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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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Opinion here on how Wagner forces in Syria and Africa may be affected by these Russian goings on. African gold secured by Wagner has provided an important revenue source to Russia since their invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/wagner-group-russia-insurrection-middle-east-africa

The Wagner group in Libya are the most independent of the Russian government. UAE not Russia are actually the main funders and backers of Wagner in Libya. This despite UAE being an ally of USA, a host to US military installations and recipient of US weapons sales. Also the gold that Wagner obtains from Sudan and Central African Republic goes to UAE first before Russia.

Edited by FreedomFarter
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11 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

All three "strongmen" come out of this pretty poorly. Putin isn't as secure as he thought, Prighozin is sidelined in Belarus and Lukasheknko has a potential rival on his turf. No idea how this ends. 

With every single one of them considerably weakened by the pursuit of a foolhardy "SMO". 

Has Prigozhin been so thoroughly de clawed here that Wagner simply ceases to exist, or does he pull them back to conserve his remaining power? Surely he hasn't completely ceded control of his army?

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17 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

All three "strongmen" come out of this pretty poorly. Putin isn't as secure as he thought, Prighozin is sidelined in Belarus and Lukasheknko has a potential rival on his turf. No idea how this ends. 

I doubt Prighozin will live long enough to be any kind of threat to Lukashenko. 

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10 hours ago, highlandmac said:

So really Moscow is a myth too-it was of absolutely no importance in 1812 other than something Napoleon thought he had to have,it was strategically useless

Moscow today certainly isn't a Myth. However, it was important in 1812 for the sole reason that, as you say, Napoleon wanted it.

He put most of his energy into capturing it, and after the city burned and the winter hit, he was left with no choice but to retreat. Moscow was, essentially, used as a massive trap. So for the Russian war plan, it was incredibly important. However, it wouldn't have seen Russia fall as the Tsar and Nobles generally stayed in Petrograd.

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38 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

Is the redemption for Wagner to invade Ukraine from Belarus?

That what the bots on Twitter are saying...it's all been an elaborate ruse so Wagner can move to Belarus so they can take kiev from there 

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6 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

That what the bots on Twitter are saying...it's all been an elaborate ruse so Wagner can move to Belarus so they can take kiev from there 

If Wagner couldn't cope with the odd road block and traffic jam on the M4 to Moscow, I doubt they'd get past all the defensive barriers Ukraine will have built south of Belarus over the past year. It took them at least 6 months just to capture most of Bakhmut, a town smaller than East Kilbride.

Edited by welshbairn
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2 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

With every single one of them considerably weakened by the pursuit of a foolhardy "SMO". 

Has Prigozhin been so thoroughly de clawed here that Wagner simply ceases to exist, or does he pull them back to conserve his remaining power? Surely he hasn't completely ceded control of his army?

Aye, I'm wondering just where the loyalties of the Wagner foot soldiers now lie; their spiritual leader is now holed up in Belarus and I can't imagine that they will be delighted to be co-opted into a military machine which probably views them as a a necessary evil.  Prigozhin seemed to be in absolute control of Wagner, and never mind their overseas mayhem, this could have huge implications for the front line in Ukraine.

Putin seems however to be disinclined to deploy regular forces in numbers, and it may well be as others have suggested that Prigozhin will retain control but his arse is now in Belarus and he'll have been telt to tone down his rhetoric.  Whether the Wagner thugs would be happy with that remains to be seen.

 

Edited by O'Kelly Isley III
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22 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

If Wagner couldn't cope with the odd road block and traffic jam on the M4 to Moscow, I doubt they'd get past all the defensive barriers Ukraine will have built south of Belarus over the past year. It took them at least 6 months just to capture most of Bakhmut, a town smaller than East Kilbride.

The roundabouts probably confused them.

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