10 Years Ago

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

2 minutes ago, Cheese said:

Post 2014 I don't think either side have learned much from the referendum, except the No side's extreme reluctance to even entertain any dialogue on having another one for obvious reasons.

The SNP subsumed the broader movement, it became very top down and the whole idea was put into a vehicle for SNP electoral dominance for a decade, with next to nothing in return except an enabling of a host of elected and non elected public purse parasites and calls for 'one more push' and 'it's just round the corner, one more election bro, honest'. Very telling that support for independence remains the same, but support for the SNP and party membership has taken a big hit recently.

The British State continues to lurch from crisis to crisis, much of which is their own doing, with public services deteriorating and scandal ridden, hollowed out institutions. Still nothing in the way of any type of vision for the future beyond Boris Johnson's 'levelling up' (a cruel hoax deliberately left vague so the press could attach their own thoughts to what it would mean like 'eleventy new hospitals' or a 'Northern Powerhouse') and Keir Starmer's 'Change' (the guy at the top will be wearing a different coloured tie)

 

Good post, and it actually gives me optimism as a Unionist.

The UK government has been an utter shambles for a long time and yet No still beats yes in the polls, albeit by a slim margin.

If we had a government with integrity, then that gap would widen.

Thing is, I'm not quite sure where that government would come from 

[Wee-Bey]

1 hour ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

 

Good post, and it actually gives me optimism as a Unionist.

The UK government has been an utter shambles for a long time and yet No still beats yes in the polls, albeit by a slim margin.

If we had a government with integrity, then that gap would widen.

Thing is, I'm not quite sure where that government would come from 

I mean, I take it your optimisim comes from the fact that is looks unlikely another referendum will happen in the foreseeable future rather than anyone having the will or capability to arrest the permacrises and terminal decline ?

[invergowrie arab]

2 hours ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

Looks like your time saving measure has come up short  

Parts of Ayrshire and Lothian too.

In which parts of Lothian and Ayrshire was Gaelic not spoken? Even in the least Gaelic bit - East Lothian - the following all need some explaining if Gaelic was never spoken there.

Ballencrieff
Craigie Law
Craigleith
Drem
Drummore 
Dunbar
Dunglass 
Garvald 
Innerwick 
Inveresk
Kilspindie 
Lochend 
Pressmennan 

The conquest of Lothian in the 10th century was followed by at least a century of Gaelic hegemony in the region. It was undoubtedly multi lingual throughout that time but it's nonsense to say it wasn't there.

The idea that there was any part of Ayrshire that never spoke Gaelic isnt worth engaging with.

 

Edited Wednesday at 22:27 by invergowrie arab

[Thistle_do_nicely]

Kind of wonder, and its a bleak thought really, but Britain voting leave to the EU & the demographic split in Remain/Leave, it being heralded as a "material change in circumstances" without (at least immediately) amounting to enough of a swing to Yes... whats the next grift for Reform/Farage types for the foreseeable?

The SNP being as uninspiring as they've been likely means they'll take some hits at Holyrood/Westminster, but it seems a bit telling that UK Labour are 5 minutes after a crushing win and already have the feel of a bored, stale govt thats more or less just presiding over a managed decline & cant or wont do anything other than bland tinkering at the edges. On the one hand giveth 0.2 extra teachers per school, and with the other hand taketh away a lot of peoples Winter Fuel Allowance and f**k knows what else in the coming October budget...

Linked to the above grifts - whats the next likely seismic shift they push for that could/really *should* see enough of a jump to Yes?

The NHS finally getting fully replaced with a Great British Employment Healthcare Programme? (i.e. shitey Americanised healthcare ran for profit)

A genuine tyrant bankrolled in as PM? 

NI voting to unite with the ROI? Wales pushing for independence?

If the decline/worsening of Britain carries on slowly enough its maybe going to just be a bit like that whole "frogs leap out of boiling water immediately but will sit in it if you slowly increase the heat" thing for Scotland. Yay.

Edited Wednesday at 22:54 by Thistle_do_nicely

[Thistle_do_nicely]

Regarding figures around/not around

- renton on here was always a good read

- Charles Kennedy passing away shortly after losing his seat was saddening

- Gordon Brown is a duplicitous wee shitebag that pledged SuperMegaUltraDexoToTheMax as a mere backbencher, asked for a petition to make the government uphold the promises *he'd* made, and  ran away/stood down when he realised he was going to get turfed out of his seat.

f**k Gordon Brown.

