Third place, four point watch

[JS_FFC]

Two things are a pretty safe bet at this point, firstly a point won’t be enough for us to go through. It’s not impossible, but would take a freak set of results. Defeat and we’re bottom of course.

 

The other is that we’re highly unlikely to sneak second place. We would need a huge goal difference swing and Germany v Switzerland has cagey draw or narrow German win written all over it as both teams prepare for the knockouts.

 

So that leaves us having to win and hope that no more than 3 other third placed teams get to 4 points.

 

Looking at the groups:

 

Group B is a possible goer. To have 3+ teams get to 4 would require at least one of Croatia or Albania to beat Italy or Spain respectively.

 

Group C is still early days. Denmark and Slovenia drawing wasn’t a great result for us. The nightmare is both now beat Serbia. We probably need to hope for England to take maximum points and then either a draw fest between the other teams or one team (probably Serbia) to just clean up.

 

Group D hopefully France and Netherlands both beat Austria and Poland, and then Austria and Poland draw with one another.

 

Group E could be clinched as no more than 3 by the end of the second match day but annoyingly it would require both the underdogs to win again. Decent chance all four teams go into the final game on 3 points and then we’d be hoping for no draws.

 

Group F not looking great. Turkey already beat Georgia and Czech Republic will probably do the same on Saturday. Then you’d fancy them to play out a mutually beneficial draw with one another to both qualify. 
 

 

So I think we are probably hoping for group B plus one of C or D with a small chance of E. F not looking good. We’ll know a lot more over the next few days.

[pandarilla]

Crazy thread - 4 points does us absolutely no bother.

 

Getting the win on Sunday?  That's the fucking hard bit.

[Bully Wee Villa]

22 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

Crazy thread - 4 points does us absolutely no bother.

Seems a perfectly reasonable thread to me. I don't know if it's impossible, but appears unlikely that we win on Sunday and know for certain there and then that we're through as a best third place team. We would almost certainly have to wait and see how at least one or two other results went before being absolutely sure.

So, this thread has the potential to be a useful tool for people wanting to know which results to cheer for, if things go our way against Hungary.

I'm not gonna look at it too closely at least until everyone has played twice, mind.

Edited June 20 by Bully Wee Villa

[Jives Miguel]

3 hours ago, pandarilla said:

Crazy thread - 4 points does us absolutely no bother.

 

Getting the win on Sunday?  That's the fucking hard bit.

Have we not been knocked out 3 or 4 times from tournaments on goal difference? If there's anyone that could be the first team eliminated from the 24 team Euros, it would be us.

[The Holiday Song]

Getting waaaay ahead of myself here, but was trying to figure out where we'd play if we do finish third and get through.

If Group B third don't make it (and reckon it's a decent chance that will be the case unless Croatia can beat Italy), then think we'd be definitely be in Frankfurt on Monday the 1st, versus winners of group F.

Edited June 20 by The Holiday Song

[itzdrk]

12 minutes ago, The Holiday Song said:

Getting waaaay ahead of myself here, but was trying to figure out where we'd play if we do finish third and get through.

If Group B third don't make it (and reckon it's a decent chance that will be the case unless Croatia can beat Italy), then think we'd be definitely be in Frankfurt on Monday the 1st, versus winners of group F.

Win that and we are in Hamburg? 

[JS_FFC]

8 minutes ago, itzdrk said:

Win that and we are in Hamburg? 

Win that, and it’s back to Munich for the first semi final. 

[JS_FFC]

For today’s results we are hoping for:

 

Serbia to avoid defeat against Slovenia at 2pm

A draw is actually preferable, but we don’t want Slovenia to win as that would get them to 4 points with a decent chance that both England and Denmark join them. 
 

England to avoid defeat against Denmark at 5pm

We are indifferent between a draw and an England win. Both of those would get England to 4+ and leave Denmark needing to beat Serbia to join them. 
 

Spain to beat Italy at 8pm

This would mean 4 points is enough unless Albania beat Spain. The next best result would be an Italy win, because that would mean 4 is enough unless Croatia beat Italy. The unfortunate result in this one is a draw because then 4 may not be enough if either Albania or Croatia win their final match.

[VictorOnopko]

4 hours ago, Jives Miguel said:

Have we not been knocked out 3 or 4 times from tournaments on goal difference? If there's anyone that could be the first team eliminated from the 24 team Euros, it would be us.

