of group think on questionable polling numbers that fit the desired outcome of the American elite when the raw numbers they obtain before they get into applying weightings to try to more accurately gauge shy Trump "deplorables" will be in line with what the people that are commissioning the polls very much want to hear and report through the mass media. We'll find out soon enough. Even allowing for that factor a 10% national lead should translate to a Biden win but it's in no way surprising that Michael Moore would be reaching for the panic button again. I don't think there's a reason to believe that. It didn't happen in the midterms in 2018. There's no real difference between live caller, robo-caller and online polls - I'd expect to see a bit less fibbing on online polls. It's certainly the case that Trump voters are harder to get to answer polls in many because of their demographics, which the polling companies all know - older, less digitally connected, less likely to answer the phone, etc. You can knock a couple of points off Biden's lead for that but I don't see how it could come to much more. You never know, though. 2 hours ago, Gaz said: It's essentially their version of Shy Tory Syndrome. That doesn't seem to exist - the Tories got what they were polling in 2019 (in Scotland they got less) and in 2017 too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 https://www.politico.eu/article/not-a-single-uk-constituency-would-vote-for-donald-trump-poll/Banff and Buchan the most pro Trump constituency in Scotland. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Supposedly the Hispanic vote works in an opposite way to the white vote, working class sway to Biden, professionals to Trump. There's a big overall majority for the Dems though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, ICTChris said: https://www.politico.eu/article/not-a-single-uk-constituency-would-vote-for-donald-trump-poll/ Banff and Buchan the most pro Trump constituency in Scotland. Even there it's 72% to Biden. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, dorlomin said: They did this the last time. A conspicuous placement of “Blacks for Trump” at his rallies turned out to be a GOP funded creation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonsism Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Trying to get a little more bang for my buck on a bet that results in a Trump presidency. Looking at electoral college votes. 270-299 is 6/1 on Paddy Power which looks good to me since Trump won 304 in 2016 and will surely drop some this year even if he somehow wins. That being said I’ve got no idea what happens / how frequent it is that both candidates miss 270. If Trump is to win this is 270-299 likely? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 13 hours ago, GordonS said: Oh, as for that "so-and-so was right in 2016" thing; yeah, and Paul the Octopus was right 85.7% of the time in the 2010 World Cup. The real question is how they got it right. Won't hear any slander against Paul or indeed any octopus. Majestic Lovecraftian boys. 3 hours ago, madwullie said: How would the sealed indictments that are being opened any day now, wait for it, wait for it, narrative survive a trump loss? He's had 4 years to do all the stuff that's been predicted and he hasn't even managed to make any kind of decent start on the wall, let alone expose the clones of Hanks, Obama etc and lock them all up That reminds me that I haven't listened to Q-Anon Anonymous (good podcast for documenting the insane conspiracy) in a while. Last I checked in was early October and they were saying the latest Q expectation was that the still alive Kennedy (not the loser milk boy) was going to replace Mike Pence who's apparently one of the sickos according to Q heads. 1 hour ago, Savage Henry said: There’s no such thing as a shy Trumper. The whole point of voting Trump is a symbolic strike against the man.... even if he’s far more of an establishment figure than Biden. It’s all about being seen. It’s his only appeal. As you say, Moore is a polemicist. Some of his podcasts are borderline hysteria. There’s no reason to doubt most of the pollsters. They were largely spot on in 2016, and their record has been pretty solid in recent years. Obviously there are outliers, but polling numbers are snapshots of intent, and not predictions of outcome. It’s dodgy analysis that creates the disconnect. I think there was in 2016 but aye the Trump vote is loud and proud now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 34 minutes ago, sonsism said: Trying to get a little more bang for my buck on a bet that results in a Trump presidency. Looking at electoral college votes. 270-299 is 6/1 on Paddy Power which looks good to me since Trump won 304 in 2016 and will surely drop some this year even if he somehow wins. That being said I’ve got no idea what happens / how frequent it is that both candidates miss 270. If Trump is to win this is 270-299 likely? He is given about 10-1 based on how far out his polling is very historic size of polling misses. That would be a super tight squeeze over the line for him at around 270-280 EC votes. Above that odds sky rocket (8% miss in polling is really rare with this volume of data). Many have noted that Trump is given a much higher chance by bettors than by statics would indicate. (He needs a 5% miss in the polls, that happens about 1 in 5 times but that is both ways so about 1 in 10 for a 5% miss in his direction) Theory is lots of non regular political bettors are piling in and thinking they have an insight the polls do not. A funsies bet, ok. Just dont put anything you would miss. Its likely poor odds for the return. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 Someone’s confident 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aladdin Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 I took Paddy Power's 5/4 on the Democrats winning the presidency, Senate and house.Only put on the £38 I had in the account though rather than splash out a mil. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonsism Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, dorlomin said: He is given about 10-1 based on how far out his polling is very historic size of polling misses. That would be a super tight squeeze over the line for him at around 270-280 EC votes. Above that odds sky rocket (8% miss in polling is really rare with this volume of data). Many have noted that Trump is given a much higher chance by bettors than by statics would indicate. (He needs a 5% miss in the polls, that happens about 1 in 5 times but that is both ways so about 1 in 10 for a 5% miss in his direction) Theory is lots of non regular political bettors are piling in and thinking they have an insight the polls do not. A funsies bet, ok. Just dont put anything you would miss. Its likely poor odds for the return. Definitely not as much as that guy has put on Biden that’s for sure! It’s more of an “insurance policy” that if I wake up to the results and the worst has happened my wallet might be a little heavier. Tenner or something. After your input I might split it and do one for Trump scraping it and one for Biden smashing it 300+ EC votes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paco Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 It’s in the bag, lads. Don’t panic. 365-173 was the 2008 result for Obama. It’ll be much closer to that than a Trump victory. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 24 minutes ago, ICTChris said: Someone’s confident Trump imo 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, madwullie said: Trump imo Do Betfair take tick? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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