FitbaSupporter Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, Fuctifano said: Dundee Utd win: 75/25 Utd Draw: 55/45 Raith Raith win: 81/19 Raith Cheers. Drooling over that 81 figure… 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 25 minutes ago, jagsfan57 said: If DU need 20 points they are screwed as they only have 6 games left. The obvious reality of Saturday’s game is that DU need to win to keep the destination of the title in their own hands. Any other result means that Raith Rovers have it to win/throw away. He's obviously using a win as 3 points and a defeat for the opponent as another 3 points hence winner on Saturday getting 6 points. As I said, what a complicated way to look at it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, diegomarahenry said: I still think we will avoid 9th or 10th place and currently the best we can hope for is being mathematically safe with 2-3 games to go. A disappointing start, middle and end to the season. Being safe with games left would be an excellent end to the season. It removes the incredibly common excuse that the reason Ayr have been utterly lackadaisical during the transfer window is because of end-of-season exhaustion (never mind that Hopkin, Duffy and Bullen all unceremoniously fucked off on holiday at the first opportunity). Give the youngsters a run out, get every single target on a PCA and get players who are surplus to requirements out the door immediately. What will actually happen of course is that Ayr will release Ahkeem Rose from his contract the day after they finish the season in ninth, he will immediately sign for Accies, and will score seven goals in the playoffs. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shandon Par Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Starting to look like this season has just been a classic McPake trolling exercise, aimed at causing Raith maximum distress at the end of the season. Be funny to see us mimic Airdrie last season and win the playoffs after finishing about 20 points adrift of the leaders. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 3 hours ago, jagsfan57 said: If DU need 20 points they are screwed as they only have 6 games left. The obvious reality of Saturday’s game is that DU need to win to keep the destination of the title in their own hands. Any other result means that Raith Rovers have it to win/throw away. 20 points of DU gaining OR Raith losing. 3 hours ago, Nightmare said: Not only is it unnecessarily complicated, but it’s also wrong. Do tell. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 28 minutes ago, TxRover said: 20 points of DU gaining OR Raith losing. Do tell. Wait, so Raith dropping points equates to United “gaining” them? Apologies then, it’s not wrong. It’s just an utterly batshit way to look at things. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 3 minutes ago, Nightmare said: Wait, so Raith dropping points equates to United “gaining” them? Apologies then, it’s not wrong. It’s just an utterly batshit way to look at things. It’s a U.S. concept called “magic number”, that’s normally applied to games won/lost versus a completion where points are assigned for wins and loses. It still provides a simple way to judge the relative position of two teams and the results of matches…in this case, 30% of the points needed by either to clinch the title are in play here. It’s just not a concept used in UK sports, so that’s what’s making you struggle with it, which is understandable. It seemed quite strange to me at first to, but I’ve found value in it for simplifying (yea, right) the impacts of high value matches like this weekends. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
par-adise Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, TxRover said: It’s a U.S. concept Let me stop you there... 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 47 minutes ago, par-adise said: Let me stop you there... I’m not asking you to buy it… 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACAB Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 4 hours ago, TxRover said: It’s a U.S. concept Post it on Hot Dog & Lite Beer or just use age old cliches like 6 pointer so we know whit your on about. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Connolly Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 3 hours ago, par-adise said: Let me stop you there... Raith are 1/3rd wins behind following their recent bye week. This week's Rovers @ Arabs ballgame will have a huge effect on the post-season 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, ACAB said: Post it on Hot Dog & Lite Beer or just use age old cliches like 6 pointer so we know whit your on about. More likely “Nachos and Piss-water”. The cliche is “3 pointer”, the innuendo is “4 pointer”, I’m scared to check Urban Dictionary for “6 pointer”. 56 minutes ago, Mark Connolly said: Raith are 1/3rd wins behind following their recent bye week. This week's Rovers @ Arabs ballgame will have a huge effect on the post-season More accurately would be they’re “one third of a game back, with a game in hand…it’s all to play for, time to push the chips all in, gotta leave it all on the field, can’t cry if you don’t try…” 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Blue Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 A few weeks ago I was confident that we'd finish 4th and possibly catch Partick. Now we're in free fall and looking the other way. Frustrating as we'd gotten ourselves in a good position. I think United will end up seeing without and winning the league. 