GTee Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 4 hours ago, Sonam said: Yes, that's right. I'm pretty much undecided on independence. I know people like me get shouted down from both sides on here, but sometimes geniually not knowing is a positive thing. Despite her religious views, Kate Forbes is a highly competent politician who genuinely cares. I hear that even from staunch unionists in the Highlands. Politicians that are like that stand out. Charles Kennedy in the Highlands was another who got my vote at the time because he was sincere. I genuinely believe that long term, independence can be a very positive thing. Particularly if the party governing England at the time of spilt are reasonable. Short term, I do feel it may hurt though I don't know either way if I'm honest as I am not an educated economist who looks at the issue with a balanced viewpoint. I thought Salmond & Sturgeon during most of their reigns were actually very accomplished politicians which helped a lot. They both fell spectacularly though and the SNP have to learn from this and ensure that such a fall from grace never happens again. I have no view yet how Swiney will do, but hope he gets the SNP back on their feet. I hope that Labour in government & Tories in opposition improve too. England deserves better and Scotland and the SNP will do better too with stronger parties in power than what has passed. Even Sunak at least was a big improvement over Boris Johnson. So the Tories too have improved since he has been in power. Boris was awful. Not a dig, but looks like you will be voting for a personality. Doubt we'll see it again, but anyone voting for Independence based on Salmond, Sturgeon, Swinney or the SNP, doesn't 'get it'. That's only my opinion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Binos Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 3 minutes ago, GTee said: Not a dig, but looks like you will be voting for a personality. Doubt we'll see it again, but anyone voting for Independence based on Salmond, Sturgeon, Swinney or the SNP, doesn't 'get it'. That's only my opinion. Get what 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Binos Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 2 hours ago, Flybhoy said: Does anyone have a link as to the odds for individual constituencies or polls for them, genuinely curious as to whether Labour or the SNP are best placed to beat the Tories in the constituencies in my area. If its stirling i would say it's labour unfortunately No stats just would imagine that's going to be the case 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 (edited) 10 hours ago, Binos said: If its stirling i would say it's labour unfortunately No stats just would imagine that's going to be the case Very much not. At the last election the SNP won that seat with over 50% of the vote and Labour were third with just 8%. It's a straight SNP-Tory fight with the new constituency boundaries bringing in Strathallan, helping the Tories. If voters don't realise that and think they need to vote Labour to keep the Tories out, they could well let the Tories in. Edited May 31 by GordonS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 12 hours ago, Flybhoy said: Does anyone have a link as to the odds for individual constituencies or polls for them, genuinely curious as to whether Labour or the SNP are best placed to beat the Tories in the constituencies in my area. Betting odds can be pretty inaccurate for elections because they're influenced by where money is going and what the bookie feels they need to offer to make a profit, and there's a lot of stupid money bet on elections. Individual constituency polls are very rare in elections and there have only been 5 so far in 2024, none in Scotland. A few are bound to come along but there were none in Scotland for the last general election either. They only tend to be done for very interesting seats or when someone rich wants to fund them, like offshore billionaire Lord Ashcroft. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#Constituency_polling Best indication is to look at the result in 2019 and if there was a clear top two, they're very likely to be the top two again. But remember that the boundaries have changed and that makes a big difference in some places. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 (edited) 13 hours ago, Flybhoy said: Does anyone have a link as to the odds for individual constituencies or polls for them, genuinely curious as to whether Labour or the SNP are best placed to beat the Tories in the constituencies in my area. If you're still in Clacks, something I saw recently gave John Nicolson about a 60% chance of keeping his seat, with the Labour candidate at roughly 40%. The Tory was virtually nowhere. Can't remember where that was though. Edit: never mind, found it. The boundary change really seems to have fucked over the Tories, going by their forecast for the old seat! I think we'll go Labour, personally. If this area voted Tory to get rid of the SNP in 2017, I can't see there not being a Labour win now when there's anti-SNP sentiment AND folk finally have a chance to celebrate the Conservatives' downfall. Edit 2: basically, don't worry about it and vote for whichever you fancy. I'm sure you've noticed the absence of the traditional "ONLY THE CONSERVATIVES CAN BEAT THE SNP HERE" literature being handed out lately - they're getting f**k all from Alloa and Grangemouth. Edited May 31 by BFTD 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JS_FFC Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 Iain Dale punted by the conservatives just a couple of days after quitting his media gigs to run for