Edit; aye, scumbag, found this.

Edited Wednesday at 23:09 by Thistle_do_nicely

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

6 hours ago, Lex said:

Because people move from YES to NO as they get older and naturally become more risk averse.

It's easy to be a YES supporter when you're a 21 year old student with no job or dependents, you don't have a lot to lose if it all goes tits up. By the time you're 41 and you've got a mortgage, a job, a pension and a family it's a far harder punt to take.

Aye im much better off under the austerity and trussnomics legacy as a mortgage holder 10 years on. Im very appreciative of my below inflation wage too. Im so glad we didnt take a risk. I mean labour warned us our energy bills might rise £800 a year, with Scotland voting no they only went up by £1200 a year, i can do so much with my -£400. At least ill get a winter fuel payment along with the worst state pension in europe. Im glad we voted no to guarantee our place in the EU too, thats a real relief. Mah it was the right result. Thankfully the UK hasnt turned into a complete basketcase of a country. 

[git-intae-thum]

50 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Aye im much better off under the austerity and trussnomics legacy as a mortgage holder 10 years on. Im very appreciative of my below inflation wage too. Im so glad we didnt take a risk. I mean labour warned us our energy bills might rise £800 a year, with Scotland voting no they only went up by £1200 a year, i can do so much with my -£400. At least ill get a winter fuel payment along with the worst state pension in europe. Im glad we voted no to guarantee our place in the EU too, thats a real relief. Mah it was the right result. Thankfully the UK hasnt turned into a complete basketcase of a country. 

Indeed...I can respect the "just feel British" type no voter like Carrbridge etc.

But anyone claiming we made the correct decision in 2014 having seen the resultant socio economic consequence is only fit to be pitied. 

[TheScarf]

6 hours ago, git-intae-thum said:

Indeed...I can respect the "just feel British" type no voter like Carrbridge etc.

But anyone claiming we made the correct decision in 2014 having seen the resultant socio economic consequence is only fit to be pitied. 

I’m the complete opposite. I think ‘I don’t want to lose my sense of Britishness’ is a fucking mental reason to have voted no.

I agree with your second paragraph. 

[Granny Danger]

This is the result of a poll taken very recently by Opinium.

Pretty sure the Independence issue isn’t dead.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Im really glad the cost of living hasnt risen massively! Better together!  

[scottsdad]

Indyref was when I lost all respect for Gordon Brown. Not for The Vow - that was too little, too late and made no difference, really.

He peddled two serious lies. First was him going round care homes saying "Your UK pension will stop", scaring the elderly into voting No. An out and out lie. 

The second was that cross-border blood and organ donations would stop. The agency that runs this had to issue a statement stating that this was incorrect also. So, he was scaring ill folk and people on transplant waiting lists. 

Credibility shot for me. I've done my best to ignore him ever since. 

[Bula Bairn]

10 years on and scarily accurate... 

 

[HTG]

23 hours ago, Lex said:

There isn't any. The UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to legislate on the UK constitution - unsurprisingly. The only legal route to one is a referendum bill being voted through by Westminster, as it was prior to 2014.

 

So, how does Scotland exercise any right to self determination?

If it were as a result of election results, it would already have happened. This stuff about percentage of the vote in an election doesn't fly - UK governments are routinely elected on the basis of a vote share between 30% and 40%. 

This is the view articulated by Thatcher as a sitting Prime Minister. So, how does one go about establishing this self-determination in the face of absolute obstruction? 

""as a nation, they [Scotland] have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. 

Should they determine on independence no English party or politician would stand in their way […] What the Scots (nor indeed the English) cannot do [...] is to insist upon their own terms for remaining in the Union, regardless of the views of the others"

[I Clavdivs]

37 minutes ago, Bula Bairn said:

10 years on and scarily accurate... 

 

My own personal favourite was the claim made by the then Labour leader Johann 'Stairheid Rammy' Lamont that "Scots were not genetically programmed to make political decisions" .

[GallowayBlue]

On 18/09/2024 at 10:22, Lex said:

There isn't any. The UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to legislate on the UK constitution - unsurprisingly. The only legal route to one is a referendum bill being voted through by Westminster, as it was prior to 2014.

There is zero chance of that happening in the foreseeable future.  Looked at one point like the SNP might call an illegal one ala Catalonia - there was an even a date for October 2023 -  but that got quickly shelved when they realised it would be boycotted by unionists and any 'result' would be quickly disregarded. As the Catalonian one was.

