Jump to content

US Presidential Election 2024


scottsdad

Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, houston_bud said:

It's actually quite sad. Had he announced last year that he wasn't going to run again and gone out gracefully, then he'd have been remembered for his years of public service, being vice president in a very strong and popular white house, beating Trump and getting through a lot of positive legislation. Now, he's becoming a bit of a joke figure who could end up being remembered as the guy who enabled a second Trump term.

I think it's still early enough that he can leave with grace.

The last time I thought a US presidential election campaign was done was when the candidate was caught on a hot mic admitting to sexually assaulting multiple women, so what do I know.

2 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

The thing that puzzles me in all of this is the position of the Biden family.  Whilst I would expect US Government officials and spokespersons to publicly sandbag their President, is the Biden family so consumed by ego, vanity and cussedness that they are prepared to have the senior member of the clan driven to a potentially humiliating end to his Presidency, and at what cost to his failing health ?

We don't know what's going on in private. It would be pretty awful if any of his family gave him anything less than total support in public.

27 minutes ago, houston_bud said:

Not the most pressing thing, but Biden needs to lay off the botox, he's starting to look like Gary Oldman's character in Hannibal.

Most American politicians look like serial killers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

The thing that puzzles me in all of this is the position of the Biden family.  Whilst I would expect US Government officials and spokespersons to publicly sandbag their President, is the Biden family so consumed by ego, vanity and cussedness that they are prepared to have the senior member of the clan driven to a potentially humiliating end to his Presidency, and at what cost to his failing health ?

I'd like to think they are telling him in private to pack it in, but I doubt it. He is embarassing himself on the global stage and it's becoming painful. Whatabouttery regarding Trump's mental decline simply isn't a mitigation - he's in better condition than Biden and that's all that matters. 

The position here can be salvaged, but there will be a point where it cannot be even if Biden is removed, and I suspect Biden will tough it out beyond that point. The decision, IMO, needs to be taken away from him and he needs forcibly removed. 

Edited by Michael W
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The nearest analogue for a withdrawal would be LBJ on March 31st, 1968, which was three and a half months before any Biden withdrawal might occur, which is literally why there is such confusion and debate about how it might proceed.

7 hours ago, GordonS said:

I think it's still early enough that he can leave with grace.

The last time I thought a US presidential election campaign was done was when the candidate was caught on a hot mic admitting to sexually assaulting multiple women, so what do I know.

We don't know what's going on in private. It would be pretty awful if any of his family gave him anything less than total support in public.

Most American politicians look like serial killers.

Yes and no. It can be graceful, but the Democratic Party will be in a shambles (as it is currently, to be fair) and he will shoulder blame for waiting so long.

As for in private, that’s my suspicion. No matter what he’s being told in private, it he’s not willing to….

I think back to his interview where he couched himself as the bulwark against Trump, and I think he’s now writing checks his body can’t cash.

Most ARE serial killers.

 

On the whole, there’s a couple of interesting thoughts here too. IF Biden drops out, and the Democrats pick a candidate that doesn’t explode headlines, what will happen with Trump and his gaffes? Will the same ruler be applied, or will the press move on to other things? Or will whomever the D’s select be the chew toy de jure for the press…possibly to the detriment or advantage of said candidate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another interesting question, whither the 25th (Amendment). Since Biden seems to now be showing absolutely clear decline, and significantly over the past two weeks or so, how might this play out…legally and logistically. Also, with Trump showing some impairment already, there’s a very real chance that we get to see the 25th in action here at some point.

Biden - 25th invoked pre-election…what happens to his position on the ballot? One might assume it would be similar to a candidate dying before the election, which is generally the party may nominate a replacement. But what if there is concern or lawsuit that the issue might be temporary…chaos.

Biden - 25th invoked after the election but before inauguration. That’s a really interesting one, see above on temporary vs permanent.

Biden or Trump - 25th invoked after the election. Seems a slam dunk for one, if not both, to have this occur…except with Trump there’s a group of sociopaths with a vested interest in preventing its use, unless their VP pick is similarly malleable. The support around Biden seems relatively less power hungry, but time will tell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Another interesting question, whither the 25th (Amendment). Since Biden seems to now be showing absolutely clear decline, and significantly over the past two weeks or so, how might this play out…legally and logistically. Also, with Trump showing some impairment already, there’s a very real chance that we get to see the 25th in action here at some point.

