Spain (a) in October

[M0rtonfc]

14 hours ago, Donathan said:

If we lose on Thursday then what do we want from Norway v Spain? On one hand a Norway win prevents us from qualifying in this window, but on the other hand a Spain win gives them a great chance to win the group. Maybe a draw? If Spain drop points in Oslo then even despite them beating us, we’d have winning the group in our own hands with two winnable albeit not easy ties in November. 

Thursday - If we manage to sneak a draw or Norway fail to beat Cyprus we are there! - A draw with Spain is good enough because it would mean the absolute worst case scenario is Scotland, Spain & Norway all finish on 16 points but due to a tiebreaker between all 3 teams, I'm sure that would be Scotland 7, Norway 6, Spain 4.

Sunday - If business goes the way we would all predict on Thursday with wins for Spain and Norway it wouldn't change anything, Norway HAVE to beat Spain, anything other than 3 points then we will have 2nd spot at least secured.

Spain should really be winning this on Sunday, they're flying now and lets face it, bar 2 outstanding players Norway are extremely average, them winning all their remaining games? I can't see it.

The only tiny bit of fear I have is that they do somehow take 6 points this week, we take a heavy pumping of Spain then another defeat away to France and then are going to Georgia the following month on the back of 3 defeats desperate to win and avoid a final showdown with Norway, Georgia already out with zero pressure just cries out danger 

 

[Donathan]

3 minutes ago, M0rtonfc said:

Thursday - If we manage to sneak a draw or Norway fail to beat Cyprus we are there! - A draw with Spain is good enough because it would mean the absolute worst case scenario is Scotland, Spain & Norway all finish on 16 points but due to a tiebreaker between all 3 teams, I'm sure that would be Scotland 7, Norway 6, Spain 4.

Sunday - If business goes the way we would all predict on Thursday with wins for Spain and Norway it wouldn't change anything, Norway HAVE to beat Spain, anything other than 3 points then we will have 2nd spot at least secured.

Spain should really be winning this on Sunday, they're flying now and lets face it, bar 2 outstanding players Norway are extremely average, them winning all their remaining games? I can't see it.

The only tiny bit of fear I have is that they do somehow take 6 points this week, we take a heavy pumping of Spain then another defeat away to France and then are going to Georgia the following month on the back of 3 defeats desperate to win and avoid a final showdown with Norway, Georgia already out with zero pressure just cries out danger 

 

I feel pretty calm at the moment about qualifying. I might start to panic if it goes down to the last double header, but for now I’m safe in the knowledge that we just need any of five possible results to go our way to qualify

 

1. We get a point in Spain on Thursday - they’re favourites but we’ve got a puncher’s chance

 

2. Cyprus get a point at home to Norway on Thursday - longest shot of them all

 

3. Spain get a point in Norway on Sunday - best chance of them all

 

4. We win in Georgia next month - We *should* but past history tells us not to count our chickens

 

5. We get a point at home to Norway next month - We *should* but if it comes down to the last game then all of the momentum would be with the visitors

 

3-5 are all 60%+ shots in a vacuum although I do accept the point that if it comes down to the home game vs Norway, it implies that they’ve gotten hot at the right time and we’ve folded like a pack of cards.

 

I’m far more concerned about our ability to win the group though, which is important for seeding purposes. Win the group and we are at worst a second seed and 50/50 chance of pot 1. Come 2nd and we are most likely in pot 3 or maybe even pot 4.

 

If Spain beat us on Thursday night they’d move to within three points of us with a game in hand and a significantly better goal difference and an easier run in. Head to head is the main tiebreaker but if they beat us by 2, it would go to GD which benefits them, and if they beat us by 3+ they clinch the tiebreaker outright.

 

For that reason I would actually take a 1-goal defeat on Thursday right now if you offered me it. It would mean that topping the group remains in our own hands going into the last two games. 

[pthardie]

Would take a 1-0 defeat on Thursday. Spain will finish Norway on Sunday.

Win in Georgia and with Norway out the running I could see Man City having a quiet word before the game at Hampden and Haaland pulling out with a "hamstring problem" and Norway don't have much else beyond Odegaard. 3 points and top of the group.

 

[Arch Stanton]

Arrived yesterday about 1800.

33°C.

Staying in Triana where a "large" beer is about €3. In old town a small beer was €2.75, large €5.50.

Not many Scotland fans here yet, most will arrive tonight or tomorrow.

Chilling just now but off for a tapas lunch and some sightseeing soon.

[M0rtonfc]

7 minutes ago, pthardie said:

Would take a 1-0 defeat on Thursday. Spain will finish Norway on Sunday.

Win in Georgia and with Norway out the running I could see Man City having a quiet word before the game at Hampden and Haaland pulling out with a "hamstring problem" and Norway don't have much else beyond Odegaard. 3 points and top of the group.

 

Aye plus Spain will be desperate to win the group so they'll be treating Norway away as a must win, a draw will basically see Spain through but would put us in the driving seat to top the group with them knowing we are through and playing Georgia & Norway who are oot!

Just fucking get the job done you Spanish babes.

[Pie Of The Month]

That's Lamine Yamal out injured too so don't need to worry about getting ripped apart by a 16 year old.

Fair few missing for Spain now. Yamal, Gaya, Pedri, Yeremy Pino, Dani Olmo and Marco Asensio all missing through injury.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Pie Of The Month

[accies1874]

I'm not worried about us qualifying, I just really hope we get it done on a night we're playing. I know Norway away was the big moment of the campaign, but it would be a shame if fans don't get to celebrate qualification with the players once again. 