The better question would be, what's the democratic route to independence for Scotland?

[Lex]

4 minutes ago, GallowayBlue said:

The better question would be, what's the democratic route to independence for Scotland?

To get a referendum bill passed through Westminster, as it was last time. And then win that referendum

[GallowayBlue]

13 minutes ago, Lex said:

To get a referendum bill passed through Westminster, as it was last time. And then win that referendum

Consecutive Westminster governments - and the only two parties ever likely to form a government - have said that they won't allow a referendum to happen.

Unless that position changes, does your answer not essentially become "there is no democratic route to independence for Scotland"?

Just out of interest, regardless of thoughts on yes or no, on a philosophical/theoretical level, do you think the question of whether Scotland should be independent should be asked/acted upon by those in Scotland?

Or do you think it should be a question that can only be asked/acted upon with the blessing of people in some kind of combination of England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland?

Edited Thursday at 10:18 by GallowayBlue

[Lex]

26 minutes ago, GallowayBlue said:

Consecutive Westminster governments - and the only two parties ever likely to form a government - have said that they won't allow a referendum to happen.

Unless that position changes, does your answer not essentially become "there is no democratic route to independence for Scotland"?

Just out of interest, regardless of thoughts on yes or no, on a philosophical/theoretical level, do you think the question of whether Scotland should be independent should be asked/acted upon by those in Scotland?

Or do you think it should be a question that can only be asked/acted upon with the blessing of people in some kind of combination of England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland?

Well there's certainly no chance this parliament after the sound hiding the SNP got at the recent general election. Starmer has far more Scottish MP's than the SNP do, so that's it correctly put to bed till 2029 at the very earliest.

At the Scottish Parliamentary election in 2026 the current slender independence majority is very likely to disappear - it would only need a slight decrease in nationalist vote share for that to happen, nothing of the scale of the collapse in the indy vote we seen in July. It's therefore probable we will have a unionist majority in Holyrood between 2026 and 2031, so again, that would put it to bed for the life at that parliament. If Holyrood can't pass a referendum bill then Westminster certainly won't.

Realistically then, we will be well into the 2030's before there's even a prospect of a second referendum. If there is a pro-indy majority in Holyrood and amongst Scottish MP's in Westminster from 2031 onwards another referendum could very well pass another bill through. Almost twenty years will have passed by then, that's certainly a generation by any measure. 

But who can say what the political landscape will look like in the 2030's. The only thing we can say for sure is that it will be very different than it is today, with new leaders across the board. What I think is more likely is that Scotland becomes like Quebec, who had a very close independence vote in 1995 - 50.5% to 49.5%. The nationalist movement remains there and is very vocal, but there is no realistic chance of another referendum. 

[eez-eh]

So a pro-unionist majority in both parliaments is grounds for dismissing any talk of a referendum.  But pro-indy majorities still see it being dismissed anyway.

Good to know.

[GallowayBlue]

37 minutes ago, Lex said:

Well there's certainly no chance this parliament after the sound hiding the SNP got at the recent general election. Starmer has far more Scottish MP's than the SNP do, so that's it correctly put to bed till 2029 at the very earliest.

At the Scottish Parliamentary election in 2026 the current slender independence majority is very likely to disappear - it would only need a slight decrease in nationalist vote share for that to happen, nothing of the scale of the collapse in the indy vote we seen in July. It's therefore probable we will have a unionist majority in Holyrood between 2026 and 2031, so again, that would put it to bed for the life at that parliament. If Holyrood can't pass a referendum bill then Westminster certainly won't.

Realistically then, we will be well into the 2030's before there's even a prospect of a second referendum. If there is a pro-indy majority in Holyrood and amongst Scottish MP's in Westminster from 2031 onwards another referendum could very well pass another bill through. Almost twenty years will have passed by then, that's certainly a generation by any measure. 

But who can say what the political landscape will look like in the 2030's. The only thing we can say for sure is that it will be very different than it is today, with new leaders across the board. What I think is more likely is that Scotland becomes like Quebec, who had a very close independence vote in 1995 - 50.5% to 49.5%. The nationalist movement remains there and is very vocal, but there is no realistic chance of another referendum. 

There has been a pro-independence majority of Scottish MPs and MSPs for almost all of the last ten years and no referendum was granted.

How would you respond to this question from a recent poll?

“Thinking about the balance of power between the Westminster Parliament and Scottish Parliament, which parliament should have power to call a referendum on Scottish independence?”