Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

No one really has an answer to what Russia can 'afford' to lose. They survived the 90s and were able to rebuild the state despite billionaires and western capital looting it. They are starting from a far higher base here and don't have to worry about wealth leaking west. 

The real question for people like us should be what am I prepared to lose and do we have any say in it?

Yes, we like to think of the world as some sort of global family nowadays where we're all in it together (well apart from the ones starving in Africa of course as they don't seem to count).

However, as you say, will the average guy in the street in the UK, US, France, Germany, Spain etc all accept a big knock to their disposable income, a massive dent to their public services and generally a massive drop in their living standards over something that they have no control over ??

And of course, that's just the lucky ones.

I'm not so sure....

[Salt n Vinegar]

10 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

Reminds me of the time I dated the Russian 10-pin bowling champion - Nockola Pinsova.

Russia runs out of spare parts for their mine detectors, resulting in desperate alternatives being used, according to spokesman Yaputcha Leftleggin. 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Dev said:

Isn't it more about what the men behind Putin are prepared to accept in terms of loss of wealth? 

It'll be interesting to see what knocks they are prepared to take before it's "decision time" about who is Russia's front man and how Russia reaches a secure long-term financial future.

Yes, this really seems to be the only "out" as it were.

We need to hope that these guys take him out from the inside, otherwise I can't honestly see how this gets resolved without some serious bloodshed, which will make what's happening in the Ukraine right now look like nothing more than a distraction.

Of course, the Genie is already out of the bottle as regards the humanitarian crisis and the literally millions of refugees pouring into Eastern European countries, many of which just don't have the infrastructure to support them and that's just going to get worse.

Whatever way you look at it, there's really nothing positive anywhere other than I suppose the goodwill shown by the likes of Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Moldova and their people....

[Florentine_Pogen]

No because the people who really weild power in Russia aren't the 'oligarchs' it's the security state. And they aren't the ones buying super yachts. 

I'd take a gamble that you're wrong on this.......

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, Florentine_Pogen said:

They might be starting from a higher base in that they have (had?) a $640bn reserve

Most of that has been frozen by the Americans apparently, you'd have thought Russia might have anticipated that and squirrelled it away. Really does look like Putin was sure it would all be over with a quick putsch in Kiev and a fait accompli, with a light slap on the the wrist from the West, sanctioning a few more disposable oligarchs.

[ICTChris]

The remaining oligarchs will accept what Putin tells them to accept. The oligarchs don’t have any political power anymore, they exist in the gift of Putin and the security state. If he tells them “unlucky, you now have $2bn instead of $10bn” they have to accept it.

The security state aren’t likely to overthrow Putin, they have been dependent on him for patronage and leadership. I doubt many of them have been selected on the basis of being able to lead.

I do think there’s a difference between the 1990s In Russia and now. It’s kind of like people saying that we can accept price increases after Brexit because we did things differently in the 1970s but on steroids. I can’t really see any basis for Putin leaving office due to this though - there is no opposition movement, really, and a coup is unlikely. Unless Ukraine somehow defeat Russia on the battlefield, which is highly unlikely, I think the most likely scenario is a longer war that leads to a settlement due to military and economic pressure. 

Medium to long term though the war could be bad news for Putin. It’s likely thousands of people have died due to his decisions and there are many many Russian troops who will come home knowing that. There are lots of National Guard and police units that are taking heavy losses, these guys will come home and word will spread, the families of those killed will also be a factor. It also looks like Putin has disregarded advice from the security and foreign policy establishment on the invasion, that might have a few people wondering about the future. But this is all probably months and years down the line.

[Detournement]

2 minutes ago, Florentine_Pogen said:

18 minutes ago, Detournement said:

No because the people who really weild power in Russia aren't the 'oligarchs' it's the security state. And they aren't the ones buying super yachts. 

I'd take a gamble that you're wrong on this.......

If the likes of Abramovich and Deprioskia wielded any real political power this wouldn't have happened. Google 'Siloviki' for recent article about who genuinely wields power in Russia. 

[Florentine_Pogen]

"Sir Roger Gale (Con) says Priti Patel told MPs yesterday that a visa application centre en route to Calais had already been set up. That was untrue, he says. He says in a normal administration that would be a resignation matter.

He says the government should set up a visa waiver system so that children and adults with Ukrainian passports can enter the country now."

