BFTD Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, QOSfan019 said: How did Ukraine play did not watch the game but that score line has me worried for Tuesday Don't be. It was a fairly even game until Ukraine got the second and Armenia chucked it at the back. Ukraine weren't a whole lot better than against us. Some embarrassingly lazy defending from Armenia in the last twenty minutes. No stupid red cards though, so I guess that's an improvement. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuttonDressedAsLahm Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 46 minutes ago, QOSfan019 said: How did Ukraine play did not watch the game but that score line has me worried for Tuesday I stopped watching at 3-0. Ukraine weren’t impressive, but became effective once Armenia’s heads went. It was their ‘B’ team, so that much should be acknowledged. I wouldn’t read a thing into that result beyond that Armenia are dire. Their performance at Hampden was one of the worst outside the minnows we’ve ever seen. Really puts into perspective how bad Ireland were to not only be beaten, but outplayed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuttonDressedAsLahm Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 17 hours ago, Donathan said: Second place rankings (games played) Ukraine 4 (3) Serbia 3 (2) Iceland 3 (3) Montenegro 1 (3) A fair bit can still change, but this is the current rankings with the last games of round 5 being played tonight. What do we want? Serbia not to win tonight; not to win v Norway away on Tuesday. Iceland not to win, but a low scoring win would be fine. Montenegro to win or draw versus Finland. A Finland win would likely make them best-placed second seeds with 7 points. Our position: Beating Ireland means 6 points relative to other groups. Losing to Ukraine leaves us best second placed assuming the above happens. Drawing with both makes second place irrelevant. Anyone confirm my calculations? We’ll know more tonight, though if we fail to win, it’s all or nothing v Ukraine (lose v Ukraine and there’s no chance at best second place). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charger29 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 A fair bit can still change, but this is the current rankings with the last games of round 5 being played tonight. What do we want? Serbia not to win tonight; not to win v Norway away on Tuesday. Iceland not to win, but a low scoring win would be fine. Montenegro to win or draw versus Finland. A Finland win would likely make them best-placed second seeds with 7 points. Our position: Beating Ireland means 6 points relative to other groups. Losing to Ukraine leaves us best second placed assuming the above happens. Drawing with both makes second place irrelevant. Anyone confirm my calculations? We’ll know more tonight, though if we fail to win, it’s all or nothing v Ukraine (lose v Ukraine and there’s no chance at best second place).I've not given up on a home playoff game (with us taking 4pts from the last two) tbh. Still just about possible I think.Come on Albania and whatever combination of results we need from the Norway/Serbia/Slovenia/Sweden mess. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie Of The Month Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Bosnia P4 8pts Israel P4 8pts Scotland P3 6pts Norway P3 4pts So a win on Tuesday guarantees a home playoff. A draw could be enough depending on who finishes bottom of Bosnia's group and therefore have their results v Bosnia not taken into account. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Armenia beating Ireland would also do us a favour because that would take our current tally up to 9 points. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted September 25, 2022 Author Share Posted September 25, 2022 Despite our own good result last night our pot 2 probability has fallen due to the wins for Ukraine and Serbia. Second place rankings: Ukraine 4 (3) Serbia 4 (3) Iceland 3 (3) Montenegro 1 (3) We have 6 from 3, but wouldn’t have any more than this as a point wins us the group anyway. A Sweden win over Slovenia would take them off the bottom and give an extra 2 points to Serbia and a whopping 5 extra to Norway. If Slovenia avoid defeat, it’s not possible for the runner up in that group to be above us. If Sweden do win then we’d need Norway to beat Serbia and it would go to GD. Group B is simple, we need Iceland not to win against Albania. If they do they’ll also be on 6 and in the GD tiebreaker If Romania beat already promoted Bosnia and Montenegro avoid defeat against Finland then Romania will climb off the bottom and Montenegro would gain 6 points from that and go above us. If Romania stay bottom, the group C runner up can only go above us if Finland beat Montenegro. So we pretty much need, if we lose to Ukraine: - Slovenia avoid defeat v Sweden - Albania avoid defeat v Iceland - Bosnia avoid defeat v Romania - Montenegro avoid defeat v Finland All being said we are pretty unlikely to be pot 2 if we lose on Tuesday 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 You're ignoring the fact that if Armenia beat Ireland we'd go to 9 points in that table. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted September 25, 2022 Author Share Posted September 25, 2022 Just now, craigkillie said: You're ignoring the fact that if Armenia beat Ireland we'd go to 9 points in that table. Oh yeah, if that happens we are pretty much guaranteed pot 2. Cant see it happening in Dublin. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charger29 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 So if we draw in Ukraine and Armenia beat Ireland we'd have a home playoff game, right? We'd be on 9, Israel 8 and B&H couldn't get any higher than 8.Alternatively we draw in Ukraine, Slovenia draw/win in Sweden, Norway draw with Serbia, Finland draw/lose vs Montenegro & Romania beat B&H. I believe we'd finish above B&H on goals scored in that scenario (high scoring narrow defeat for B&H could put them above us).Yeah....so it's likely a win is our only hope of being seeded.Edit: in the first scenario I don't think we'd even need the Slovenia vs Sweden result to go our way. Removed it now 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Most likely at least some of the League B winners will qualify automatically since they'll all be in Pot 2. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charger29 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Most likely at least some of the League B winners will qualify automatically since they'll all be in Pot 2.If we're 4th best in League B, I wouldn't feel great relying on two out of Norway, Israel or B&H finishing in the top 2 of their groups.Although it depends on the draw I guess. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambomo Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 When are the playoffs being played? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkst Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jambomo said: When are the playoffs being played? March 2024. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambomo Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 35 minutes ago, Lurkst said: March 2024. Cheers 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effeffsee_the2nd Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Maybe been covered zlready but, does a win in Wednesday give us automatic pot 2 and a home play off, cause if it does I couldn't give a duck about draws. Let's beat these c***s again! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 A draw gets us Pot 2, we might need a win for a home play-off. In my opinion the former is more important, the play-offs will be difficult to qualify from whether we're home or away in the first game, but being in Pot 2 makes us favourites to qualify automatically as long as we don't get a stinking draw. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted September 25, 2022 Author Share Posted September 25, 2022 There is a benefit to winning but I wouldn’t be pushing for a winner if it’s level in the last 10 mins. I’d take a point for sure. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFC. Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Draw will be fine. We should be aiming to finish top 2 now anyway. Getting second seed will absolutely help that, unless we get a complete cnut of a draw. Israel are in pot 2! If we don’t end up in pot 2 but they do, it’ll be an absolute joke. They are fucking pish! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virtual Insanity Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 The Israel thing is a bit shite, get pot 2 by beating Iceland and Albania. They should really be using average points per game rather than just discounting bottom team in each group. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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