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Germany 2024


invergowrie arab

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6 hours ago, deadasdillinger said:

Probably never be topped as a campaign, ever. Played to our seeding twice against Cyprus while smoking cigars and wearing slippers. No Georgian banana skins this time. A simply incredible late comeback vs Norway away. Slapped the Spanish about at at Hampden and left them crying about grass length. Qualification done 6 games in. 2 games where we can kick back and relax. It defies belief.

No banana skins? True, but plenty of water skiing. 

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We global pot projections:

 

Pot 1: Germany, Portugal, France, Belgium, Spain, Hungary

Pot 2: England, Denmark, Albania, Turkey, Switzerland, SCOTLAND

Pot 3: Austria, Netherlands, Serbia, Italy, Croatia, Czech Republic

Pot 4: Slovenia, Slovakia, Israel, playoff winners x3

 

From pot 1 I’d fancy a crack at any of hosts Germany, Belgium or Hungary. Hungary are the weakest on paper but have a very well organised team. Germany have been relatively weak for five years now and Belgium’s golden era is over. After that my next choice would be France. If we can’t get a winnable game then I’d rather at least play someone that will also beat the other teams easily. I know we beat Spain at Hampden but I don’t fancy playing them or Portugal at a neutral venue.

 

Pot 3 - Boring as they’re all recent opponents but it’s really got to be one of Austria, Serbia or Czech Republic. I think I’d rather play Serbia because the other two will almost feel like an away game being countries that border Germany. Having said that there’s a strong argument that it’s better to play Czech Republic and be the team seeking revenge, whereas Austria and Serbia want revenge on us. Italy, Croatia and Netherlands are all very strong teams that we’d be hoping to avoid.

 

Pot 4 - After playing Israel 7 times between autumn 2018 and autumn 2021, we’ve not played them for a couple of years. A reunion might be in our best interests because Slovenia have Benjamin Sesko and he gives me the fear in the same way Patrik Schick did at the last euros. Slovakia would also be a decent draw and so would the league C playoff winners (Greece most likely). You probably want to avoid the other two playoff winners (league A likely Poland or Wales, league B could be a reunion with Ukraine) 

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I think Wales will qualify over Croatia.

I know we global only has them at 33% but they just need to beat Armenia away and an already through Turkey at home

I think they have enough momentum to see themselves over the line

Would definitely want them as a pot 3 side

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🎶 we've got Keiren Tierneeey,

and Billy Gilmour toooo.

Robbo is our captain,

he leads the boys in bluuuue.

From Hampden down to Wembly

we'll travel all the waaaaay.

And with Steve Clarke as the gaffer......

We're off to Germanaaaaay...

Allez,Allez,Allez...Allez,Allez,Allez🎶

 

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1 hour ago, MarkoRaj said:

Netherlands are only estimated pot 3 because they have a tricky tie against Greece tonight, however if they win that they will be almost guaranteed 18 points which will surely be enough for pot 2

Sure, but if we beat Georgia so will we. Then we've got Norway for a 1 or 3 point bonus.

I think (?) if we win our last two, there's no team that could beat us to the last pot2 berth.

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2 hours ago, MarkoRaj said:

Don't want the hosts - home crowd will give them a boost plus it will be harder to get tickets 

And the tickets for the opening game are as ridiculously expensive as the semis, and will be in Munich when most of us will be based in the North.

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51 minutes ago, ArabFC said:

Sure, but if we beat Georgia so will we. Then we've got Norway for a 1 or 3 point bonus.

I think (?) if we win our last two, there's no team that could beat us to the last pot2 berth.

Yeh I want us to get pot 2.

There were a few posters in other threads saying it was much of a muchness finishing pot 2 or 3 but I expect that by the end pot 2 will look significantly stronger 

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3 hours ago, MarkoRaj said:

Netherlands are only estimated pot 3 because they have a tricky tie against Greece tonight, however if they win that they will be almost guaranteed 18 points which will surely be enough for pot 2


There's only one runner-up spot for Pot 2, and 18 points necessarily that likely to be enough. We would beat that with a win and a draw in our final two games and Austria would beat it with two wins against the bottom two sides in their group.

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19 minutes ago, craigkillie said:


There's only one runner-up spot for Pot 2, and 18 points necessarily that likely to be enough. We would beat that with a win and a draw in our final two games and Austria would beat it with two wins against the bottom two sides in their group.

Ah that's right. I keep forgetting there are 10 groups in qualifying but only 6 in the actual euros

So it's

Pot 1. Germany/top 5 group winners

Pot 2. Bottom 5 group winners/top 1 runner up (hopefully us)

Pot 3. Next 6 runners up

Pot 4. Last 3 runner up diddies and 3 play off diddies

Had to get that right in my head

So assuming we are in pot 2 only way to jump from pot 3 to pot 2 is to come top of the group. Not really likely given the dominance of the sides that top the group.

Play off diddies might have a couple of decent sides in there tbh

 

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