badgertheeuro24witness Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 You just know he's sitting in his parents' garage, in a kid-on a war room made out of discarded Amazon boxes, pretending he's Kissinger. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheese Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 'The best way to stop this war is to continue to fight' The big brain posters are out this morning. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Maybe the best thing is not to stop the war. Maybe the best thing is for the Ukrainians to keep bleeding the Russian military dry whilst the world throttles Russia with sanctions. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 The Institute for the Study of War published this assessment of the state of the campaign. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19 Essentially the initial campaign failed and now we are in a stalemate which could be extremely bloody. I see that the Ukrainian intelligence service have said that they have indications that Russia is preparing for a general mobilisation, which would mean they are planning for a long-term war. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheese Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Yes the best thing is moar war and moar death. Kiev turned to rubble and thousands of civilians dead, but at least they never conceded that Crimea was Russian. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said: Yes the best thing is moar war and moar death. Kiev turned to rubble and thousands of civilians dead, but at least they never conceded that Crimea was Russian. The best solution is to get Putin to stop the slaughter, not for Ukraine to surrender because historical precedent tells us that dictators always want more. Whether he stops because he is defeated or the sanctions are successful or he is overthrown doesn't matter the important thing is he is stopped. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Incredible that anybody thinks that, when somebody marches into your country and destroys it on the flimsiest of pretexts, the answer is to give them what they want because they will absolutely stop there. As nobody else is going to give any physical help, Ukraine's fucked either way. Nobody should blame them for going down fighting. 18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian1 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 1 hour ago, virginton said: There's no evidence of indiscriminate murder of women and children FFS. Once Ukraine's defence strategists - quite understandably - opted for defending urban areas to the death, high civilian casualties were the all too inevitable consequence of the fighting. They knew this as much as Russian generals know that any offensive would be extremely grisly business. That's the reality of urban warfare. If Ukraine's military wanted to defend its country while being concerned to limit civilian casualties then both sides could have deployed its forces for a relatively open Kursk-type battle. It would likely have led to military defeat for Ukraine, but a decisive end to war is much better for most parties involved than turning every major city into a hellscape because you don't want to change a ridiculous clause in your constitution. Is this you just being contrarian again? Aye, that shell that hit flat 37B on the 13th floor was targeted........oh and sorry for shooting the family crossing the road to escape the shelling...i was just cleaning my rifle. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 1 hour ago, virginton said: Erm, Ukraine or mebbe Georgia. Russia is a power in disastrous long-term decline and its fragility has currently been shown up by a war with a non-NATO opponent. Its fighting power only goes downhill from here as sanctions on an already decrepit economy and pathetic levels of research funding kick in. The idea that they're going to go waltzing into Riga off the back of this non-existent 'triumph' is just nonsense. The impact of this war on the other frozen and not-so frozen conflicts in the former Soviet Union will be interesting. Obviously it's very much secondary to what's happening in Ukraine but longer term the war will have an impact. Ngorno-Karabakh was the only post-Soviet conflict that didn't have Russian troops on teh ground until the end of the 2020 war, when they were pushed in as peacekeepers on a five year rolling plan. This has been a major strategic goal for Moscow but it was achieved in a way that probably weakened Moscow's influence - their ally Armenia was defeated and Azerbijan worked very closely with Turkey on military technology and support. The conflict bubbles on, with Azeri troops cutting off the gas to thousands of Armenian homes last week and shooting at people trying to repair the line. This was repaired after the Russian peacekeepers interevened. I think the Russian troops here are military police and there haven't been any withdrawals to go to Ukraine. Russia also provides border troops for Armenia and has two military bases in the country, which have seen troops shipped to the war. Fewer Russian border guards could embolden Azeri atempts to secure more territory in disputed border areas. In Georgia, there have been confirmed reports of Russian troops leaving South Ossetia to go to Ukraine. There have also been confirmed reports of Ossetian troops also going, which is kind of insane. South Ossetia has a population about the same as Falkirk, if they are sending their troops to Ukraine, who the hell is staying there? I've not heard anything about the troops in Abkhazia. The Georgian government initially refused to condemn or impose sanctions on Russia, perhaps this has lead Russia to assess that the Georgians aren't going to try to take advantage of the situation. It would be fairly reckless of them to do so. In Transnistria there has been a lot of talk about Russia trying to establish control across Southern Ukraine to link Transnistira to Crimea and the Donbas. That doesn't appear imminent. There were rumours that some missiles have been launched by Russian troops in Transnistria but again there's been no confirmation. Moldova's government has made some statements about wanting the Russian troops out during the war, perhaps wanting to ride the wave. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheese Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: The best solution is to get Putin to stop the slaughter, not for Ukraine to surrender because historical precedent tells us that dictators always want more. Whether he stops because he is defeated or the sanctions are successful or he is overthrown doesn't matter the important thing is he is stopped. How many Ukrainians are you willing to sacrifice for this ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said: How many Ukrainians are you willing to sacrifice for this ? As many as they're willing to sacrifice themselves. It's not our choice. They need outside help to defend themselves, but they aren't going to get it, unfortunately. If they believe that enduring this is better than life under a tyrannical madman, I can't say I blame them. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 P&B's suggestion for the new Ukrainian national motto - quisque potest me impune lacessere 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 30 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: The best solution is to get Putin to stop the slaughter, not for Ukraine to surrender because historical precedent tells us that dictators always want more. I'm begging the people of the UK to try viewing history through the prism of something other than WW2. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheese Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, BFTD said: As many as they're willing to sacrifice themselves. It's not our choice. Exactly, which is why we're possibly seeing some progress made in the talks. The 'No surrender, we should fight the Russian orcs to the death' from people standing in London or Washington, or behind a computer screen in Scotland can absolutely get in the bin. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 1 minute ago, invergowrie arab said: I'm begging the people of the UK to try viewing history through the prism of something other than WW2. Do you have a specific example of what prism we should be viewing this through? -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheese Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Oops. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Just now, Detective Jimmy McNulty said: Exactly, which is why we're possibly seeing some progress made in the talks. The 'No surrender, we should fight the Russian orcs to the death' from people standing in London or Washington, or behind a computer screen in Scotland can absolutely get in the bin. I don’t see anyone on here arguing this. Personally I will support the Ukrainian government in whatever decision they take. But I will not advocate capitulation under the guise of realpolitik. If the government and people of Ukraine decide to fight on I would admire their willingness to do so. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 I would be wary of the reports of progress in talks. I don't think there will be a peace agreement imminently. There was a poll of Ukrainians about the war carried out by a Ukrainian company. https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/pyatyy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_18_marta_2022.html One point regarding the peace agreement from the Ukrainian side Quote At the same time, signing a temporary truce with Russia without withdrawing its troops from Ukraine is viewed as unacceptable by Ukrainians (89%). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said: How many Ukrainians are you willing to sacrifice for this ? Not sure it's actually ultimately up to the West to decide that. The strength of Ukrainian resolve even in the more Russified east and south has been surprising and that's something that's coming from them. Germany has just arranged a long term contract with Qatar for liquified natural gas and is talking about fast tracking the construction of two LNG terminals and phasing out Russian gas imports by the end of the year. Not a course of action we would be seeing unfolding if the expectation was that a peace deal will be reached along with a rapid return to normality on trade links. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inanimate Carbon Rod Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 28 minutes ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said: Oops. This is why its stupid letting people go and fight wars where they are more of a hindrance than a help. These are basics but you have these people over there sending all their pictures about how they are ‘there to help’ but essentially only helping the Russians because they are either naive, ill experienced and many seeking attention. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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