1. United 2. Raith 3. Partick 4. Dunfermline 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhys McCabe Hype Train Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Intrigued to know how this weekend’s stramash has affected the probabilities. Dundee Utd now overwhelming favourites for the league. Dunfermline maybe now just streaking it for 4th and Inverness consigned to 9th? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 (edited) 8 hours ago, Rhys McCabe Hype Train said: Intrigued to know how this weekend’s stramash has affected the probabilities. Dundee Utd now overwhelming favourites for the league. Dunfermline maybe now just streaking it for 4th and Inverness consigned to 9th? That's DU about 75% to win the league, if I remember @Fuctifano's numbers. DU control their own fate, but can't draw or lose without giving Raith a chance...even one draw would allow Raith the opportunity to win out and take it. DU are assured third or better. Raith are assured fifth or better, and are almost a lock for at least the playoffs with a +8 GD on a Morton side that can just catch them with all wins and no Raith points. Partick are now clear of the relegation playoff zone, as ICT can no longer overtake them. Pars, Morton, Airdrie, Ayr and Queen's Park could all probably end up nearly anywhere between 4-8, but Queen's are nervously holding onto that. ICT are in a genuine spot of of bother, with Arbroath having almost no hope to catch anyone except, perhaps, ICT...but it would be the longest of longshots. Falkirk have assured promotion, so the trapdoor playoff competition will be three of the Accies, Alloa, Cove and Morton Montrose, which might be enough of a challenge for our ninth place team. At the top, it certainly looks like St. Johnstone or Ross County, but the Don's and Motherwell are still in with a shot. Any of those four are beatable on the right day, but it's still a tall ask to do it over two matches, after a brutal series of matches to see who plays them. Edited March 31 by TxRover 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madton Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 hours ago, TxRover said: That's DU about 75% to win the league, if I remember @Fuctifano's numbers. DU control their own fate, but can't draw or lose without giving Raith a chance...even one draw would allow Raith the opportunity to win out and take it. DU are assured third or better. Raith are assured fifth or better, and are almost a lock for at least the playoffs with a +8 GD on a Morton side that can just catch them with all wins and no Raith points. Partick are now clear of the relegation playoff zone, as ICT can no longer overtake them. Pars, Morton, Airdrie, Ayr and Queen's Park could all probably end up nearly anywhere between 4-8, but Queen's are nervously holding onto that. ICT are in a genuine spot of of bother, with Arbroath having almost no hope to catch anyone except, perhaps, ICT...but it would be the longest of longshots. Falkirk have assured promotion, so the trapdoor playoff competition will be three of the Accies, Alloa, Cove and Morton...which might be enough of a challenge for our ninth place team. At the top, it certainly looks like St. Johnstone or Ross County, but the Don's and Motherwell are still in with a shot. Any of those four are beatable on the right day, but it's still a tall ask to do it over two matches, after a brutal series of matches to see who plays them. Alloa Accies, Cove and who???? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranaldo Bairn Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 38 minutes ago, madton said: Alloa Accies, Cove and who???? He obviously meant Montrose. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, madton said: Alloa Accies, Cove and who???? I’ll take it, I mistyped Montrose. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoBNob Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 16 hours ago, Rhys McCabe Hype Train said: Intrigued to know how this weekend’s stramash has affected the probabilities. Dundee Utd now overwhelming favourites for the league. Dunfermline maybe now just streaking it for 4th and Inverness consigned to 9th? I think Morton are still favourites for 4th, their superior goal difference could prove really pivotal. Airdrie then have a better chance than Dunfermline but from what your fans have been saying you have a few injuries? Queens Park aren't out of it but they could probably do with converting a few of there draws into wins. It's hard to get a grip on Ayr, whenever I pop into there thread everyone's moaning about the team, then they win. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagsfan57 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Think our points gap is a bit false as Morton and Airdrie have games in hand. We are also down to the bare bones of the squad - 7 players out yesterday due to injury. A few of those won’t be back this season. We won yesterday due ICT’s inability to create much, although we have shored up defensively in recent weeks. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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