Third place, four point watch

[JS_FFC]

Group D

We would love a Poland/Austria draw and the Netherlands/France game to not be a draw. If that happens, we’d just need the Netherlands/France winner to avoid defeat on the last day, same scenario as Group B.

 

Group E

The two underdogs in this group won on day 1 and we’d love to see that again. If Romania beat Belgium and Slovakia beat Ukraine, third place in this group can’t get to 4.

 

 

Group F

The best scenario here would be for Portugal to beat Turkey and Georgia to get a point against Czechoslovakia. If that’s the case then 3rd place can’t get to 4 unless Georgia beat Portugal.

[H Wragg]

 

20 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

 

Excellent, cheers.

[Skyline Drifter]

13 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

Group D

We would love a Poland/Austria draw and the Netherlands/France game to not be a draw. If that happens, we’d just need the Netherlands/France winner to avoid defeat on the last day, same scenario as Group B.

Group E

The two underdogs in this group won on day 1 and we’d love to see that again. If Romania beat Belgium and Slovakia beat Ukraine, third place in this group can’t get to 4.

Group F

The best scenario here would be for Portugal to beat Turkey and Georgia to get a point against Czechoslovakia. If that’s the case then 3rd place can’t get to 4 unless Georgia beat Portugal.

Again, depends on your viewpoint. Not sure I quite agree with those.

Group D - 100% we want a Poland Austria draw. I'd contend a draw is better in France v Netherlands means both countries will need to try in their last games as neither is definitely through. If there is a winner then that country is almost certainly through (depending on the Poland Austria result) and potentially has already won their group. Not sure I trust the Dutch second string in particular to beat Austria in that scenario.

Group E - Agree with you that's what we'd want but it is fairly unlikely. There's still a distinct possibility that this group could finish with all four on 4 points.

Group F - Certainly Georgia v Czechia being a draw would be ideal. Again my view on Turkey v Portugal reflects what I said on Group D. I'd prefer it to be a draw too and leave them both playing for something on matchday 3. I'm slightly less convinced about this one as I don't know where Turkey are relative to the Czechs. It's the kind of group where three teams on 6 points is possible but if the Czechs do drop a point to Georgia then Turkey needing something from the game is crucial so a Portugal win might be better. Pretty sure we don't want Turkey beating Portugal and sitting on their haunches against the Czechs.

Edited June 21 by Skyline Drifter

[H Wragg]

12 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Thanks. I had a client on the phone so hadn't got back to that yet!

Work comes before all this nonsense (or it least it should)!

[Gaz]

For us to go through with two points, we need Poland to draw with Austria today and Slovakia to beat Ukraine.

[Artemis]

9 hours ago, CraigInLondon said:

Took me a while but it’s referring to the groups, rather than the third place table.

 

Top two go through, third might depending on their place in this table.

 

You’re right, it is referring to the groups but they’ve got the lines in the third place table in the same place as in the groups. The lines make sense in the groups as the top 2 qualify and 3rd place might do. But in the third place table, there should only be one line after the 4th placed team instead of having one under the top 2 and one under third.

Edit - BBC have changed it today to show the line under the 4th placed team.

Edited June 21 by Artemis

[JS_FFC]

15 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Again, depends on your viewpoint. Not sure I quite agree with those.

Group D - 100% we want a Poland Austria draw. I'd contend a draw is better in France v Netherlands means both countries will need to try in their last games as neither is definitely through. If there is a winner then that country is almost certainly through (depending on the Poland Austria result) and potentially has already won their group. Not sure I trust the Dutch second string in particular to beat Austria in that scenario.

Group E - Agree with you that's what we'd want but it is fairly unlikely. There's still a distinct possibility that this group could finish with all four on 4 points.

Group F - Certainly Georgia v Czechia being a draw would be ideal. Again my view on Turkey v Portugal reflects what I said on Group D. I'd prefer it to be a draw too and leave them both playing for something on matchday 3. I'm slightly less convinced about this one as I don't know where Turkey are relative to the Czechs. It's the kind of group where three teams on 6 points is possible but if the Czechs do drop a point to Georgia then Turkey needing something from the game is crucial so a Portugal win might be better. Pretty sure we don't want Turkey beating Portugal and sitting on their haunches against the Czechs.

I understand your point of view. The reason I don’t really want draws in the games between two teams on 3 points (France/Netherlands and Portugal/Turkey, and I didn’t want a draw in the Spain/Italy game either) is that when a group is 6-3-1-1 rather than 4-4-1-1, you only need one result to go your way on the last day to have third place on < 4 points (The team on 6 points needs to avoid defeat, because the other game can only have one team get to 4 points).

 

In a 4-4-1-1 scenario you need both of the teams on 4 points to avoid defeat in the last match.

[Skyline Drifter]

15 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

I understand your point of view. The reason I don’t really want draws in the games between two teams on 3 points (France/Netherlands and Portugal/Turkey, and I didn’t want a draw in the Spain/Italy game either) is that when a group is 6-3-1-1 rather than 4-4-1-1, you only need one result to go your way on the last day to have third place on < 4 points (The team on 6 points needs to avoid defeat, because the other game can only have one team get to 4 points).

