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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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23 minutes ago, virginton said:

The Russian Federation only fails if both its elites and citizens decide on an alternative. There's no prospect of that happening any time soon - and even if it did, Kaliningrad would simply remain attached to whatever rump successor state emerges with the military hardware and the seat on the Security Council.

Given that Transnistria has persisted for decades there is absolutely zero prospect of Kaliningrad going anywhere else.

Your nonsense scenarios are not worth entertaining any longer. 

Not trying to entertain you. Not relying on your pronouncements either. Nice to see you are capable of making a post without OTT insults.

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After reports of a unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack in Bakhmut there were reports of Ukraine withdrawing from the city.  Now Prigoazhin has made a video saying Ukraine is reinforcing troops in Bakhmut and that there are tens of thousands there.

Who knows what's going on.

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11 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

After reports of a unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack in Bakhmut there were reports of Ukraine withdrawing from the city.  Now Prigoazhin has made a video saying Ukraine is reinforcing troops in Bakhmut and that there are tens of thousands there.

Who knows what's going on.

Me, obviously, as I've just left a briefing in Red Square.

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2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

After reports of a unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack in Bakhmut there were reports of Ukraine withdrawing from the city.  Now Prigoazhin has made a video saying Ukraine is reinforcing troops in Bakhmut and that there are tens of thousands there.

Who knows what's going on.

Best not to fixate too much on the latest twitter rumours basically and stick to a quick daily read of the sources with a track record of being reasonably balanced and reliable. It is about to get very muddy by all accounts so maybe the Ukrainians were able to keep enough of a supply line open to be able to hang in there until the fields dry out again, by which time a lot of western tanks and infantry vehichles will have arrived. Time will tell. Think the interesting angle over the last couple of days is how far into Russia and occupied Crimea the Ukrainians appear to be able to strike now. This isn't exactly next door, for example:

Adygea-map.jpg?w=1070

 

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16 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Best not to fixate too much on the latest twitter rumours basically and stick to a quick daily read of the sources with a track record of being reasonably balanced and reliable. It is about to get very muddy by all accounts so maybe the Ukrainians were able to keep enough of a supply line open to be able to hang in there until the fields dry out again, by which time a lot of western tanks and infantry vehichles will have arrived. Time will tell. Think the interesting angle over the last couple of days is how far into Russia and occupied Crimea the Ukrainians appear to be able to strike now. This isn't exactly next door, for example:

Adygea-map.jpg?w=1070

 

The range shown by these and other strikes puts Moscow as a marginally in range target. It would be pretty stupid to hit Moscow, in my opinion, but it certainly can’t have missed notice by Putin and Co.

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Russia has opened sluices on the Kakhovka dam since November of 2022, and is effectively slowly draining the Kakhovka reservoir, with a drop of 3+ metres so far (from ~16m to ~13m). The sluices on the western end of the dam (Ukrainian control) remain closed. This raises the water levels below the dam (Dnipro River), improving the Russian defensive positions on the eastern shore near Kherson, especially since the majority of the flood plain is on the eastern shore. It also reduces water reserves for crops, threatens to dry out the irrigation canal for Crimea and threatens the cooling capacity of the nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia. An emergency solution will be necessary with about a metre of additional water level drop.

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Russian state media and pro-Russian channels are reporting that Ukrainian fighters have attacked villages in Bryansk, over the border into Russia proper.  No independent confirmation or footage at all, could well be a load of pish.

Russian media reporting that there will be a meeting of the State Security Council later today.  Reports taht there is a hostage situation in a village in Bryansk region.

Edited by ICTChris
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There has been a video released showing pro-Ukrainian Russians of the Russian Volunteer Corp  in a village in Bryansk.  Edited to add subtitled videos

 

 

Unsure how legit this is.  The Russian Volunteer Corp is an organisation that has sprung up since the war began and they claimed the bombing of Dugin's daughter.  I think most people consider them pretty insignificant.

The videos look a bit weird to me.  Ukrainian intelligence warned a few weeks ago about the possiblity of 'false flag' attacks by Russia to justify escalations.

