WORLD CUP PLAY-OFFS: the Scottish balls-up scenario. It couldn't happen, could it?!

[nate]

Let's all descend into a pit of pessimism for a moment and imagine what unlikely sequence of events could deny us a play-off berth. Some good old Scottish doom and gloom. You know you love it. Here's the thing....I fully expect Israel to finish the group on 19 points. They're playing a demotivated Austria (already qualified for the play offs through the back door and consequently very unlikely to be busting a proverbial gut for this one) and then they finish the group with an easy home fixture against the Faroes(nice goal difference booster this one for the Israelis). I'd go further and say an Israel win in Vienna represents one of the best value Fixed Odds bets of the year. They've already taken five off Austria at home and have by far the best scoring record in the group, Denmark aside. They will also be fully aware that Scotland seldom, if ever, get through a qualifying campaign without dropping crucial points to one of the so-called minnows (Kazakhstan ,Belarus, Moldova, Macedonia, Faroes, Lithuania etc etc). Yep, Israel to win in Austria. Put your shirt on it.

Scotland, currently on 17 points, therefore need 3 more points from our two remaining fixtures to get that coveted play-off spot (2 points aint enough...the Israelis would pip us on goal difference). Here's the nightmare scenario...we scrape a draw in Moldova (a scrappy, nervy Torshavn type affair on a crappy pitch, our talismanic striker suspended, replacements not up to the task), and then confront Denmark needing ALL 3 points! It wont happen. We are NOT beating Denmark. It's Moldova or bust. Anyone who has followed Scotland over the decades knows that this Moldova match is precisely the kind of affair we traditionally f**k up. I can then see us drawing against Denmark at Hampden (a Braveheart performance, Hampden roar, we gave our all etc) but conceding an 89th minute equaliser and missing out on the play offs on goal difference. How Scottish would that be?

Am i the most pessimistic fan in the country or does this sequence of events sound even remotely plausible? 

Must go, have some wrists to slash...

[BFTD]

Steve Clarke has a touch of witchcraft about him. Even if we're utter shite in Moldova, I fancy us to conjure up a winner from somewhere. If we can get anything at all from Denmark, I'll be starting a new pagan sect in his honour.

I'd agree with your assumption about an simple Israel win against a demotivated Austria if they hadn't just put five past them. If that humiliation isn't enough motivation to get Austria to put in a shift, they'll be a walkover in the play-offs anyway. Plus, third place isn't completely out of the question yet, and fourth would be an atrocious finish from a reasonably straightforward group. They might not win, but they've plenty of reason to throw themselves into it.

[Richey Edwards]

Where does the assumption that we cannot beat Denmark come from?

I know they are a good team, but a beatable one at that.

[PB1994]

40 minutes ago, Richey Edwards said:

Where does the assumption that we cannot beat Denmark come from?

I know they are a good team, but a beatable one at that.

Also, if Israel are playing a demotivated Austria because they are already in the playoffs surely Denmark are also demotivated as they have already qualified for the World Cup.

[KingRocketman II]

1 hour ago, Richey Edwards said:

Where does the assumption that we cannot beat Denmark come from?

I know they are a good team, but a beatable one at that.

probably largely based on the last time we played them and we hardly got a sniff of the ball 

[BFTD]

1 hour ago, Richey Edwards said:

Where does the assumption that we cannot beat Denmark come from?

I know they are a good team, but a beatable one at that.

They're a lot better than us, as a team and individually, and are on a fine run of form. They've been scoring freely in these qualifiers and are yet to concede a goal. We played them recently and it was men against boys.

Of course we can beat them; it's possible to beat anyone, which is why we love the game. The Faeroes just came within five minutes of holding them to a goalless draw, after all. But it'll take a top-quality performance from us and/or an uncharacteristic screaming shitemare from them for it to happen. So I'm still saying Steve Clarke has the ear of the dark side if he manages to pull it off!

[Ken Deans]

This sort of pessimism comes from years of experience. Georgia twice. Lithuania etc. Very possible to make a mess of it this time as well BUT we have a better squad than on those occasions and tbf Moldova are pants. Think Austria had the cigars out after qualifying through the Nation's League so Israel winning there is well possible. A better show than the nerve shredded 90 in the North Atlantic will be needed. Then Denmark is a free hit. Chin up

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

The whole “x happened before, so y will happen this time” never really plays out does it.  We beat The Faroes 4-0 at home, and struggled to a win away.  Why are the Israelis so much more nailed on?