[Busta Nut]

I'm getting jealous of everyone leaving now. I don't leave until the mora morning. Night in Ibiza first too.

[MarkoP]

51 minutes ago, Arch Stanton said:

Arrived yesterday about 1800.

33°C.

Staying in Triana where a "large" beer is about €3. In old town a small beer was €2.75, large €5.50.

Not many Scotland fans here yet, most will arrive tonight or tomorrow.

Chilling just now but off for a tapas lunch and some sightseeing soon.

Currently in Madrid where it’s a cool 28C and generally very cool indeed

Train down tomorrow 

Liking the look of that Spain injury list 

Can we dream of qualifying on Thursday?

[Gordon EF]

12 hours ago, ford prefect said:

I remember something similar from Henry after they lost 1-0 at Hampden. Words to the effect of "see you in Paris" what price a Christie 30 yarder in Seville?

Pretty sure Trezeguet in particular was running his mouth. That picture of him looking fucking scunnered after Faddy's goal was enjoyable.

[Virtual Insanity]

37 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Pretty sure Trezeguet in particular was running his mouth. That picture of him looking fucking scunnered after Faddy's goal was enjoyable.

 

[Savage Henry]

2 hours ago, Donathan said:

I feel pretty calm at the moment about qualifying. I might start to panic if it goes down to the last double header, but for now I’m safe in the knowledge that we just need any of five possible results to go our way to qualify

 

1. We get a point in Spain on Thursday - they’re favourites but we’ve got a puncher’s chance

 

2. Cyprus get a point at home to Norway on Thursday - longest shot of them all

 

3. Spain get a point in Norway on Sunday - best chance of them all

 

4. We win in Georgia next month - We *should* but past history tells us not to count our chickens

 

5. We get a point at home to Norway next month - We *should* but if it comes down to the last game then all of the momentum would be with the visitors

 

3-5 are all 60%+ shots in a vacuum although I do accept the point that if it comes down to the home game vs Norway, it implies that they’ve gotten hot at the right time and we’ve folded like a pack of cards.

 

I’m far more concerned about our ability to win the group though, which is important for seeding purposes. Win the group and we are at worst a second seed and 50/50 chance of pot 1. Come 2nd and we are most likely in pot 3 or maybe even pot 4.

 

If Spain beat us on Thursday night they’d move to within three points of us with a game in hand and a significantly better goal difference and an easier run in. Head to head is the main tiebreaker but if they beat us by 2, it would go to GD which benefits them, and if they beat us by 3+ they clinch the tiebreaker outright.

 

For that reason I would actually take a 1-goal defeat on Thursday right now if you offered me it. It would mean that topping the group remains in our own hands going into the last two games. 

1. Let’s presume we lose.  
 

2. Norway will scud them. 
 

3.  Let’s presume Spain win in Norway.   
 

4. We have an off day and lose in Georgia.  
 

where would that put us?  

[TPAFKA Jersey 2]

1 minute ago, Savage Henry said:

1. Let’s presume we lose.  
 

2. Norway will scud them. 
 

3.  Let’s presume Spain win in Norway.   
 

4. We have an off day and lose in Georgia.  
 

where would that put us?  

We’ll have qualified after option 3. 

[Savage Henry]

2 minutes ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said:

We’ll have qualified after option 3. 

Great.  Because that’s how I see it playing out.  

[Virtual Insanity]

19 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

Great.  Because that’s how I see it playing out.  

They don't even need to win, a draw is enough. 

[velo army]

13 hours ago, MazzyStar said:

That’s something very different…

Damnit, I meant to reply to the ETA post with that rather than just posting it sans context.

[Venti]

2 hours ago, Arch Stanton said:

Arrived yesterday about 1800.

33°C.

Staying in Triana where a "large" beer is about €3. In old town a small beer was €2.75, large €5.50.

Not many Scotland fans here yet, most will arrive tonight or tomorrow.

Chilling just now but off for a tapas lunch and some sightseeing soon.

Jealous.

Spoiler

Even though you're a Paisley scumbag.

Enjoy the win.

[2426255]

1 hour ago, Virtual Insanity said:

They don't even need to win, a draw is enough. 

Spain could lose in Norway assuming they beat us and still comfortably qualify which obviously doesn't help us. They only need to win one of their games against Scotland and Norway to set them up for qualification with Cyprus (a) and Georgia (h) their final two games. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by 2426255

[Virtual Insanity]

28 minutes ago, 2426255 said:

Spain could lose in Norway assuming they beat us and still comfortably qualify which obviously doesn't help us. They only need to win one of their games against Scotland and Norway to set them up for qualification with Cyprus (a) and Georgia (h) their final two games. 

Yeah I do think the "Spain will be desperate to win the group" narrative is a bit overdone, they will want to win it but I think if they beat us, especially by a couple, they'll be feeling pretty relaxed going to Norway. 

[Donathan]

2 minutes ago, Virtual Insanity said:

Yeah I do think the "Spain will be desperate to win the group" narrative is a bit overdone, they will want to win it but I think if they beat us, especially by a couple, they'll be feeling pretty relaxed going to Norway. 

The seeding pots for the finals are based on records in the qualifying group. If Spain win the group they have a 50/50 chance to be in pot 1 and cannot fall below pot 2. If they come 2nd they’ve only got a 1/10 chance of pot 2, 6/10 chance of pot 3 and 3/10 chance of pot 4. They’ll absolutely be desperate to win the group for the same reason that I’m desperate for Scotland to win the group.