them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eez-eh Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 27 minutes ago, BFTD said: If you're still in Clacks, something I saw recently gave John Nicolson about a 60% chance of keeping his seat, with the Labour candidate at roughly 40%. The Tory was virtually nowhere. Can't remember where that was though. Edit: never mind, found it. The boundary change really seems to have fucked over the Tories, going by their forecast for the old seat! I think we'll go Labour, personally. If this area voted Tory to get rid of the SNP in 2017, I can't see there not being a Labour win now when there's anti-SNP sentiment AND folk finally have a chance to celebrate the Conservatives' downfall. If that’s electoral calculus they’re also predicting Labour to get nearly 500 seats and the Tories less than 100. I’d take it with a pinch of salt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 4 minutes ago, eez-eh said: If that’s electoral calculus they’re also predicting Labour to get nearly 500 seats and the Tories less than 100. I’d take it with a pinch of salt. Aye, I was surprised that they think this is an SNP HOLD, but we can be pretty sure it's not a CONSERVATIVE WIN. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 2 hours ago, BFTD said: If you're still in Clacks, something I saw recently gave John Nicolson about a 60% chance of keeping his seat, with the Labour candidate at roughly 40%. The Tory was virtually nowhere. Can't remember where that was though. Edit: never mind, found it. The boundary change really seems to have fucked over the Tories, going by their forecast for the old seat! I think we'll go Labour, personally. If this area voted Tory to get rid of the SNP in 2017, I can't see there not being a Labour win now when there's anti-SNP sentiment AND folk finally have a chance to celebrate the Conservatives' downfall. Edit 2: basically, don't worry about it and vote for whichever you fancy. I'm sure you've noticed the absence of the traditional "ONLY THE CONSERVATIVES CAN BEAT THE SNP HERE" literature being handed out lately - they're getting f**k all from Alloa and Grangemouth. The maths of that website are questionable enough, but even worse for Scottish seats because they extrapolate swings from UK polling, not Scottish polling. The site also doesn't account for tactical voting, which gets bigger at every election. But I wouldn't expect to see so many Labour votes being leant to the Tories as before. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazzyStar Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 15 hours ago, scottsdad said: Cock and balls party please Alba? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VictorOnopko Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 Apparently Starmer was up here in Scotchland today and made a speech in Greenock in which he stated how pleased he was to be in Glasgow. Make of that what you will. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawpar Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 TBF Can't be any worse than the tories or labour - 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JS_FFC Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 I’ll have some of that industrial strength hopium please Camilla 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 15 minutes ago, JS_FFC said: I’ll have some of that industrial strength hopium please Camilla Whisper it indeed, because if you say it out loud they’ll send round the guys with the straitjacket. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Binos Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 7 hours ago, GordonS said: Very much not. At the last election the SNP won that seat with over 50% of the vote and Labour were third with just 8%. It's a straight SNP-Tory fight with the new constituency boundaries bringing in Strathallan, helping the Tories. If voters don't realise that and think they need to vote Labour to keep the Tories out, they could well let the Tories in. Who decides the boundary changes any clue 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 8 hours ago, JS_FFC said: Iain Dale punted by the conservatives just a couple of days after quitting his media gigs to run for them. His tear stained goodbyes and tributes from colleagues before he presumably asks for the job he resigned from 2 days ago back have been a particular highlight of the campaign so far. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boo Khaki Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 6 hours ago, VictorOnopko said: Apparently Starmer was up here in Scotchland today and made a speech in Greenock in which he stated how pleased he was to be in Glasgow. Make of that what you will. Well everything West of Harthill is weegie -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 35 minutes ago, sparky88 said: His tear stained goodbyes and tributes from colleagues before he presumably asks for the job he resigned from 2 days ago back have been a particular highlight of the campaign so far. If he's daft enough to go try and muscle in for the candidacy of a place that there's footage of him calling a bin, I reckon he's daft enough to try and pull a George Costanza and just show back up and deny ever quitting. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Steele Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 11 hours ago, JS_FFC said: Iain Dale punted by the conservatives just a couple of days after quitting his media gigs to run for them. "Eh, about that job I told you to shove up your arse..." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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