I posted something similar in the "will we qualify out of the groups" thread but here is the info, which makes grim reading:

WC 74  -  first team to go home from a World Cup unbeaten with a win and two draws, and we went out on GD by 1 goal. 

WC 78 - again out by a single goal on GD when the Dutch (finalists in the end) scored with 20 mins to go to get back to 3-2 down against us.

WC 82 - out after a win and a draw by 2 goals GD because Brazil beat us by more than they beat the USSR.

WC 86 - one goal against Uruguay would have got us through although we had lost the first two. We drew 0-0.

WC 90 - out as the lowest 3rd placed team - this table makes bad reading

WC 1990 Ranking of third-placed teams

Pos	Grp	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Qualification
1	B	Argentina	3	1	1	1	3	2	+1	3	Advance to knockout stage
2	D	Colombia	3	1	1	1	3	2	+1	3
3	F	Netherlands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	E	Uruguay	3	1	1	1	2	3	−1	3
5	A	Austria	3	1	0	2	2	3	−1	2
6	C	Scotland	3	1	0	2	2	3	−1	2

Euro 96 - out yet again by 1 goal on 4 pts when the Dutch scored in a heavy loss against England (cue smug, grinning Shearer post-match when told that it had knocked us out, "what a shame" - c6nt) and we couldn't find a second against the Swiss.

We arguably weren't even miles off it at the last Euros when we were drawing 1-1 with Croatia in the final match (although they eased past us in the end).

The 92 Euros and 98 World Cup are the only non-narrow misses I think, although in 98 we obviously thought we had the chance to qualify in the final game. People forget though that while we were busy being tonked by Morocco, Norway beat Brazil and finished on 5 pts, so Morocco didn't qualify either!

Overall, I'm not sure if any other country has had so many close failures to get out of the groups.

 

[ICTChris]

We beat Hungary 4-0.

Germany beat Switzerland 3-0.

We go through second.

Easy.

[Skyline Drifter]

10 hours ago, JS_FFC said:

we’re highly unlikely to sneak second place. We would need a huge goal difference swing and Germany v Switzerland has cagey draw or narrow German win written all over it as both teams prepare for the knockouts.

I said last night this group had Euro 96 vibes about it. Us leading Hungary 2-0, Germany 4 or 5 up on the Swiss and then conceding a stupid late goal to drop us behind the Swiss again. Of course this time that would likely do fine. There were no 3rd place qualifiers in 96.

[Skyline Drifter]

8 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Seems a perfectly reasonable thread to me. I don't know if it's impossible, but appears unlikely that we win on Sunday and know for certain there and then that we're through as a best third place team. We would almost certainly have to wait and see how at least one or two other results went before being absolutely sure.

So, this thread has the potential to be a useful tool for people wanting to know which results to cheer for, if things go our way against Hungary.

I'm not gonna look at it too closely at least until everyone has played twice, mind.

This.

It's impossible for us to know on Sunday night we're through unless we somehow swing the goal difference and get 2nd. To be definitely through in 3rd we'd need to get to 4 points and for it to be impossible for at least two other groups to do the same. For that to be the case you'd need two groups where the same two teams win the opening two games. Because of the order of games the only group where that could be the case is Group E if Slovakia beat Ukraine and Romania beat Belgium.

It is though highly likely 4 points will do as @JS_FFC has analysed. 3rd place in Group B probably doesn't get to 4. Group D probably the most likely other to be in that position but until everyone has played twice it's hard to draw any proper conclusions from it.

There are unlikely scenarios where 2 points might do. A draw with Hungary does now get us 3rd. You'd need two groups to finish with the bottom two drawing with one another and losing to both the other sides. Reasonably likely already in Group B. Wins for England and Serbia today would give a chance of it in that group. Poland and Austria drawing would open up the possibility in Group D. Wins for both Romania and Slovakia in Group E leaves it possible (but that involves assuming Belgium lose again this week and then draw with Ukraine in their 3rd game which is pretty unlikely). Czechia and Georgia drawing in Group F would also leave the possibility though it would still require Turkey to beat the Czechs in their last game.