Exactly the same logic would apply to our games in the past - Georgia, Slovenia, Belarus, Poland…. Either games where we’d won the first leg, were higher ranked, or ‘more up for it’.

There’s rarely a perfect counter, but in the last ECQ, Israel beat Austria 4-2 at home, and then lost 3-1 away.

Israel have scored well in qualifying, but they’ve also conceded only two fewer than the Faroes.  

Of course, it’s entirely possible for them to beat Austria, but it’s so far from a dead cert.

 

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

Here’s another fun stat.  Of all the 6-team groups, only Faroes, Moldova, Gibraltar, San Marino, Andorra, Malta, and Liechtenstein have conceded more than Israel.

[BFTD]

1 hour ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said:

Here’s another fun stat.  Of all the 6-team groups, only Faroes, Moldova, Gibraltar, San Marino, Andorra, Malta, and Liechtenstein have conceded more than Israel.

They certainly haven't looked too clever at the back against us. Only problem was...

[Caledonian1]

19 hours ago, nate said:

Let's all descend into a pit of pessimism for a moment and imagine what unlikely sequence of events could deny us a play-off berth. Some good old Scottish doom and gloom. You know you love it. Here's the thing....I fully expect Israel to finish the group on 19 points. They're playing a demotivated Austria (already qualified for the play offs through the back door and consequently very unlikely to be busting a proverbial gut for this one) and then they finish the group with an easy home fixture against the Faroes(nice goal difference booster this one for the Israelis). I'd go further and say an Israel win in Vienna represents one of the best value Fixed Odds bets of the year. They've already taken five off Austria at home and have by far the best scoring record in the group, Denmark aside. They will also be fully aware that Scotland seldom, if ever, get through a qualifying campaign without dropping crucial points to one of the so-called minnows (Kazakhstan ,Belarus, Moldova, Macedonia, Faroes, Lithuania etc etc). Yep, Israel to win in Austria. Put your shirt on it.

Scotland, currently on 17 points, therefore need 3 more points from our two remaining fixtures to get that coveted play-off spot (2 points aint enough...the Israelis would pip us on goal difference). Here's the nightmare scenario...we scrape a draw in Moldova (a scrappy, nervy Torshavn type affair on a crappy pitch, our talismanic striker suspended, replacements not up to the task), and then confront Denmark needing ALL 3 points! It wont happen. We are NOT beating Denmark. It's Moldova or bust. Anyone who has followed Scotland over the decades knows that this Moldova match is precisely the kind of affair we traditionally f**k up. I can then see us drawing against Denmark at Hampden (a Braveheart performance, Hampden roar, we gave our all etc) but conceding an 89th minute equaliser and missing out on the play offs on goal difference. How Scottish would that be?

Am i the most pessimistic fan in the country or does this sequence of events sound even remotely plausible? 

Must go, have some wrists to slash...

When are you looking to place that bet?

Perhaps best to wait for the Scotland result as this game will mean absolutely nothing for Israel should Scotland get the win that guarantees second (we kick off at 5pm whilst Austria dont kick off 'til 7.45pm)

[nate]

Folks, an indication of Austria's appetite for their match against Israel is that they have moved the fixture from big bad Vienna - the imposing Ernst Happel arena - to provincial Klagenfurt (capacity circa 20,000). They're treating the game as an experiment, so don't be surprised to see them blooding a few young uns here too. Yes, they want to win, obviously, but the bald fact is that in this encounter, all things considered, the bigger and most immediate incentive favours Israel. It's sink or swim. Israel as we already know have been banging in the goals throughout the campaign. I'd expect a silly best-of-5 or 6 goals type affair here. And at around 4/1 for an away win, it has to be a tempting punt. The time difference between us finishing in Moldova, and the Israel match kicking off later on, can work both ways. As things stand, it's unknowable how this will affect events in Austria. Suffice to say, backing Israel in Austria is a win-win for Scotland fans. You either collect a tidy sum if Israel win, or are delighted if they DON'T win because whatever else happens, it makes our passage to the play offs so much easier. 20 quid on Israel.