 

In a 4-4-1-1 scenario you need both of the teams on 4 points to avoid defeat in the last match.

Yes, I knew that, but:

1 - in your scenario the one result you need may potentially be the one country that has already won its group and has no real incentive to get it. In 4-4-1-1 they both need to try.

2 - I've still got half an eye on a couple of these groups having 3rd place finish on 1 point (appreciate you're not looking at that). The chances of that increase marginally in my scenario where both top countries are trying in their last game.

Like I say, depends on your point of view. Nothing wrong with your opinion, I'm just not sure I quite agree with it entirely at this point. Ultimately it's fairly moot. The top countries will have a group of reserves good enough to win games anyway if they want to do so enough.

Edited June 21 by Skyline Drifter

[The Other Foot]

3 hours ago, JS_FFC said:

Czechoslovakia.

[Virtual Insanity]

5 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Depends which 4 3rd place teams get through.

If we go through in 3rd we'll definitely play either winner of Group B, Group E or Group F. B is likely to be Spain, the other two still up for grabs but E will likely be Romania, Slovakia or Belgium and F will likely be Portugal.

EDIT - If we go through in 3rd, and 3rd place in Group B doesn't (which at this point is reasonably likely), we would play the Group F winner so likely Ronaldo and co.

 

 

 

Based on data from Football Meets Data on Twitter, if we get through our chances are currently approx 83% Group F in Frankfurt, 12% Group E in Munich and 5% Group B in Cologne. 

 

One thing I can't quite work out is eg in the ABCD situation, 1C has to play 3D and 1B has to play 3A by process of elimination, but how do they then assign 3B and 3C?

[forameus]

5 minutes ago, Virtual Insanity said:

Based on data from Football Meets Data on Twitter, if we get through our chances are currently approx 83% Group F in Frankfurt, 12% Group E in Munich and 5% Group B in Cologne. 

 

One thing I can't quite work out is eg in the ABCD situation, 1C has to play 3D and 1B has to play 3A by process of elimination, but how do they then assign 3B and 3C?

Don't hate that, although, thinking far further ahead than I should, that does put us in a pretty stinking half of the draw.  Portugal/Turkey would await in the next round, which seem like the sort of sides that could either f**k us royally or have an absolute nightmare and go out.  Get through that and it becomes a bit more nightmarish.  Groups D or E would be the next to dip into, so could be Netherlands (at least we haven't been absolutely pumped by them recently) or the pretty impressive looking (so far at least) Slovakia or Romania.  Then Spain.  But England in the final, so at least it gets easier then.

So watch us absolutely shit the bed against Hungary and go home instead.

[Skyline Drifter]

6 hours ago, JS_FFC said:

Group E

The two underdogs in this group won on day 1 and we’d love to see that again. If Romania beat Belgium and Slovakia beat Ukraine, third place in this group can’t get to 4.

 

5 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Group E - Agree with you that's what we'd want but it is fairly unlikely. There's still a distinct possibility that this group could finish with all four on 4 points.

Game of two halves very much but Ukraine's win means my suggestion of 4 points all round is still very much alive. I expect Belgium to beat Romania and get them all on 3 points heading into the last game.

Both games playing at the same time but strong chance that if, for instance Belgium are a couple up on Ukraine, Romania and Slovakia carve up a draw to both go through as they are likely to know for sure by then that 4 points will do.

What we do know for sure now is 3rd place in this group won't get 1 point. or even 2 with a low GD. They might still get 3 but we can be sure that a draw against Hungary will NOT be enough to beat 3rd in this group.

[JS_FFC]

12 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

 

Game of two halves very much but Ukraine's win means my suggestion of 4 points all round is still very much alive. I expect Belgium to beat Romania and get them all on 3 points heading into the last game.

 

Both games playing at the same time but strong chance that if, for instance Belgium are a couple up on Ukraine, Romania and Slovakia carve up a draw to both go through as they are likely to know for sure by then that 4 points will do.

What we do know for sure now is 3rd place in this group won't get 1 point. or even 2 with a low GD. They might still get 3 but we can be sure that a draw against Hungary will NOT be enough to beat 3rd in this group.

 

Unless Romania get absolute thumped by Belgium then a draw in Romania v Slovakia will be mutually beneficial. At the moment Slovakia have a better goal difference than Ukraine, Romania’s is far better than Ukraine. Assuming that’s still the case tomorrow night (which it will be unless Belgium put 5 past Romania), then a draw between Romania and Slovakia would either put both a point above the loser of Ukraine/Belgium, or if it’s a draw then they’d both finish above Ukraine on goal difference *I think*
 

The reason I’ve put that caveat at the end is because I’m not entirely clear how the tiebreaker works. UEFA use head to head rather than goal difference as their first tiebreaker, but obviously in a scenario where all 4 teams finish on 4 points with 1W, 1D, 1L, head to head isn’t useful.