39 minutes ago, VictorOnopko said:

I posted something similar in the "will we qualify out of the groups" thread but here is the info, which makes grim reading:

WC 74  -  first team to go home from a World Cup unbeaten with a win and two draws, and we went out on GD by 1 goal. 

WC 78 - again out by a single goal on GD when the Dutch (finalists in the end) scored with 20 mins to go to get back to 3-2 down against us.

WC 82 - out after a win and a draw by 2 goals GD because Brazil beat us by more than they beat the USSR.

WC 86 - one goal against Uruguay would have got us through although we had lost the first two. We drew 0-0.

WC 90 - out as the lowest 3rd placed team - this table makes bad reading

WC 1990 Ranking of third-placed teams

Pos	Grp	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Qualification
1	B	Argentina	3	1	1	1	3	2	+1	3	Advance to knockout stage
2	D	Colombia	3	1	1	1	3	2	+1	3
3	F	Netherlands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	E	Uruguay	3	1	1	1	2	3	−1	3
5	A	Austria	3	1	0	2	2	3	−1	2
6	C	Scotland	3	1	0	2	2	3	−1	2

Euro 96 - out yet again by 1 goal on 4 pts when the Dutch scored in a heavy loss against England (cue smug, grinning Shearer post-match when told that it had knocked us out, "what a shame" - c6nt) and we couldn't find a second against the Swiss.

We arguably weren't even miles off it at the last Euros when we were drawing 1-1 with Croatia in the final match (although they eased past us in the end).

The 92 Euros and 98 World Cup are the only non-narrow misses I think, although in 98 we obviously thought we had the chance to qualify in the final game. People forget though that while we were busy being tonked by Morocco, Norway beat Brazil and finished on 5 pts, so Morocco didn't qualify either!

Overall, I'm not sure if any other country has had so many close failures to get out of the groups.

 

To be pedantic, in 1990 we were absolutely tied with Austria, not "lowest ranked". That table is just presented in alphabetical or group number order. If Uruguay had lost their last game we'd have drawn lots with the Austrians.

I appreciate you are aware of this but it's worth stressing that if Euro 92 was the only one where we were out in two games, it was also our best performance as there only were 8 teams qualified for it. In saying we didn't get out of the group we're saying we didn't reach the semi finals! We effectively finished 5th/6th in that tournament and unless we get out of this group AND win at least one knockout game we haven't actually done better. Of course there were less countries in 1992 and it was easier to get to the last eight.

And you're absolutely right about 98. I mean it didn't matter as we were down and out by half time v Morocco so nobody paid any attention to what was happening in Brazil v Norway but there was an assumption we'd go through by winning and ultimately we wouldn't have.

[JS_FFC]

Yep last time we went in to the last game on 1 point but already knowing a win would take us through because we were in group D and both Finland and Ukraine had already finished in third place with 3 points. This time we are going to need to win and then wait it out, although only 2 scenarios out of 5 need to go in our way.

 

I think generally I’m hoping for as few matches as possible on the last day between two teams who have 3 points each. This would set up mutually beneficial draws which could be a disaster for us.

 

That’s why England avoiding defeat to Denmark today is paramount for us. 
 

Netherlands v Austria (or less likely France v Poland) in group D could definitely fall into the mutually beneficial draw category, as could Czech Republic v Turkey in group F and both group E matches (although even if all 4 teams in that group go into the last day on 3 points, one of them will need to win to avoid finishing bottom. Probably Ukraine given their heavy defeat to Romania)

[VictorOnopko]

41 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

To be pedantic, in 1990 we were absolutely tied with Austria, not "lowest ranked". That table is just presented in alphabetical or group number order. If Uruguay had lost their last game we'd have drawn lots with the Austrians.

I appreciate you are aware of this but it's worth stressing that if Euro 92 was the only one where we were out in two games, it was also our best performance as there only were 8 teams qualified for it. In saying we didn't get out of the group we're saying we didn't reach the semi finals! We effectively finished 5th/6th in that tournament and unless we get out of this group AND win at least one knockout game we haven't actually done better. Of course there were less countries in 1992 and it was easier to get to the last eight.

And you're absolutely right about 98. I mean it didn't matter as we were down and out by half time v Morocco so nobody paid any attention to what was happening in Brazil v Norway but there was an assumption we'd go through by winning and ultimately we wouldn't have.

