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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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Interesting thread about Wagner and their prospects in Bakhmut. Basically, the Russian MoD have reduced their shells perhaps due to the backbiting between Prigozhin and Shiogu more likely that the Russians are having supply issues with shells and ammo generally. Wagner have also been prevented from recruiting prisoners so have severe manpower issues. Their tactics have gained some territory but they may have a hard time holding it against a counterattack and they don’t have established defensive lines.

 

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1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Interesting thread about Wagner and their prospects in Bakhmut. Basically, the Russian MoD have reduced their shells perhaps due to the backbiting between Prigozhin and Shiogu more likely that the Russians are having supply issues with shells and ammo generally. Wagner have also been prevented from recruiting prisoners so have severe manpower issues. Their tactics have gained some territory but they may have a hard time holding it against a counterattack and they don’t have established defensive lines.

 

Maybe it's just that Prigozhin promised Bakhmut about 9 months ago with his boys shoving prisoners up to the front, and the results have been pretty poor. I think you forgot to post the thread link.

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On 20/02/2023 at 14:47, LongTimeLurker said:

I have no strong opinion about that ammunition depot and its significance, but one thing that I think is obvious is that the Ukrainians have been dropping heavy hints for a while that they want to be invited into Moldova:

Transnistria has been sitting there for decades waiting for a Russian leader to do what Vlad did. Getting rid of it makes Odessa and what remains of their Black Sea coastline significantly more secure for the Ukrainians.

Probably not necessary to invade it to do that.  Cutting off supply and contact with Russia itself should eventually do the trick, much like may well happen with Crimea.  Can't really maintain a force of any kind, even just a few guys guarding an ammunition depot, without lines of communication and supply.  That is likely already happening, and it'll be left to Moldova to do the tough work of reasserting control over their territory over the Dniester (no idea how that will be done, but it will be necessary - perhaps with Romanian support?)  Best if UAF stays well out of it.

Agree about the ammunition.  Given the quality of ammo actually sent to Russian front line troops in Ukraine (rusted, dud, or made of potatoes), goodness knows what the stuff left in depots elsewhere is like.  Might be good for selling on eBay as Soviet memorabilia though....

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2 hours ago, Braesoyetts said:

Probably not necessary to invade it to do that.  Cutting off supply and contact with Russia itself should eventually do the trick, much like may well happen with Crimea.  Can't really maintain a force of any kind, even just a few guys guarding an ammunition depot, without lines of communication and supply.  That is likely already happening, and it'll be left to Moldova to do the tough work of reasserting control over their territory over the Dniester (no idea how that will be done, but it will be necessary - perhaps with Romanian support?)  Best if UAF stays well out of it.

Agree about the ammunition.  Given the quality of ammo actually sent to Russian front line troops in Ukraine (rusted, dud, or made of potatoes), goodness knows what the stuff left in depots elsewhere is like.  Might be good for selling on eBay as Soviet memorabilia though....

The problem with the ammo is heavily concentrated on the artillery shells, mainly because most Soviet eras systems use separate charges and shells. The shells are relatively stable, but the charges are much more vulnerable to becoming unstable due to storage conditions. The small arms ammunition is likely usable for another 50-100 years.

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20 minutes ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

I have meat and two veg they can get stuck into.

I suspect you’re the one wanting to get sticking…and there is a minor risk: 

“An Arlington woman and purported mail-order bride from Russia who was accused of killing her husband’s 8-year-old son and his ex-wife pleaded guilty to two counts of capital murder Tuesday morning, according to prosecutors.”

 

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Watching a YouTube video about Ukrainian partisans and it reminded me of the first few days of the full scale invasion last year when the Ukrainian state were handing out rifles, RPGs, grenades and molotov cocktails to literally anyone who turned up at their local post office (or whatever); after the war, how will Ukraine control the unregistered, freely distributed military firearms? Bearing in mind, that it wasn't only a few rusty AKs that were handed out, but all sorts of small arms and heavy weapons, plus bounty captured from Russian (or pro) forces. I mean, it wasn't exactly a stable, wealthy, fair country before 2014/2022. A massive proliferation of arms and no tracking of same on top of war torn civil divisions will probably all work out fine.

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11 hours ago, Sweet Pete said:

Watching a YouTube video about Ukrainian partisans and it reminded me of the first few days of the full scale invasion last year when the Ukrainian state were handing out rifles, RPGs, grenades and molotov cocktails to literally anyone who turned up at their local post office (or whatever); after the war, how will Ukraine control the unregistered, freely distributed military firearms? Bearing in mind, that it wasn't only a few rusty AKs that were handed out, but all sorts of small arms and heavy weapons, plus bounty captured from Russian (or pro) forces. I mean, it wasn't exactly a stable, wealthy, fair country before 2014/2022. A massive proliferation of arms and no tracking of same on top of war torn civil divisions will probably all work out fine.

You're right,it would have been much better for future law&order to just let the Russians march in

That's like worrying about the water damage when the fire brigade are fighting a fire at your house

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52 minutes ago, highlandcowden said:

You're right,it would have been much better for future law&order to just let the Russians march in

That's like worrying about the water damage when the fire brigade are fighting a fire at your house

Weird take. I'm not suggesting that Ukraine shouldn't have defended itself against invasion, nor am I suggesting it shouldn't still continue to do so. I'm saying, when the war with Russia is over, they'll have some other problems to deal with. I know it's not trendy to say something other than "slava Ukrainia", but just because some truths aren't nice to hear, doesn't make them untrue.

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