Spain

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

On 13/06/2023 at 22:59, Londonwell said:

They did beat a decent Norway team reasonably comfortably 3-0 in the game before Hampden. It would be a major surprise Spain finishing 3rd and I prefer to look at the Hampden game as our tactics and performance levels beating a good if not great Spain side. 

The score looked comfortable, but the performance didn't merit it.  How Norway didn't score a couple against Spain, and a few against Georgia still mystifies me.  I watched the Spain game and had a real panic that Norway would win that.

Spain play the same way they have for the last couple of decades, but their current players are miles off the 2008-2012 sides.  Obviously some superb players, particularly young ones, but they seem to be similar to Italy, Germany, Netherlands, and Belgium in that their sides are now full of fairly inexperienced players who aren't key to Champions League and major league winning sides.

I could have named 8-9 of the starting XI of each of those sides in the 2010s, and I've absolutely no idea who most of them are right now.  That's quite distinct from sides like England and France (and to some extent, Portugal) who have very strong sides with players everyone can name.

[Londonwell]

24 minutes ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said:

The score looked comfortable, but the performance didn't merit it.  How Norway didn't score a couple against Spain, and a few against Georgia still mystifies me.  I watched the Spain game and had a real panic that Norway would win that.

Spain play the same way they have for the last couple of decades, but their current players are miles off the 2008-2012 sides.  Obviously some superb players, particularly young ones, but they seem to be similar to Italy, Germany, Netherlands, and Belgium in that their sides are now full of fairly inexperienced players who aren't key to Champions League and major league winning sides.

I could have named 8-9 of the starting XI of each of those sides in the 2010s, and I've absolutely no idea who most of them are right now.  That's quite distinct from sides like England and France (and to some extent, Portugal) who have very strong sides with players everyone can name.

I watched the game as well. Yes Norway caused some problems and yes Spain are there to be got at. They still ran out clear winners by the end of the game though.

I agree and it seems fairly obvious that Spain aren’t the team that they were but it would still be a huge surprise if they don’t finish top 2. They did just win the Nations League as well.

[MarkoRaj]

On 18/06/2023 at 12:31, Donathan said:

A 37 year old winger starting at right back isn't exactly a great sign.

 

From the position we are in now I'd be disappointed if we don't win the group outright.

Mental that you'd be disappointed with qualification in any way. We aren't France. 

We could win every game remaining bar Spain away (which would be odds on) and still finish second.

[Donathan]

1 hour ago, MarkoRaj said:

Mental that you'd be disappointed with qualification in any way. We aren't France. 

We could win every game remaining bar Spain away (which would be odds on) and still finish second.

Winning the group guarantees you at worst pot 2 for the finals draw (and 50/50 chance of pot 1)

 

Second place is highly likely to be in pot 3, small risk of pot 4 and tiny chance of pot 2.

 

From our current position we need to be thinking of topping the group.

[Merkie84]

8 hours ago, Donathan said:

Why do you "fear" that? Spain dropping points is good for Scotland at this stage.

Because a positive result against Spain might bring Norway back into the running or have Georgia breathing down our neck. 
 

Spain beating everyone (apart from us) is good for us. 
 

I also fear Cyprus might gain a few points, hopefully not against us!

[Gordon EF]

1 minute ago, Merkie84 said:

Because a positive result against Spain might bring Norway back into the running or have Georgia breathing down our neck. 
 

Spain beating everyone (apart from us) is good for us. 
 

I also fear Cyprus might gain a few points, hopefully not against us!

I don't think folk are quite appreciating what a commanding position we're in right now.

Let's make some assumptions -

1. Everyone beats Cyprus and they end up on 0 points.
2. We lose in Spain.
3. Every other result not involving us goes against us (Spain beat Georgia twice, Norway beat Spain and Georgia in Oslo).

That would leave the group looking like this...

1. Spain - 18 points

2. Norway - 13 points

3. Scotland - 12 points

4. Georgia - 7 points

5. Cyprus - 0 points

With three games left to play (all involving Scotland): Georgia (H), Georgia (A), Norway (H)

In that scenario there are still so many ways we qualify.

1. A win vs Norway is good enough on it's own
2. A draw vs Norway and only 1 point from two games against Georgia would be enough.
3. A defeat against Norway and we'd likely need 6 points vs Georgia (4 if Norway beat us by 1 goal and we have a better goal difference).

Even if Norway manage to beat Spain, Georgia, and Cyprus twice, we'd still be more likely to qualify than them.

[Gordon EF]

Even looking the other way and viewing Georgia as the main threat. Let's say they beat Cyprus at home, Norway in Oslo, and Spain at home, that gives them 13 points. As long as we beat Cyprus, all we need to to is better Georgia in the head-to-head, or draw with them head-to-head and get a positive result at home to Norway, plus have a better goal difference.

If Spain tank everyone, it's hugely unlikely that either Norway or Georgia can catch us.

If Spain bleed points to Norway or Georgia you're still looking at these two having to pull off a great run of results and then beat us in head-to-heads.

I really don't think Spain completely bottling it to the point where Norway and Georgia can finish top 2 is worth considering. It would be one of the most spectacularly unlikely endings to a qualifying group ever.

