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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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10 minutes ago, FreedomFarter said:

The existence of PMCs makes war more likely because governments prefer to use them over their own state military for reasons such as:

- It's a way of shoveling public money into private hands and any time that is being done, corrupt government members can take slices of the deals for themselves.

- It gives nation states plausible deniability. "It wasn't us, it was that PMC over there". UAE has used both Erik Prince's and Yevgeny Prigozhin's PMCs, even in tandem together in Libya, yet faces no repercussions from it due to the plausible deniability. No sanctions or other punishments for UAE 

- It prevents the troops coming home in body bags media phenomenon which is bad for a governments popularity.

There'll be other reasons too but I'm not informed enough to go into it any further. We can see, though, that the very existence of PMCs makes governments more likely to pursue imperialist military choices. So Wagner being available definitely factored into the Kremlin's decision to invade Ukraine and therefore we can blame Wagner for the invasion (as well as all their atrocities since it commenced).

Not like the imperialist governments (US, UK, Russia, China, etc) needed an excuse.

But yes, PMCs do open up a whole new issue in terms of nations being able to do whatever they want unchecked. As Russia shows, Mercenaries being illegal seems to be a law that doesn't apply to the gov't.

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1 minute ago, ClydeTon said:

Not like the imperialist governments (US, UK, Russia, China, etc) needed an excuse.

But yes, PMCs do open up a whole new issue in terms of nations being able to do whatever they want unchecked. As Russia shows, Mercenaries being illegal seems to be a law that doesn't apply to the gov't.

The Honorable East India Company would certainly fit the profile as a PMC, so it’s not really like anything’s being opened up by them now…that wasn’t opened up a while back.

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2 minutes ago, TxRover said:

The Honorable East India Company would certainly fit the profile as a PMC, so it’s not really like anything’s being opened up by them now…that wasn’t opened up a while back.

Long before the days of the UN and their rules on mercenaries in war, however.

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There won't be much to have put Prigozhin and his allies having another bash in 3 months if things don't move to their liking back in Russia.

There has been precedents such as Chile - Tanquetazo

A lack of a cohesive repsonse to his insurgency and the way they were greeted in Rostov-on-Don.

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2 hours ago, ClydeTon said:

If this doesn't say everything:

 

 What Does?

They have the cheek, as well, to have "Non-State-Affiliated Agenda-Free Media. " In their bio...

Israel are a bunch of chancers at every conceivable level. 

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www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-loyalty-question-offensives/

Prigozhin exile may stop Wagner in Ukraine, experts say

Doubts over loyalty towards their leader may also curtail troops from being used again in military offensives

ByColin Freeman IN KRAMATORSK25 June 2023 • 6:55pm

The chaos inflicted on Russia’s armed forces by the Wagner Group coup attempt may prevent it from mounting any further serious military offensives in Ukraine, analysts said on Sunday night.

While the mercenary group’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has ordered his fighters to return to their frontline bases, doubts over the 25,000-strong force’s loyalty is likely to limit their future use to the Russian military’s high command.

Ben Hodges, a former US general, said that even if Wagner’s units were broken up and distributed across the rest of Russia’s military, regular army commanders would be unlikely to fully trust them.

“Wagner troops will either walk away or be distributed across the Russian Army as individual replacements, who will be under suspicion,” he wrote on Twitter.

Under the terms of the truce that saw Prigozhin call off his coup attempt on Saturday, Wagner troops who took part in the mutiny will be offered immunity from prosecution, while others will be permitted to sign formal contracts with the Russian army.

 

It is unclear, though, how many will want to take up the offer – or whether Russian army commanders will really want them in their ranks.

“The whole coup business still seems very murky, but it means that many soldiers have now lost faith in their central command,” said Daniel Ridley, an ex-British soldier who runs the Trident Defence Initiative, a private training programme for Ukrainian forces.

“We may now never see another joint Russian offensive, and what territory Russia still has in Ukraine, they may now struggle to hold on to.”

Wagner’s forces have been involved in some of the heaviest fighting of the war, particularly in the gruelling 10-month battle around the Donbas city of Bakhmut, which the Kremlin has claimed as one of its few victories.

While much of that fighting has been done by Wagner’s ex-convict recruits, who have died in their thousands, the group’s hardcore of professional soldiers remains largely intact, Mr Ridley said.

It was their ranks, he added, not those of the ex-convicts, who appeared to have been leading the coup attempt in Russia.

Professional kit

“You could see that they had professional kit and looked good – these weren’t the convict troops,” he said. “They’re not a spent force at all, otherwise they wouldn’t have attempted the coup in the first place.”

That group’s professional expertise, he added, had been crucial to the Russian push around Donbas cities like Bakhmut and Soledar. Their successes, though, had also nurtured an esprit de corps that made them see themselves as separate from the Russian regulars.

“These people are loyal to Wagner, it’s quite a famous unit now,” he said. “They won’t lightly drop the Wagner patch to sign up for the Russian ministry of defence.”

In and around Bakhmut, where Wagner troops know the ground intimately, the Kremlin was still likely to have to use the Wagner force in some form. “They are willing to take losses and they are also very aggressive,” Mr Ridley added.

However, Russian army commanders are likely to now fear that if they order Wagner troops into any costly battles, they could risk a mutiny in the ranks that could spark a repeat of Saturday’s insurrection.

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Seems the Russian flyboys had a bad time…

“Wagner forces may have shot down up to three Mi-8 MTPR electronic warfare helicopters, one Mi-8 helicopter, one Ka-52 helicopter, one Mi-35 helicopter, one Mi-28 helicopter, and one An-26/Il-28 transport aircraft, resulting in the deaths of at least 13 pilots and airmen - and one of the single deadliest days for the Russian air force of the war in Ukraine to date.”

ISW Summary, 6/24/2023

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Those electronic warfare helicopters are not something that can be written off. I think Russia had 15 of them before the weekend so they’ve lost a fifth of their total fleet of these. Quite a few pilots killed as well, who are a big personnel loss.

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27 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Those electronic warfare helicopters are not something that can be written off. I think Russia had 15 of them before the weekend so they’ve lost a fifth of their total fleet of these. Quite a few pilots killed as well, who are a big personnel loss.

They were reported to be getting 15-20 total of the latest Rychag AV for the Mi8 and I recall reading the one(s) they did get was deployed in the Western military district.

Not good look either way as it was touted as the most modern and powerful ECM system ever used on a rotorcraft.

The older version of the Mi8 EW suites were 70/80's tech I think and plentiful.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, TommyDickFingers said:

They were reported to be getting 15-20 total of the latest Rychag AV for the Mi8 and I recall reading the one(s) they did get was deployed in the Western military district.

Not good look either way as it was touted as the most modern and powerful ECM system ever used on a rotorcraft.

The older version of the Mi8 EW suites were 70/80's tech I think and plentiful.

 

 

Fuxake. Looks like @TxRover is going to have to up his game. 

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