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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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2 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

 

Trump needs 57%  to win in Maricopa and got it. But he needs to keep getting this. This does mean AZ will not be callable until the vote count is near done. 

I would assume so, what's their completion %?

 

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4 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:
6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:
According to Alex.Github for Arizona (not sure how solid his numbers are)
Trump is averaging 55.2%    Trump needs 57.26%
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

He's going to be a few thousand short they think.

Can he not mail them in?

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I have been told there are about 30k ballots left in Maricopa after this drop and 20k of provisionals in Pima. Plus odds and ends. I do not have a firm, quotable source on those numbers so its taken with pinches of salt. 

But the alex.github.io gives the total at 131792 remaining. I will hunt down a better source. Seems we will need Pennsylvania to call this thing today. 

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19 minutes ago, RiG said:

Trump taking a well earned break from, erm, tweeting and hitting the golf course.

His counting on the golf course is similar to his claims about his votes , it doesn't quite add up to what it should 

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Quote

NATE SILVER
NOV. 7, 11:13 AM
Looks like Trump won the new batch of ballots from Maricopa County by 15.6 points — 56.4 percent to 40.8 percent — which is not bad but slightly less than the pace he needed. This makes his path back harder in Arizona, though I wouldn’t say insurmountable.

Silver seems to be using the same numbers as the github.io so id go with that. Depends on where they are coming from and what type of ballots they are.

Local data bod fills in the details (no point me retyping this to pretend its my analysis lol)

 

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