vikingTON Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 1 hour ago, TxRover said: The flaw in this analysis is... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 A year ago today Russian military equipment started to be moved. Also just over a year ago was the first use of a TB2 drone by Ukrainian forces in the Donbas. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 (edited) Well this answers the question of how post congress Xi would act, Wang Yi has been glowing in his support of Russia. https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-lavrov-holds-call-with-chinese-counterpart-thanks-support-ukraine-2022-10-27/ The article only gives the basics but the MFA has apparently released a statement. An (unverified) translation here No hint of physical support though. Just diplomatic atm. Edited October 28, 2022 by dorlomin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 (edited) https://www.uawire.org/two-military-commanders-allegedly-responsible-for-the-supply-of-kamikaze-drones-to-russia-killed-in-iran Quote The head of the regional intelligence of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Colonel Molashakhi, as well as the general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Basij), Javad Kikha, were shot dead in a car in the city of Zahedan. According to media reports, they were likely responsible for the supply of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones to Russia for its war against Ukraine. Edited October 28, 2022 by Newbornbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 28 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: https://www.uawire.org/two-military-commanders-allegedly-responsible-for-the-supply-of-kamikaze-drones-to-russia-killed-in-iran More likely to be a response to this massacre of Sunnis than the drones imo, which anyone could supply. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202210236152 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 An unnamed foreign power blew up an Irainian transport plane at Damascus Airport. Apparently the type of plane that can transport drones. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Major development if accurate: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Shiogu has reported that Russia's mobilisation is complete, with 300,000 soldiers drafted. He has stated there are no plans for further mobilisations. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheScarf Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 2 hours ago, ICTChris said: Shiogu has reported that Russia's mobilisation is complete, with 300,000 soldiers drafted. He has stated there are no plans for further mobilisations. They better get much, much better at war then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Ian Bremmer in a 10 minute interview covers Russias dirty bomb threats, Xi and Putin then Musk and Twitter. Boiling down the key point for the Ukraine crisis: Russia now regards Kherson as Russia so they seem to be trying to manufacture some leverage with the west over the implied threat of going nuclear and using the dirty bomb as an excuse. That is actually something I had not thought about, that all the noise was simply a really badly hidden "false flag" but rather a threat to the west over going nuclear over Kherson without drawing out red lines. The west does have an advantage here, the sheer number of precision weapons we have actually perform most of the battlefield tasks that used to be assigned to tactical nuclear weapons. Something like taking out an airbase is now about 10 Tomahawks. Taking out a bridge would be a single F-16s worth of GPS guided bombs. So when the west threatens to respond conventionally to a Russian use of a nuclear weapon its a very real threat. BUT (like the Kardashians, anything nuclear always comes with huge buts) even a western conventional intervention could trigger escalations that put us further up the escalation ladder towards global nuclear war with strategic weapons. His point on Xi and Putin is that Xi has minimal influence. But I am not sure that Xi's public scolding of Russia is really what they are saying in private. We shall see. What Xi has that Putin badly badly needs is trucks. Good off road trucks. But Xi seems to be living with a ticking clock over retaking Taiwan so may not want to deliver even those, if Putin was smart enough to ask for them. The 2020s is not really a matter of "crisis, what crisis?" more "crisis? which one?" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alta-pete Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 2 hours ago, ICTChris said: Shiogu has reported that Russia's mobilisation is complete, with 300,000 soldiers drafted. He has stated there are no plans for further mobilisations. If I heard it right, there was an astonishing quote on the radio the other day that, as a Russian soldier, your chances of getting killed, injured out of action or just plain MIA were currently something like 50/50. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karpaty Lviv Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 (edited) Made it back to Poland and flying home tomorrow. Was great to see to friends again and it’s pretty moving really to see how they’re dealing with the current situation. Got grilled on the train from L’viv to Peremsyl about my visit but all was good. I’m quite clearly not a solider so they were happy with my explanation. Hopefully next year things will improve but obviously it’s impossible to predict these things. Слава Україні! (Glory to Ukraine for those offended last time). Edited October 28, 2022 by Karpaty Lviv 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 2 hours ago, dorlomin said: even a western conventional intervention could trigger escalations that put us further up the escalation ladder towards global nuclear war with strategic weapons. Any direct NATO intervention will end in a Russian nuclear strike, either in a desperate Russian attempt at a decapitation strike, or in response to a NATO attempt at similar. That should be absolutely clear to everyone. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 These are the heads of government of two former Russian colonies. Sanna Marin of Finland on the left and Zelenskyy or Ukraine on the right. They are also at the opposite ends of the Human Development Index for Europe. I do not support Ukraine because they are some blemishless country who are world paragons in human rights. I do so because they deserve the same chance that Latvia, Czechia and East Germany got, to get the f**k out of the Russian heal and build a decent country for themselves and their people. There is a reason Eastern and Northern Europe is so solidly behind Ukraine. Kunt above me is giving it the big one about nuclear risks. Ukrainians want to join the European Union because it has meant economic growth for so many East European countries. This and not NATO is at the beating heart of 2014 and this crisis. The EU is not invading Ukraine to force them to join us, Russia is doing that to prevent it. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 34 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Any direct NATO intervention will end in a Russian nuclear strike, either in a desperate Russian attempt at a decapitation strike, or in response to a NATO attempt at similar. That should be absolutely clear to everyone. Can't compete with a direct line to the Kremlin for analysis. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Can't compete with a direct line to the Kremlin for analysis. Lolwut? NATO forces would easily annihilate Russian forces in a conventional war. Given the Russian Nuclear doctrine permits the use of nuclear weapons when there is an existential threat to Russia, which part of the post you have quoted do you disagree with? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, dorlomin said: These are the heads of government of two former Russian colonies. Sanna Marin of Finland on the left and Zelenskyy or Ukraine on the right. They are also at the opposite ends of the Human Development Index for Europe. I do not support Ukraine because they are some blemishless country who are world paragons in human rights. I do so because they deserve the same chance that Latvia, Czechia and East Germany got, to get the f**k out of the Russian heal and build a decent country for themselves and their people. There is a reason Eastern and Northern Europe is so solidly behind Ukraine. Kunt above me is giving it the big one about nuclear risks. Ukrainians want to join the European Union because it has meant economic growth for so many East European countries. This and not NATO is at the beating heart of 2014 and this crisis. The EU is not invading Ukraine to force them to join us, Russia is doing that to prevent it. What the f**k has this birthday caird pish got to do with my post about there being no end game other than a Russian nuclear strike if NATO forces get directly involved in this war? -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Just now, Todd_is_God said: Lolwut? NATO forces would easily annihilate Russian forces in a conventional war. Given the Russian Nuclear doctrine permits the use of nuclear weapons when there is an existential threat to Russia, which part of the post you have quoted do you disagree with? Your certainty. Your post was a reply to someone suggesting that a conventional response from Nato to Russian assets in Ukraine to a tactical nuclear strike by Russia in Ukraine would be sufficient rather than responding with nukes. You're saying that if NATO responded conventionally Russia would escalate to a full scale nuclear exchange immediately. How can you know? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Your certainty. Your post was a reply to someone suggesting that a conventional response from Nato to Russian assets in Ukraine to a tactical nuclear strike by Russia in Ukraine would be sufficient rather than responding with nukes. You're saying that if NATO responded conventionally Russia would escalate to a full scale nuclear exchange immediately. How can you know? If you can point to where I said (or even implied) "immediately" i'll respond. Edited October 28, 2022 by Todd_is_God 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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