General Election 2024 Predictions

[BFTD]

11 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

If Farage becomes an MP the absolutely worst thing that can happen is other MPs referencing him.  The best tactic would be to completely ignore him.

Let’s face it he will get (even) more coverage by the MSM, no point in his fellow Parliamentarians helping out.

Wonder who he'll sit next to.

Guaranteed to be a few big splash stories about someone getting up and moving rather than having to be near him. Bonus points if it's a non-Caucasian MP so he can feed the press lines about how this is un-British behaviour.

[Granny Danger]

9 minutes ago, BFTD said:

Wonder who he'll sit next to.

Guaranteed to be a few big splash stories about someone getting up and moving rather than having to be near him. Bonus points if it's a non-Caucasian MP so he can feed the press lines about how this is un-British behaviour.

DUP.

[BFTD]

1 minute ago, Granny Danger said:

DUP.

Good Lord, looks like you're right :https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c988p1xz2qdo

[Mark Connolly]

6 hours ago, BFTD said:

Wonder who he'll sit next to.

Whoever the new Tory leader is/whoever he appoints as his shadow chancellor*

 

*Delete as appropriate

[MEADOWXI]

22 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

If Farage becomes an MP the absolutely worst thing that can happen is other MPs referencing him.  The best tactic would be to completely ignore him.

Let’s face it he will get (even) more coverage by the MSM, no point in his fellow Parliamentarians helping out.

 

15 hours ago, Mark Connolly said:

Whoever the new Tory leader is/whoever he appoints as his shadow chancellor*

 

*Delete as appropriate

If the Tories end up with less than 90 MPS, which some polls are saying, even if Reform only it 1 or 2 MPs fully expect a stormy summer and autumn.

The Tory Party will implode with infighting and a new Reformed Conservative / Conservative Reform party may emerge with Farage holding some sort of Shadow cabinet post. The infighting will be brutal.

[Fullerene]

Farage orbits the Conservative Party exerting huge gravitational forces that are ripping them apart.  However that is the way he likes it.

Crashing down to Earth, actually being part of the Conservative Party he would have far less influence on the party than he does at the moment.

[Michael W]

I don't think Farage will join/lead the Tories. The brand is wrecked and there enough of them that despise Farage to keep him out. 

There is however an increasing risk that Reform might take over much of the larger entity via defections and the Tories end up like the French Republicans. 

[Bully Wee Villa]

On 16/06/2024 at 09:35, Granny Danger said:

Is Reform really going to win seats?

I had them winning Clacton. Also thought they would win Ashfield as an independent did very well there last time and could take votes from Labour. However, said independent is only polling around 2% now following allegations of sex offences, so... Labour should win.

[Michael W]

7 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

I had them winning Clacton. Also thought they would win Ashfield as an independent did very well there last time and could take votes from Labour. However, said independent is only polling around 2% now following allegations of sex offences, so... Labour should win.

The guy that's standing is the leader of the council, who previously had a number of charges against him dropped. Are there more allegations as well now? I note he has a pending trial for fraud as well.His Ashfield Indpendents have had a number of allegations made against them too.  

This is also a seat that elected Lee Anderson. I think we can therefore conclude that it is "gone" and has little chance of being brought back. It should be levelled and have a reservoir built upon it. 

[The DA]

My considered analysis, built on everything adding up to 649.

Independents  2
Plaid Cymru     4
Greens              5
Reform              5
DUP                    7
Sinn Fein           9
SNP                  29
Lib Dems        90
Tory                 113
Labour          385

[scottsdad]

I reckon the silent Tories will come out, and a lot of folk thinking Labour have won it will stay at home. Tories to get more than 200 seats. 

Hope I am wrong! I'd love a wipe out. 

[Highlandmagar]

Love a hung parliament with SNP largest party in Scotland. The laughter at Starmer's expense would be joyous.

[ThePARadox]

I bet a treble. Farage, Galloway and Corbyn to win their constituencies at 6/1 with Paddy power. I think Corbyn is the doubtful one. 