[Merkie84]

Great analysis. 
 

Being trying to get my head round all the permutations so thanks for clearing it up. 
 

Just win Scotland FFS! 

[2426255]

8 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

Even looking the other way and viewing Georgia as the main threat. Let's say they beat Cyprus at home, Norway in Oslo, and Spain at home, that gives them 13 points. As long as we beat Cyprus, all we need to to is better Georgia in the head-to-head, or draw with them head-to-head and get a positive result at home to Norway, plus have a better goal difference.

If Spain tank everyone, it's hugely unlikely that either Norway or Georgia can catch us.

If Spain bleed points to Norway or Georgia you're still looking at these two having to pull off a great run of results and then beat us in head-to-heads.

I really don't think Spain completely bottling it to the point where Norway and Georgia can finish top 2 is worth considering. It would be one of the most spectacularly unlikely endings to a qualifying group ever.

It's a good analysis. I checked it quite thoroughly. It's important we don't lose to Georgia tonight.   

Edited June 20, 2023 by 2426255

[velo army]

We don't have to worry about Spain at all I think. The psychology of this Scotland team is very different to previous sides. They'll be focussed on each game and not giving a single toss about others in the group.

It feels different now somehow, whereas before we'd be getting our scientific calculators to figure out what we needed others to do, I now think we'll beat everyone. 

I don't see any real evidence supporting the idea Spain will beat us at home. We should have won by more at Hampden. We'll take another three points back from there too.

[2426255]

4 minutes ago, velo army said:

We don't have to worry about Spain at all I think. The psychology of this Scotland team is very different to previous sides. They'll be focussed on each game and not giving a single toss about others in the group.

It feels different now somehow, whereas before we'd be getting our scientific calculators to figure out what we needed others to do, I now think we'll beat everyone. 

I don't see any real evidence supporting the idea Spain will beat us at home. We should have won by more at Hampden. We'll take another three points back from there too.

hmm, not sure if you're being serious with this one. Hopefully not.

[Donathan]

4 minutes ago, velo army said:

We don't have to worry about Spain at all I think. The psychology of this Scotland team is very different to previous sides. They'll be focussed on each game and not giving a single toss about others in the group.

It feels different now somehow, whereas before we'd be getting our scientific calculators to figure out what we needed others to do, I now think we'll beat everyone. 

I don't see any real evidence supporting the idea Spain will beat us at home. We should have won by more at Hampden. We'll take another three points back from there too.

IMO we have every chance to beat Georgia home and Cyprus away and take four points from Norway home and Georgia away. That would give us 19 and the only way Spain could get above us would be to win all their remaining games. 

[Pie Of The Month]

On 12/06/2023 at 09:10, Pie Of The Month said:

The 120 day deadline for the Spanish FA informing UEFA and the SFA of the venue is this Thursday. Whether they will abide by the deadline remains to be seen.

 

Local media reporting today it's going to be in La Cartuja, the stadium Celtic played the UEFA Cup final in. 57k capacity. 

https://www.eldesmarque.com/futbol/seleccion-espanola/20230620/espana-jugara-contra-escocia-en-la-cartuja_300017163.html

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, Pie Of The Month said:

Local media reporting today it's going to be in La Cartuja, the stadium Celtic played the UEFA Cup final in. 57k capacity. 

https://www.eldesmarque.com/futbol/seleccion-espanola/20230620/espana-jugara-contra-escocia-en-la-cartuja_300017163.html

Went there for Spain v Sweden in the Euros, walk from the centre's about 2-3 miles, decent stadium but out in the sticks and with a running track. I left the 0-0 draw a bit early and got a bus no problem, don't know what it's like busy.

[SouthLanarkshireWhite]

22 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Went there for Spain v Sweden in the Euros, walk from the centre's about 2-3 miles, decent stadium but out in the sticks and with a running track. I left the 0-0 draw a bit early and got a bus no problem, don't know what it's like busy.

They like picking Seville for the heat in these games. Was there in April and it was 35 degrees plus. Fab city for a short break too.

[Jacky1990]

4 hours ago, Donathan said:

IMO we have every chance to beat Georgia home and Cyprus away and take four points from Norway home and Georgia away. That would give us 19 and the only way Spain could get above us would be to win all their remaining games. 

Some laugh that Spain will be looking at our games hoping we drop points. 

[deadasdillinger]

What started out as me and my wee boy talking of going to Spain for his first ever away game, turned in to taking my newly Scotland daft nephew, and now my brother in law and father in law who doesn't even normally follow football. 5 of us all booked up for Seville this morning. Absolutely buzzing!

[ClydeTon]

Do we get to claim Unofficial Nations League winners if when we beat Spain?

Edited June 21, 2023 by ClydeTon

[deadasdillinger]

1 minute ago, ClydeTon said:

Do we get to claim Unofficial Nations League winners if we beat Spain?

What's this "if" business?

[2426255]

3 minutes ago, deadasdillinger said:

What started out as me and my wee boy talking of going to Spain for his first ever away game, turned in to taking my newly Scotland daft nephew, and now my brother in law and father in law who doesn't even normally follow football. 5 of us all booked up for Seville this morning. Absolutely buzzing!

Glory hunters then?