 

So they’d go to goal difference which would probably make Romania the group winners unless Belgium beat them handily today. Do they assign all teams 1st-4th place based on GD or would they then exclude the group winner and re-run head to head tiebreaker for only the other 3? If that was to be the case then Ukraine would probably finish 2nd.

[Artemis]

25 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

So they’d go to goal difference which would probably make Romania the group winners unless Belgium beat them handily today. Do they assign all teams 1st-4th place based on GD or would they then exclude the group winner and re-run head to head tiebreaker for only the other 3? If that was to be the case then Ukraine would probably finish 2nd.

I think it is this (if GD and goals scored can’t separate the remaining teams). Point 4 below. I’ve used numbers in the text because the criteria changed to numbers from letters when I copied it.

 

If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points on completion of the final tournament group stage, the following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine their rankings:

1. higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question;

2. superior goal difference resulting from the matches played among the teams in question;

3. higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question;

4. if, after having applied criteria 1 to 3 teams still have an equal ranking, criteria 1 to 3 are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria 5 to 8 apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal:

5. superior goal difference in all group matches;

6. higher number of goals scored in all group matches;

7. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);

8. position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings (see Article 23), or if Germany, the host association team, is involved in the comparison, drawing of lots.

Tiebreaker

Also, if only 2 teams in a group are equal on points, GD and goals scored after match 3 (which was against each other) they have a penalty shoot out. Have we seen that before?

Edited June 21 by Artemis

[Monkey Tennis]

On 20/06/2024 at 10:24, Skyline Drifter said:

Morocco were an emerging force in 98 who have gone on to be a decent international competitor

Sterling work on the thread of course, but there's a nit needing picked.

It's a stretch to describe Morocco as above.

12 years earlier, Morocco had won the group they'd shared with England, Poland and Portugal en route to being eliminated only by a last minute German goal as they drove towards the final.

[BFTD]

Aye, Morocco have been a decent side capable of holding their own against good European nations for quite a while now. If they'd been in UEFA since the Eighties, I'd suggest they'd have been a solid Pot 2 team more often than not during that time.

Egypt are another story altogether. Three back-to-back AFCON wins and no World Cups for 28 years  

[JS_FFC]

The first two results today have not been good news for us at all.

Austria/Netherlands and Romania/Slovakia now both have “mutually beneficial draw” written all over them so you can forget about groups D and E.

 

If the two results in group F tomorrow go as expected then you can add Turkey/Czech to that list too.

 

So then we are relying on Spain to avoid defeat against Albania and either England to avoid defeat against Slovenia or Serbia and Denmark to draw a game that’s must win for both. 

 

[nate]

Not scrutinised this as much as some of you, but it seems to me as things stand the chances of not qualifying with 4 points would take a very freaky combination of results elsewhere to deny us. Maybe too freaky to be plausible. As for 2pts being enough to get through, we would need two of the following to happen (correct me if I’m wrong)

Group B : Spain bt Albania. Italy bt Croatia.

Group C : Denmark bt Serbia. England bt Slovenia by 4 or more

Group D : Nae use

Group E : Nae use

Group F : Czech/Georgia draw tomorrow and both lose their final games.

BTW, if we finish with an identical record to other team(s) in other groups - same pts,same GD, same GF - does the disciplinary stuff kick in? Would the Porteous sending off automatically relegate us even if one of the others had racked up 10 or 20 yellows?

 

[microdave]

46 minutes ago, nate said:

Not scrutinised this as much as some of you, but it seems to me as things stand the chances of not qualifying with 4 points would take a very freaky combination of results elsewhere to deny us. Maybe too freaky to be plausible. As for 2pts being enough to get through, we would need two of the following to happen (correct me if I’m wrong)

Group B : Spain bt Albania. Italy bt Croatia.

Group C : Denmark bt Serbia. England bt Slovenia by 4 or more

Group D : Nae use

Group E : Nae use

Group F : Czech/Georgia draw tomorrow and both lose their final games.

BTW, if we finish with an identical record to other team(s) in other groups - same pts,same GD, same GF - does the disciplinary stuff kick in? Would the Porteous sending off automatically relegate us even if one of the others had racked up 10 or 20 yellows?

 

1. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)

      Eta We're currently on 7 disciplinary points for one red and 3 yellow cards.

Edited June 21 by microdave

[Skyline Drifter]

9 minutes ago, microdave said:

1. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)

      Eta We're currently on 7 disciplinary points for one red and 3 yellow cards.

It would be peak Scotland to be sent home due to Porteous' red card! 

Anyway, not had the chance to look at this properly today due to completing leg 1 of the journey to Stuttgart (reached Edinburgh). Saw most of Ukraine game but none of Austria one. Not been a good day for us. Very unlikely now to sneak through with 2 points so we are now in win or bust territory v Hungary. Even that isnt yet certain to be enough but it likely would be.

Updates from me in next 72 hours likely to be sparse. I'm sure @JS_FFC will keep us right though.