[Florentine_Pogen]

If the likes of Abramovich and Deprioskia wielded any real political power this wouldn't have happened. Google 'Siloviki' for recent article about who genuinely wields power in Russia. 

Didn't make myself clear, slightly tongue-in-cheek comment was suggesting there are security folk with big yachts. [emoji848]

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, Florentine_Pogen said:

"Sir Roger Gale (Con) says Priti Patel told MPs yesterday that a visa application centre en route to Calais had already been set up. That was untrue, he says. He says in a normal administration that would be a resignation matter.

He says the government should set up a visa waiver system so that children and adults with Ukrainian passports can enter the country now."
 

Quote

Eventually, Misha spoke to a Border Force official who advised him to head across town to the old port building.

He has a car and was able to drive there. But when he arrived, the Home Office representation amounted to three men at a table in a deserted departure hall with bags of ready salted crisps and chocolate bars.

When Misha asked them how he could get home to England with his family, he was told he could have an appointment in Paris on 15 March.

Ukrainians on way to UK hit paperwork dead-end in Calais

[ICTChris]

This French analyst publishes daily reviews of the conflict that I find pretty balanced and fair

 

[renton]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7

Rest of this week could be fairly pivotal.

[itzdrk]

39 minutes ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

Russia runs out of spare parts for their mine detectors, resulting in desperate alternatives being used, according to spokesman Yaputcha Leftleggin. 

We need R Di. 

[Florentine_Pogen]

LME cancels nickel trades after 'unprecented' events

Wow. The London Metal Exchange (LME) has now cancelled all nickel trades that took place today, as the price doubled to a record $100,000 per tonne.

It has acted after prices doubled in a matter of hours in a remarkable short squeeze which reportedly leaves a Chinese nickel tycoon facing heavy losses potentially running into billions of dollars.

Having already suspended nickel trading this morning (see here), the LME has now decided to cancel today’s trades executed since 00:00 UK time before trading was suspended, and defer delivery of all physically settled Nickel Contracts due for delivery tomorrow.

In a notice to members, the LME says “The current events are unprecedented”, and that it is tracking the impact of the Russia-Ukraine situation on the metals market.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

3 minutes ago, Florentine_Pogen said:

LME cancels nickel trades after 'unprecented' events

Wow. The London Metal Exchange (LME) has now cancelled all nickel trades that took place today, as the price doubled to a record $100,000 per tonne.

It has acted after prices doubled in a matter of hours in a remarkable short squeeze which reportedly leaves a Chinese nickel tycoon facing heavy losses potentially running into billions of dollars.

Having already suspended nickel trading this morning (see here), the LME has now decided to cancel today’s trades executed since 00:00 UK time before trading was suspended, and defer delivery of all physically settled Nickel Contracts due for delivery tomorrow.

In a notice to members, the LME says “The current events are unprecedented”, and that it is tracking the impact of the Russia-Ukraine situation on the metals market.
 

So people will have to take their nickel back?

Spoiler

 

[Father Ted]

4 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

This is significant if it happens:

 

I heard on radio this morning, that we aren't as exposed as other European nations if this goes ahead, as UK gets most of its gas and oil from North Sea and Norway.

 

[beefybake]

49 minutes ago, Detournement said:

No because the people who really weild power in Russia aren't the 'oligarchs' it's the security state. And they aren't the ones buying super yachts. 

Perhaps not.

Lots of the security people are however multi millionnaires. Just another part of the kleptocracy.

When the gas and oil money taps are turned off, that's when people who have nothing, and are hurting the most

at a most basic level..., start looking at who's still floating around in the big BM's. 

[Suspect Device]

Apologies if this has already been posted and apologies because it's from the Sun but it made me laugh.

 

These colours don't run. 

[itzdrk]

3 minutes ago, Father Ted said:

I heard on radio this morning, that we aren't as exposed as other European nations if this goes ahead, as UK gets most of its gas and oil from North Sea and Norway.

 

Only about 5% was the figure I saw a fortnight ago.  As per f**k knows on accuracy. 

[Scary Bear]

18 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Warren Buffet coined the saying about seeing the bodies on the beach when the tide goes out.  It's everyone's misfortune at this time that we have dog-whistle incompetents like Johnson, Truss and Patel on that beach.

You have to question the state of UK politics when the likes of Johnson, Patel and Truss are the PM, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary. It’s embarrassing that these people are representing us on the world stage.