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Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021


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There's not really been anything for the SNP to worry at this stage. 

9 minutes ago, Pato said:

Would Eastwood go back to Labour if tories are worried about it?

You would have thought more likely if Ken Macintosh was still there. Saying that it was a particularly anti-brexit seat and kicked Tory Paul Masterton out of the similar UK seat. There is a chance Labour could nick it I guess. 

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50/50 chance of a majority, same as I thought before the counting started.

 

Not seen anything to make me think my original analysis was wrong. They'll either be 1-2 seats short or 1-2 seats over the line. It's on a knife edge.

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7 minutes ago, Andre Drazen said:

Aye. I'm trying to figure out the reasons for people suddenly shitting themselves, because I'm not really seeing it.

They aren't the number of SNP votes is up. That means the other parties have a bigger job even if their vote share increases. It still looks good for the SNP. The constituency vote is looking like a proxy referendum result so the interesting number is the total % for the SNP plus 30-40% of the Labour vote.

Edited by Saltire
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Aye. I'm trying to figure out the reasons for people suddenly shitting themselves, because I'm not really seeing it.
Because Labour vote up in Central belt. More likely effect the Tory vote in marginals. Labour won't win any extra constituency seats.
Majority beckons imo
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It's four seats folks. Two of which are much smaller than the average in terms of population. We won't get an accurate reading of what's happening until quite a few more seats come through, particularly seats that are realistically in play.

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Just now, John Lambies Doos said:

Because Labour vote up in Central belt. More likely effect the Tory vote in marginals. Labour won't win any extra constituency seats.
Majority beckons imo

Agreed. I think there is less motivation in the Central Belt for voting for the Tories and Anas Sarwar has been reasonably popular. I think urban Tory constituency seats are in play for the SNP.

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Some narrative on the beeb just now. SNP is full of tension and fragmented. 

And cigaring to 60odd seats before the 'green wing and alba wing' come into play. 

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Quote
  • There's been an incident in Glasgow where the SNP's Humza Yousaf was accosted by two members of the Liberal Party, one of the smaller parties, questioning him about the treatment of women in Pakistan and making military salutes as they were escorted away

f**k sake.

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