Billy Jean King Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 2 hours ago, DiscoStu said: This will be replied to in due course. In the meantime, yet more SNP misery as the exodus continues to gather steam. Firstly, following some soul searching, John McNally decides to chuck it for not stand in the GE. A good move considering he'll more than likely be outvoted. SNP exodus continues as seventh MP announces they are standing down at next election - Daily Record Then we have Angus MacNeil, literally "taking back control" by retaking the whip. No longer will he be controlled by those who are doing zero for independence, says Angus. I suppose the only question left is.. You are utterly obsessed by the SNP. They clearly are in your thoughts 24/7. All consuming, best you seek some professional help with such obsessive behaviour. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lichtgilphead Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 3 hours ago, DiscoStu said: This will be replied to in due course. I'm quaking in my boots. Why the delay, though? Is matron restricting your time with the computer? 3 hours ago, DiscoStu said: In the meantime, yet more SNP misery as the exodus continues to gather steam. Firstly, following some soul searching, John McNally decides to chuck it for not stand in the GE. A good move considering he'll more than likely be outvoted. Or, in other words, a 72 year old man decides to retire! Mcnally would be nearly 80 by the time that the subsequent scheduled election rolled around if he stood for election in the forthcoming GE. And yeah, given that his current majority is more than the second place candidate's total vote last time, I'm sure that he is certain that he is going to lose. Let's just have a quick look at electoral calculus... https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?postcode=FK1+1aa Your postcode FK1 1AA lookup Postcode FK1 1AA District Falkirk Ward Falkirk South Current Constituency Falkirk Proposed Constituency Falkirk County Central MP at 2019 Johnny McNally Party Scottish National Predicted Winner Scottish National Falkirk: Overview PREDICTION: SNP HOLD MP at 2019: Johnny McNally (SNP) County/Area: Central (Scotland) Electorate: 84,472 Turnout: 66.1% The postcode (FK1 1AA) is in the proposed new 2023 constituency of Falkirk. Click 'Proposed Constituency' link in table for full details. You can search for another postcode: Go Party 2019 Votes 2019 Share Pred Votes SNP 29,351 52.5% 43.9% CON 14,403 25.8% 19.2% LAB 6,243 11.2% 23.8% LIB 3,990 7.1% 5.4% Green 1,885 3.4% 3.6% OTH 0 0.0% 4.1% SNP Majority 14,948 26.8% 20.1% Pred Maj Chance of winning SNP 87% CON 3% LAB 10% LIB 0% Green 0% OTH 0% Well, that looks pretty conclusive. The SNP have no chance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Must admit, despite the Carry On levels of SNP organisation we've been exposed to lately, this nationalist collapse has been a bit of a damp squib so far. Even the Abla lads must be a bit disappointed. Hopefully CON/LAB/LIB continue with their inspiring strategy of "they're finished now, the morons will have no choice but to vote for us!" rather than presenting anything worth voting for themselves. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiscoStu Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 More bad news for Arthur Donaldson's boot bhoys as Angus MacNeil has his party membership terminated. SNP MP Angus MacNeil has party membership suspended - BBC News Given he has declared he'll be standing as an independent, this is sure to split the separation movement up in the Western Isles. Can't see any way back for him in the SNP now. He seems to have chosen his words with regards to joining Alba carefully, saying he has no plans to join them but not ruling it out. It would make sense for him to have a party machine behind him, but only time will tell. It wouldn't surprise me if him, Cherry and some of the other more normal SNP politicians are waiting 'til the time is right before they make the switch. The Western Isles has long been a safe seat for the SNP, but I can see that changing pretty soon, especially when you consider that the combined Unionist vote always dwarfs that of the Nats. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiscoStu Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 On 14/07/2023 at 14:29, lichtgilphead said: I'm quaking in my boots. Why the delay, though? Is matron restricting your time with the computer? Or, in other words, a 72 year old man decides to retire! Mcnally would be nearly 80 by the time that the subsequent scheduled election rolled around if he stood for election in the forthcoming GE. And yeah, given that his current majority is more than the second place candidate's total vote last time, I'm sure that he is certain that he is going to lose. Let's just have a quick look at electoral calculus... https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?postcode=FK1+1aa Your postcode FK1 1AA lookup Postcode FK1 1AA District Falkirk Ward Falkirk South Current Constituency Falkirk Proposed Constituency Falkirk County Central MP at 2019 Johnny McNally Party Scottish National Predicted Winner Scottish National Falkirk: Overview PREDICTION: SNP HOLD MP at 2019: Johnny McNally (SNP) County/Area: Central (Scotland) Electorate: 84,472 Turnout: 66.1% The postcode (FK1 1AA) is in the proposed new 2023 constituency of Falkirk. Click 'Proposed Constituency' link in table for full details. You can search for another postcode: Go Party 2019 Votes 2019 Share Pred Votes SNP 29,351 52.5% 43.9% CON 14,403 25.8% 19.2% LAB 6,243 11.2% 23.8% LIB 3,990 7.1% 5.4% Green 1,885 3.4% 3.6% OTH 0 0.0% 4.1% SNP Majority 14,948 26.8% 20.1% Pred Maj Chance of winning SNP 87% CON 3% LAB 10% LIB 0% Green 0% OTH 0% Well, that looks pretty conclusive. The SNP have no chance. I'm not saying they have no chance, but as their support continues to plummet then it's looking more and more like "advantage Labour!" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StellarHibee Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 minute ago, DiscoStu said: I'm not saying they have no chance, but as their support continues to plummet then it's looking more and more like "advantage Labour!" What advantage? There is no Labour Party to take advantage. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lichtgilphead Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 7 hours ago, DiscoStu said: Arthur Donaldson's boot bhoys Grow up. 7 hours ago, DiscoStu said: The Western Isles has long been a safe seat for the SNP, but I can see that changing pretty soon, especially when you consider that the combined Unionist vote always dwarfs that of the Nats. Except for both elections in 1974, plus the elections of 1979, 1983 and 2015, of course, when the SNP took over 50% of the total vote on each occasion. On one memorable occasion, the SNP's toral vote (10,079) was more than twice the combined Yoon vote (4,952) 8 hours ago, DiscoStu said: I'm not saying they have no chance, but as their support continues to plummet then it's looking more and more like "advantage Labour!" So far, you've only mentioned one seat in Scotland where Labour are considered the slight favourite to win at the next election (Na h-Eileanan An Iar), and even there, you appear to be hoping that they sneak in due to a split in the pro-indy vote.. However, it appears that overtaking the Tories to become Scotland's second most popular party is the limit of Labour's ambition. They are an absolute joke of a branch office. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiscoStu Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 16 hours ago, lichtgilphead said: Grow up. Except for both elections in 1974, plus the elections of 1979, 1983 and 2015, of course, when the SNP took over 50% of the total vote on each occasion. On one memorable occasion, the SNP's toral vote (10,079) was more than twice the combined Yoon vote (4,952) So far, you've only mentioned one seat in Scotland where Labour are considered the slight favourite to win at the next election (Na h-Eileanan An Iar), and even there, you appear to be hoping that they sneak in due to a split in the pro-indy vote.. However, it appears that overtaking the Tories to become Scotland's second most popular party is the limit of Labour's ambition. They are an absolute joke of a branch office. Are you seriously suggesting Labour won't take seats off the SNP? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 On 15/07/2023 at 14:38, DiscoStu said: Arthur Donaldson's boot bhoys The sun never set on the British barbarism. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lichtgilphead Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 1 minute ago, DiscoStu said: Are you seriously suggesting Labour won't take seats off the SNP? Where do I say that? Do you have comprehension problems? Recently, you have mentioned 3 specific MP's who are leaving Westminster, suggesting that it is due to fear of being defeated (Black, Hosie & McNally). All of their seats are in constituencies where the SNP are still expected to win,. You have also mentioned Na h-Eileanan An Iar., where Labour are currently the current slight favourites. Accordingly, I would not be surprised if Labour took that seat due to a combination of them taking votes from their Yoon friends & partners, and the SNP vote staying at home or (potentially) a second pro-Indy candidate splitting the vote. Considering that the SNP have been the largest party (by seats) at Holyrood for the last 4 elections, and at Westminster for the last 3, it would be unsurprising if they lost some seats here or there at the next Westminster election. What is surprising is that they still currently look like winning more Westminster seats than Labour & the Tories combined. In addition, whilst SNP support may be slightly reduced at the moment, it is worth keeping an eye on the bigger picture - the slight dip in electoral support for the SNP does not seem to be affecting support for Independence. Remember, if Labour do increase their vote, at least 30% of these voters are likely to vote "Yes" in Indyref2. So, how about you post some actual factual analysis instead of puerile references to the SNP being catholic nazi boot-boys? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 (edited) 58 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said: So, how about you post some actual factual analysis instead of puerile references to the SNP being catholic nazi boot-boys? I think the "bh" thing, which is gaelic, typically means Irish rather than Catholic. I assumed he was referencing the minor collaboration between the IRA and the Nazis (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Republican_Army–Abwehr_collaboration). His forum sites, followfollow and the like, have thread after thread on that one. There's a few things to consider in response. UK - Nazi collaboration was far greater, taking the form of an official treaty (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-German_Naval_Agreement). It, like the overall strategy of appeasement, was about trying to get the Nazis to turn their fire on the Soviets, who the ruling UK conservatives viewed as their priority threat at the time. Probably more important, though, is to recognise that both world wars were wars between the empires. For the colonised nations such as Ireland, liberation from their imperial oppressors was the only goal. The greater the oppression the greater the need for liberation was felt and nowhere more so than east India. Subhas Chandra Bose took a legion of Bengali soldiers to Germany to fight alongside the Nazis in a bid to overthrow their longtime British oppressors. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subhas_Chandra_Bose) As if to underline Bose's point, Churchill oversaw the starvation of at least 3M east Indians in the Bengal Famine of 1943. The imperial British were so fucking bad that some of its victims were so desperate for liberation they sided with the Nazis. That's the relevant point, for me. Edited July 16, 2023 by FreedomFarter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lichtgilphead Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 27 minutes ago, FreedomFarter said: I think the "bh" thing, which is gaelic, typically means Irish rather than Catholic. I assumed he was referencing the minor collaboration between the IRA and the Nazis (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Republican_Army–Abwehr_collaboration). His forum sites, followfollow and the like, have thread after thread on that one. There's a few things to consider in response. UK - Nazi collaboration was far greater, taking the form of an official treaty (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-German_Naval_Agreement). It, like the overall strategy of appeasement, was about trying to get the Nazis to turn their fire on the Soviets, who the ruling UK conservatives viewed as their priority threat at the time. Probably more important, though, is to recognise that both world wars were wars between the empires. For the colonised nations such as Ireland, liberation from their imperial oppressors was the only goal. The greater the oppression the greater the need for liberation was felt and nowhere more so than east India. Subhas Chandra Bose took a legion of Bengali soldiers to Germany to fight alongside the Nazis in a bid to overthrow their longtime British oppressors. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subhas_Chandra_Bose) As if to underline Bose's point, Churchill oversaw the starvation of at least 3M east Indians in the Bengal Famine of 1943. The imperial British were so fucking bad that some of its victims were so desperate for liberation they sided with the Nazis. That's the relevant point, for me. I doubt that @DiscoStu actually thought that deeply about it. I suspect that he just intended it as a wee bit of abuse. He might even have found it either amusing or deliberately provocative. In any case it was totally unneccesary. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 On 14/07/2023 at 12:16, DiscoStu said: Then we have Angus MacNeil, literally "taking back control" by retaking the whip. No longer will he be controlled by those who are doing zero for independence, says Angus. Don't really know anything about the guy. I do think his viewpoint will resonate with many independence supporters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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