Yes, all fair points there, we were indeed joint lowest ranked at 90 and Euro 92 was a small finals so overall it was a very creditable performance.  In fact when you look back, we've competed well at quite a lot of these finals, often with one memorably bad result (Iran, Costa Rica, Morocco, Czechs at home). The disappointment against Germany was that we were so spectacularly outclassed, but it was only one game which we were expected to lose, just not that heavily.

Obviously in a purely rational sense all this history has no bearing at all on how things might pan out this time, but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if we beat Hungary and were eliminated anyway, on 4 points, once again.

Edited June 20 by VictorOnopko

[craigkillie]

I've had a quick browse of all major international tournaments with this 24 team format and 3 points for a win including previous Euros, Women's World Cup, AFCON and Asia Cup, and there has never been a team knocked out on 4 points. It's not impossible, of course.

[Skyline Drifter]

16 minutes ago, VictorOnopko said:

Yes, all fair points there, we were indeed joint lowest ranked at 90 and Euro 92 was a small finals so overall it was a very creditable performance.  In fact when you look back, we've competed well at quite a lot of these finals, often with one memorably bad result (Iran, Costa Rica, Morocco, Czechs at home). The disappointment against Germany was that we were so spectacularly outclassed, but it was only one game.

You're right of course but I'd contend the Czech result, which was a 50/50 shout, wasn't at the same level as the others. And even at that a lot of the other three was ignorance about their level and an assumption they were "wee countries from the 3rd world we'd beat no bother". Morocco were an emerging force in 98 who have gone on to be a decent international competitor, especially at the last World Cup. Costa Rica also beat Sweden and only lost 1-0 to Brazil, comfortably clinching 2nd in the group and going through. Iran though was a genuinely embarrassing result. They were well hammered by the Dutch and Peru in the same group.

6 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

I've had a quick browse of all major international tournaments with this 24 team format and 3 points for a win including previous Euros, Women's World Cup, AFCON and Asia Cup, and there has never been a team knocked out on 4 points. It's not impossible, of course.

I thought somebody didn't go through with 4 points at some point because they actually finished 4th in a group where everyone got 4 points (appreciate that's not happening with us)? Can't recall who but sure I read it last week.

[BFTD]

As Morocco in 98 is getting mentioned, they were pretty unfortunate not to progress and were a good team. We were really flat, well beaten, and didn't acquit ourselves well at all, but it was against a peer rather than a side we'd no business losing to. Sometimes people seem to think that we were clearly better than them, like we do with Costa Rica, Iran, and Peru.

I don't think losing to the Czechs at the last Euros was a poor result either - they were/are fairly mediocre, but we were (deservedly) one of the Nations League charity sides, and playing at home doesn't change that. Disappointing yes, but would anyone really have been surprised if we'd been in the Czech's qualifying group and lost to them at Hampden? We'd just been slaughtered by Belgium, Russia, and Kazakhstan.

[BFTD]

2 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

I thought somebody didn't go through with 4 points at some point because they actually finished 4th in a group where everyone got 4 points (appreciate that's not happening with us)? Can't recall who but sure I read it last week.

You're thinking about Norway at USA 94.

Played for a draw in the final game against Ireland and suddenly realised they were going out in the last ten minutes  

[Skyline Drifter]

2 minutes ago, BFTD said:

You're thinking about Norway at USA 94.

Played for a draw in the final game against Ireland and suddenly realised they were going out in the last ten minutes  

Don't think I am. I'm not remembering it at all tbh. I just read somewhere last week that the only team to get 4 points in the era of best 3rd places and not get through had actually finished 4th in a group where everyone got 4 points. Can't recall the details though annoyingly.

[BFTD]

2 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Don't think I am. I'm not remembering it at all tbh. I just read somewhere last week that the only team to get 4 points in the era of best 3rd places and not get through had actually finished 4th in a group where everyone got 4 points. Can't recall the details though annoyingly.

Aye, that's Norway in 1994.

Edit: something similar almost happened in Italy 90, as the only match that wasn't drawn was England's 1-0 win against Egypt (who I remember being dismissed as Third Division level opposition in the build-up). If that had stayed 0-0, all four sides would've finished on three points. As it was, Eire and the Dutch needed to draw lots to decide who was second/third.

Edited June 20 by BFTD