[Highlandmagar]

52 minutes ago, ThePARadox said:

I bet a treble. Farage, Galloway and Corbyn to win their constituencies at 6/1 with Paddy power. I think Corbyn is the doubtful one. 

Latest Survation poll on that sest has Labour on 43% and Corbyn on 29%.

[Crùbag]

1 hour ago, Highlandmagar said:

Love a hung parliament with SNP largest party in Scotland. The laughter at Starmer's expense would be joyous.

 

This.

Would be best for Scotland and democracy. A counterweight to Starmer's right-wing dogwhistle Tory-continuity politics.

[JS_FFC]

Labour 428 (+231)

Conservative 98 (-278)

Lib Dems 69 (+61)

SNP 26 (-22)

Reform 2 (+2)

Greens 4 (+3)

Plaid 4 (+2)

Northern Ireland/Speaker/Other 19 (+/- 0)

 

 

Scotland:

 

SNP 26 (-22)

Labour 26 (+25)

Lib Dems 5 (+3)

 

 

Some specific predictions:

 

Tories will be wiped out in Scotland and Wales. 
 

Labour and the SNP will be dead even on seats in Scotland and within a few hundred votes of each other overall. I have both on 34% of the vote. 

The SNP will win every current Scottish Tory seat apart from Mundell’s seat (which goes Labour), but they lose 24 seats across the central belt to Labour and 1 to the Lib Dems as Swinson’s old seat goes back.

The SNP hold onto a few central belt seats and many more rural seats at both ends of the country.

Labour get an overall majority of 202 but on a lower share of the vote and less popular votes than Corbyn got in 2017. Think pieces will be published all over the internet.

Speaking of Corbyn, he himself will miss out by a few hundred votes. Galloway will lose his seat comfortably. 

The Tories will make catastrophic losses across all parts of Britain but will still be the official opposition with just under 100 seats.

Lib Dems will make huge gains. Ed Davey will resist the temptation to perform a “69” related stunt next Friday morning.

Greens will reach a new high water mark by taking Bristol Central, Herefordshire North and Waveney Valley as well as holding their current seat in Brighton.

Reform will have a disappointing night as Farage’s comments on Ukraine come back to bite. This will help them the Conservatives avoid a complete wipeout and keep them in the region of 100 seats. Farage himself will win Clacton and 50p Lee holds his Ashfield seat but Tice is out along with everyone else.

 

[Fullerene]

I suspect there are a lot of Tory voters who thought Brexit was an incredibly stupid idea.  Maybe they always did or at least they do now.

They hate how the party let Farage lead them down a dead end and would like their party back.

Normally these voters would abstain to display this displeasure with their party but on this occasion they might vote Starmer as the least worst option.

I have never voted Tory but I know people who do.  They are not impressed with the current lot.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

5 hours ago, JS_FFC said:

Labour 428 (+231)

Conservative 98 (-278)

Lib Dems 69 (+61)

SNP 26 (-22)

Reform 2 (+2)

Greens 4 (+3)

Plaid 4 (+2)

Northern Ireland/Speaker/Other 19 (+/- 0)

 

 

Scotland:

 

SNP 26 (-22)

Labour 26 (+25)

Lib Dems 5 (+3)

 

 

Some specific predictions:

 

Tories will be wiped out in Scotland and Wales. 
 

Labour and the SNP will be dead even on seats in Scotland and within a few hundred votes of each other overall. I have both on 34% of the vote. 

The SNP will win every current Scottish Tory seat apart from Mundell’s seat (which goes Labour), but they lose 24 seats across the central belt to Labour and 1 to the Lib Dems as Swinson’s old seat goes back.

The SNP hold onto a few central belt seats and many more rural seats at both ends of the country.

Labour get an overall majority of 202 but on a lower share of the vote and less popular votes than Corbyn got in 2017. Think pieces will be published all over the internet.

Speaking of Corbyn, he himself will miss out by a few hundred votes. Galloway will lose his seat comfortably. 

The Tories will make catastrophic losses across all parts of Britain but will still be the official opposition with just under 100 seats.