Edited by ICTChris
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3 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Guy holding the flag in the first video is a pretty mature student.

I don't think they'll be getting much of a welcome in Ukraine if they make it back. It's all very curious though, Kapustin/Nakutin's bragged about having close contacts in the FSB before.

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/denis-nikitin-rechtsextremismus-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html

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Sounds like more of a dangerous prank than anything, not sure what they mean by "neutralising" a border guard but it sounds like he was the only casualty and they all got away before any serious opposition arrived.

https://wartranslated.com/statement-by-an-alleged-participant-of-the-2-march-bryansk-incident/

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Quote

Closer to half of the time we spent there, a fight with f*ggots on vehicles broke out, but what is particularly funny is that vehicles were suppressed by grenade launchers and retreated, and never emerged again.

Completely bizarre. I mean, I know we're in full-on Russia is bad m'kay mode, but 2 things -

1. They could at least ditch the vernacular and refer to them as homosexuals.

2. How on earth did they conclude the enemy combatants they encountered were homosexuals in the first place? Did they arrive waving Pride flags and riding on Mardi-Gras floats made up to resemble BMPs & BRDMs?

TBH I think it would be great if Ukraine and Russia just left it to their homosexual populations to resolve the conflict. They could probably settle it via a dance-off and a drag competition, and that would be lovely. FWIW if I was wearing 9 inch heels, a beehive wig, falsies, and had spent hours doing my make-up and some slag suppressed me with a grenade launcher, I'd probably flounce off in a huff and not come back again either. Bitches. :angry:

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With big pro Russian demos being organised by a Russian funded group in Moldova and statements like this coming out, along with fake reports about the Romanian army massing on the Moldovan border, and military exercises supposedly starting in Transnistria,  sounds very much like Russia has something nasty planned. 

Quote

The Russian Defence Ministry on Thursday claimed that Ukraine is preparing an "armed provocation" against Transnistria, an unrecognized breakaway region internationally recognized as part of Moldova but currently controlled by pro-Russian separatists.

The statement claimed that an offensive against Russian troops in the breakaway region is planned to be staged, with Ukrainian forces allegedly being dressed in the uniform of the Russian Armed Forces.

 

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2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

With big pro Russian demos being organised by a Russian funded group in Moldova and statements like this coming out, along with fake reports about the Romanian army massing on the Moldovan border, and military exercises supposedly starting in Transnistria,  sounds very much like Russia has something nasty planned. 

 

Russia just habitually lies, then lies about the lies. Nobody listens to them, very few want to even be in the same room as them -

 

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18 hours ago, Boo Khaki said:

Completely bizarre. I mean, I know we're in full-on Russia is bad m'kay mode, but 2 things -

1. They could at least ditch the vernacular and refer to them as homosexuals.

2. How on earth did they conclude the enemy combatants they encountered were homosexuals in the first place? Did they arrive waving Pride flags and riding on Mardi-Gras floats made up to resemble BMPs & BRDMs? :angry: ....

Maybe worth bearing in mind that Scottish society is only 30 years or so beyond thinking a certain chant about Jimmy Hill was harmless banter. Why did the collective brain trust behind that little ditty conclude it about him or was it just the immediate go to insult used in any and all situations regardless of whether it actually made sense or not?

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4 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Maybe worth bearing in mind that Scottish society is only 30 years or so beyond thinking a certain chant about Jimmy Hill was harmless banter. Why did the collective brain trust behind that little ditty conclude it about him or was it just the immediate go to insult used in any and all situations regardless of whether it actually made sense or not?

It's because he was English

 

 

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Extremely close combat footage from Bakhmut, with Ukrainians firing across the street at Russians 20 metres away. You can see them using Bulgarian anti-personnel RPGs, the long thin missiles they use. More of them are being seen in footage in the last few weeks.

Strange to see the translations, the guys shouting “take that you bellend” at Russians they fire at and then chat about their lost gloves.

Edited by ICTChris
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