Biden - 25th invoked pre-election…what happens to his position on the ballot? One might assume it would be similar to a candidate dying before the election, which is generally the party may nominate a replacement. But what if there is concern or lawsuit that the issue might be temporary…chaos.

Biden - 25th invoked after the election but before inauguration. That’s a really interesting one, see above on temporary vs permanent.

Biden or Trump - 25th invoked after the election. Seems a slam dunk for one, if not both, to have this occur…except with Trump there’s a group of sociopaths with a vested interest in preventing its use, unless their VP pick is similarly malleable. The support around Biden seems relatively less power hungry, but time will tell.

Watching West Wing for the first time - currently through season 2 | Page 2  | Movie/TV Board

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TxRover said:

The nearest analogue for a withdrawal would be LBJ on March 31st, 1968, which was three and a half months before any Biden withdrawal might occur, which is literally why there is such confusion and debate about how it might proceed.

Yes and no. It can be graceful, but the Democratic Party will be in a shambles (as it is currently, to be fair) and he will shoulder blame for waiting so long.

As for in private, that’s my suspicion. No matter what he’s being told in private, it he’s not willing to….

I think back to his interview where he couched himself as the bulwark against Trump, and I think he’s now writing checks his body can’t cash.

Most ARE serial killers.

 

On the whole, there’s a couple of interesting thoughts here too. IF Biden drops out, and the Democrats pick a candidate that doesn’t explode headlines, what will happen with Trump and his gaffes? Will the same ruler be applied, or will the press move on to other things? Or will whomever the D’s select be the chew toy de jure for the press…possibly to the detriment or advantage of said candidate.

Even with... everything, Biden is polling only slightly behind Trump. Until recently it was nip and tuck between them, now Trump has a lead of just 2-3 points.

I think there's a hard ceiling on Trump's potential vote, and if the Democrats can find someone that can compete in the rustbelt so they don't have a repeat of the 2016 when they won by 3 million votes but lost the electoral college, they'll win. I've no idea who can do that though, which is a damning indictment on the party.

Biden needs to go with enough time for the party to have the DNC at the end of August as a coronation, so it needs to happen now. If he survives beyond the DNC he'll surely have to go the distance.

Absolutely wild that it's in Chicago, only the second time either party has had their convention there since 1968 despite it being on of the most popular locations before then. It's almost like something happened to put them off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Even with... everything, Biden is polling only slightly behind Trump. Until recently it was nip and tuck between them, now Trump has a lead of just 2-3 points.

I think there's a hard ceiling on Trump's potential vote, and if the Democrats can find someone that can compete in the rustbelt so they don't have a repeat of the 2016 when they won by 3 million votes but lost the electoral college, they'll win. I've no idea who can do that though, which is a damning indictment on the party.

Biden needs to go with enough time for the party to have the DNC at the end of August as a coronation, so it needs to happen now. If he survives beyond the DNC he'll surely have to go the distance.

Absolutely wild that it's in Chicago, only the second time either party has had their convention there since 1968 despite it being on of the most popular locations before then. It's almost like something happened to put them off.

The only important polls are the ones from the swing states and he’s more than 2-3% behind in these.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A friend in NYC telling me he's heard through Dem Party sources that Michelle Obama is being encouraged to 'throw her hat into the ring' should Biden step aside. Dont think she will though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

The only important polls are the ones from the swing states and he’s more than 2-3% behind in these.

Using the latest state average polls from 538, looking at states the Democrats are defending by order of how marginal they were (Midwest seats in italics):

Georgia: Trump +4.8

Arizona: Trump +4.1

Wisconsin: Trump +1

Pennsylvania: Trump +2.9

Nevada: Trump +4.4

Michigan: Trump +0.2

Minnesota: Biden +1.5

The Democrats can lose Georgia, Arizona and Nevada and still win, 270-268. Even with the trainwreck of Biden's campaign he's still no more than 3 points behind Trump in states they need to win, which is nothing. States like Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and even the likes of North Carolina are still well within reach for the Democrats.

Big caveat that a lot of state polls are pretty poor and have small sample sizes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 09/02/2024 at 22:09, scottsdad said:

Cannot wait for the Biden v Trump debate.

Two sundowners not even sure why they are there. Trump thinking Biden is Obama. Biden thinking he is JFK.

Looking back, I called this ages ango.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...