As for Denmark...logic and probability dictates that we are very unlikely to beat them at Hampden. Or even draw. They are currently the only European nation with a 100% WC qualifying record, and we all saw how good they were at the recent Euros (and without their most influential player to boot). It would in my opinion be an excruciating prospect having to get something out of that game at Hampden against them to qualify. It's only the blindly optimistic/deluded who can possibly think otherwise. I cannot recall the last time we beat a top seed at home...was it even this century?  Frankly, we simply must win in Moldova, a match that is already causing me some sleepless nights, given the litany of f**k-ups we have historically posted against the lower orders. And lets not forget we only scraped a 1-0 against Moldova at Hampden a few months ago. Georgia on my mind, anyone?

The nightmare scenario i outlined in my original post - losing out on goal difference/goals scored - to Israel, remains possible. Let's hope it turns out to be misplaced pessimism.  

[Melanius Mullarkey]

So this thread is a tipster thread now then.

[ropy]

Surely there is more scope within the playoff process to do Scotland things and muck it up.

[nate]

38 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

So this thread is a tipster thread now then.

No it isn't really. The betting bumph is an aside to the general, and more important, point that Israel, under the circumstances, are meeting Austria at a very advantageous time. Were this, say, the opening match of the section, you'd find it difficult to present a case for Israel. As things stand, they will never have a better chance of finishing 2nd or 3rd in a WC section. Forget the tips, as the old Israeli (crude) joke has it.  

[John Lambies Doos]

Surely head to head trumps GD?

[Donathan]

24 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Surely head to head trumps GD?

Not in FIFA organised competitions.

[nate]

21 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Surely head to head trumps GD?

No it's goal difference (then goals scored if GD is level). That's what makes the situation a bit scarier for us...Israel v Faroes in the final match while we're taking on Denmark. We really gotta dispose of Moldova, no doubt about it, no excuses

[John Lambies Doos]

No it's goal difference (then goals scored if GD is level). That's what makes the situation a bit scarier for us...Israel v Faroes in the final match while we're taking on Denmark. We really gotta dispose of Moldova, no doubt about it, no excuses

I just can't see Israel winning in Austria

[Billy Jean King]

Folks, an indication of Austria's appetite for their match against Israel is that they have moved the fixture from big bad Vienna - the imposing Ernst Happel arena - to provincial Klagenfurt (capacity circa 20,000). They're treating the game as an experiment, so don't be surprised to see them blooding a few young uns here too. Yes, they want to win, obviously, but the bald fact is that in this encounter, all things considered, the bigger and most immediate incentive favours Israel. It's sink or swim. Israel as we already know have been banging in the goals throughout the campaign. I'd expect a silly best-of-5 or 6 goals type affair here. And at around 4/1 for an away win, it has to be a tempting punt. The time difference between us finishing in Moldova, and the Israel match kicking off later on, can work both ways. As things stand, it's unknowable how this will affect events in Austria. Suffice to say, backing Israel in Austria is a win-win for Scotland fans. You either collect a tidy sum if Israel win, or are delighted if they DON'T win because whatever else happens, it makes our passage to the play offs so much easier. 20 quid on Israel.
As for Denmark...logic and probability dictates that we are very unlikely to beat them at Hampden. Or even draw. They are currently the only European nation with a 100% WC qualifying record, and we all saw how good they were at the recent Euros (and without their most influential player to boot). It would in my opinion be an excruciating prospect having to get something out of that game at Hampden against them to qualify. It's only the blindly optimistic/deluded who can possibly think otherwise. I cannot recall the last time we beat a top seed at home...was it even this century?  Frankly, we simply must win in Moldova, a match that is already causing me some sleepless nights, given the litany of f**k-ups we have historically posted against the lower orders. And lets not forget we only scraped a 1-0 against Moldova at Hampden a few months ago. Georgia on my mind, anyone?
The nightmare scenario i outlined in my original post - losing out on goal difference/goals scored - to Israel, remains possible. Let's hope it turns out to be misplaced pessimism.  

If Scotland win then Israel is basically a dead rubber. The fact our game will be done before Israel kick a ball surely makes this a no toucher betting wise. If we fail to win that will be the time to back Israel, the price won't contract that much.