Lib Dems will make huge gains. Ed Davey will resist the temptation to perform a “69” related stunt next Friday morning.

Greens will reach a new high water mark by taking Bristol Central, Herefordshire North and Waveney Valley as well as holding their current seat in Brighton.

Reform will have a disappointing night as Farage’s comments on Ukraine come back to bite. This will help them the Conservatives avoid a complete wipeout and keep them in the region of 100 seats. Farage himself will win Clacton and 50p Lee holds his Ashfield seat but Tice is out along with everyone else.

 

If only it were that predictable.  Nothing can be taken for granted.

[JS_FFC]

Final prediction

 

 

UK wide

 

Labour 424 seats, 39% popular vote 

Tories 110 seats, 26% popular vote

Lib Dems 67 seats, 12% popular vote

SNP 22 seats, 3% popular vote

Greens 4 seats, 8% popular vote

Reform 2 seats, 11% popular vote

Others 21 seats, 1% popular vote

 

Labour majority of 198

 

Scotland only:

 

Labour 28 seats, 33% popular vote

SNP 22 seats, 31% popular vote

Lib Dems 5 seats, 9% popular vote

Tories 2 seats, 14% popular vote

Reform 0 seats, 6% popular vote 

Greens 0 seats, 3% popular vote

 

 

Specific Scotland predictions:

 

Tories hold on to the two rural border seats held by David Mundell and John Lamont. Dumfries & Galloway goes SNP as does all three of their North East seats

Lib Dems hold on to their current four seats (two of which are notionally SNP). They also gain Mid Dunbartonshire back from Amy Callaghan

SNP hold 18 of their current seats.

Labour hold Edinburgh south and make 27 gains, all from the SNP.

 

 

 

Labour: Edinburgh South. Glasgow North East. Rutherglen. Coatbridge & Bellshill. Glasgow North. Glasgow West. Glasgow South. Dunbartonshire West. Airdrie & Shotts. Glenrothes & Mid Fife. Glasgow East. Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy. Edinburgh East & Musselburgh. Midlothian. Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West. Paisley & Renfrewshire North. Paisley & Renfrewshire South. Hamilton & Clyde Valley. Cumbernauld & Kirkintilloch. Glasgow South West. Bathgate & Linlithgow. East Kilbride & Strathhaven. Dunfermline & Dollar. East Renfrewshire. Livingston. East Lothian. Stirling & Strathallan. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock. (28)

 

SNP: Dundee Central. Kilmarnock & London. Motherwell, Wishaw & Carluke. Edinburgh South West. Edinburgh North & Leith. Na h-Eileanan an Iar. Alloa & Grangemouth. Aberdeen North. Ayrshire Central. Falkirk. Ayrshire North & Arran. Arbroath & Broughty Ferry. Aberdeen South. Argyll, Bute & South Lochaber. Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey. Perth & Kinross-shire. Inverness, Skye & West Ross-shire. Angus & Perthshire Glens. Aberdeen North & Moray East. Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine. Gordon & Buchan. Dumfries & Galloway. (22). 

 

Lib Dem: Orkney & Shetland. Edinburgh West. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross. North East Fife. Mid Dunbartonshire. (5)

 

Tory: Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweedale (2)

 

 

 

Think the SNP, Lib Dems and Tories will all do slightly better overall than some predictions. The former two will benefit from the “supermajority” attack line whereas the Tories will squeeze Reform a bit especially after Boris Johnson’s late intervention.

 

Reform win only Clacton for Farage and Ashfield for 30p Lee. They come second in a bunch of seats but fail to win them due to the late squeeze.

 

Greens win Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley and Herefordshire North.

 

Notable scalps: Thangam Debonnaire. Theresa Villiers. Jeremy Hunt. Jeremy Corbyn. Robert Jenrick. George Galloway. Liz Truss. Richard Tice. Jacob Rees-Mogg. Jonathan Gullis. Grant Shapps. Steve Baker. 

[Wee-Bey]

Right then John Curtis, calm the f**k down.