October Camp - What did we Learn?

[forameus]

It showed largely what has always been the case, and what, surprisingly, was actually brought up by the main commentator on Saturday's game.  We are simply playing at a level of competition we're not equipped to deal with more often than not.  That's not necessarily a defeatist attitude, as football isn't as simple as that.  On our day, we can beat Croatia, Poland and Portugal home or away.  But if we have 100 days, very few of them are going to be our day.  The sides we're up against are seasoned at this level (maybe not Poland, but certainly Croatia and Poland) and are more comfortable playing there.  On average, we're going to lose home and away to Croatia and Portugal, and have it come down to who is less shit between ourselves and Poland.  We managed to get a creditable point against Portugal, but we'll likely still need to get a decent result in Poland to avoid relegation.

But...that's kind of to be expected.  I think we sit at that awkward place where we're a very competent League B side.  If we go into that pot, we're going to be amongst the favourites to win our group, and it can be considered a failure if we don't.  But once we do go up, we'll be very much favourites to go straight back down again. Maybe in future our young players can really develop and we'll improve that position, but in the next couple of years, I think that's basically our level.  It's shit to watch and experience, but unless we're outright embarrassed in the games - which I don't think we have, it's just been a base level of miserable - I don't think this has necessarily been the worst few months for us.  The record runs are inflated by the opponents we've had (some chosen, still bafflingly).

[joewarkfanclub]

28 minutes ago, forameus said:

It showed largely what has always been the case, and what, surprisingly, was actually brought up by the main commentator on Saturday's game.  We are simply playing at a level of competition we're not equipped to deal with more often than not.  That's not necessarily a defeatist attitude, as football isn't as simple as that.  On our day, we can beat Croatia, Poland and Portugal home or away.  But if we have 100 days, very few of them are going to be our day.  The sides we're up against are seasoned at this level (maybe not Poland, but certainly Croatia and Poland) and are more comfortable playing there.  On average, we're going to lose home and away to Croatia and Portugal, and have it come down to who is less shit between ourselves and Poland.  We managed to get a creditable point against Portugal, but we'll likely still need to get a decent result in Poland to avoid relegation.

But...that's kind of to be expected.  I think we sit at that awkward place where we're a very competent League B side.  If we go into that pot, we're going to be amongst the favourites to win our group, and it can be considered a failure if we don't.  But once we do go up, we'll be very much favourites to go straight back down again. Maybe in future our young players can really develop and we'll improve that position, but in the next couple of years, I think that's basically our level.  It's shit to watch and experience, but unless we're outright embarrassed in the games - which I don't think we have, it's just been a base level of miserable - I don't think this has necessarily been the worst few months for us.  The record runs are inflated by the opponents we've had (some chosen, still bafflingly).

Great post.

Exactly correct.

[Butters Scotch]

58 minutes ago, forameus said:

It showed largely what has always been the case, and what, surprisingly, was actually brought up by the main commentator on Saturday's game.  We are simply playing at a level of competition we're not equipped to deal with more often than not.  That's not necessarily a defeatist attitude, as football isn't as simple as that.  On our day, we can beat Croatia, Poland and Portugal home or away.  But if we have 100 days, very few of them are going to be our day.  The sides we're up against are seasoned at this level (maybe not Poland, but certainly Croatia and Poland) and are more comfortable playing there.  On average, we're going to lose home and away to Croatia and Portugal, and have it come down to who is less shit between ourselves and Poland.  We managed to get a creditable point against Portugal, but we'll likely still need to get a decent result in Poland to avoid relegation.

But...that's kind of to be expected.  I think we sit at that awkward place where we're a very competent League B side.  If we go into that pot, we're going to be amongst the favourites to win our group, and it can be considered a failure if we don't.  But once we do go up, we'll be very much favourites to go straight back down again. Maybe in future our young players can really develop and we'll improve that position, but in the next couple of years, I think that's basically our level.  It's shit to watch and experience, but unless we're outright embarrassed in the games - which I don't think we have, it's just been a base level of miserable - I don't think this has necessarily been the worst few months for us.  The record runs are inflated by the opponents we've had (some chosen, still bafflingly).

Agree with all of this but won't we need to beat Poland regardless due to the head to head or can it come down to goal difference if we are level on points?

[forameus]

Just now, Butters Scotch said:

Agree with all of this but won't we need to beat Poland regardless due to the head to head or can it come down to goal difference if we are level on points?

No idea to be honest.  I think I remember someone saying it was head-to-head, so yeah, need to beat them.  Hadn't paid enough attention to see they've already taken a point from Croatia, negating ours against Poland.  If they better our result against Croatia when they play Portugal, we're already relegated before we play them anyway.

In fact, unless I'm being really dense, there's no sequence of results remaining that we don't have to beat them, even if we beat Croatia

[PrestersKTID]

In the past year we've played (world ranking)

France (2)

Spain (3)

England (4)

Netherlands (7)

Portugal (8)

Croatia (12)

Germany (13)

Switzerland (15)

Poland (30)

Hungary (32)

Agree with earlier posts, realistically we're not going to win against these sides regularly . We might get the odd good/decent result. Spain, Portugal and Switzerland. But we've still given good acounts of ourselves against the dutch for 60 minutes, Croatia, Poland and Spain again. 

The only games we chucked properly were Germany and Hungary.

Then against sides more our level Finland we chucked 2 goals because we rung the changes and NI no excuses we were rotten. But against the Georgias, Cyprus, Norways we did the business when we needed it.

We should be around the 30th in the world mark Imo with scope to get top 20.

[craigkillie]

I don't actually agree entirely with that top post, in that I think these performances in this group have actually shown that we are pretty close to these League A teams. We could easily have taken something from all four games, and the only one in which we were obviously outclassed was in the Portugal away one. Obviously injuries always happen in football, but the fact that a team missing quite a few key starters has been able to do that suggests to me that it's a step this group is able to take.

[ClydeTon]

Between all four games, especially these two, we've been really competitive and unlucky.

 

Threw it away against the Poles, caved in to pressure in Lisbon, and then got unlucky in Croatia. We were solid on Tuesday and, defensively, probably our best effort since the Euro Qualifiers.

 

Gilmour was outstanding in both games, Doak looked good but lacked end product - also noticeably unsure when to/not to run down the line on Tuesday. Robertson ended up shouting at him nearly every time we were coming down the left.

McTominay was marked out of the game by Croatia, something we'll need to think about for next time.

Ralston was great. Apart from the Euros I've felt he's been good enough for us. He leaves everything on the park, every time.

Croatia looked really poor at the back, and Poland seemed a mostly even game.

4, maybe 6 points in November is very much possible if we learn from the mistakes of the previous games, as we did with Portugal.

[adamntg]

1 hour ago, forameus said:

No idea to be honest.  I think I remember someone saying it was head-to-head, so yeah, need to beat them.  Hadn't paid enough attention to see they've already taken a point from Croatia, negating ours against Poland.  If they better our result against Croatia when they play Portugal, we're already relegated before we play them anyway.

In fact, unless I'm being really dense, there's no sequence of results remaining that we don't have to beat them, even if we beat Croatia

If we beat Croatia we can catch either them or the Poles going into the last game, regardless of the other result.

[Skyline Drifter]

2 hours ago, forameus said:

No idea to be honest.  I think I remember someone saying it was head-to-head, so yeah, need to beat them.  Hadn't paid enough attention to see they've already taken a point from Croatia, negating ours against Poland.  If they better our result against Croatia when they play Portugal, we're already relegated before we play them anyway.

In fact, unless I'm being really dense, there's no sequence of results remaining that we don't have to beat them, even if we beat Croatia

First tie breaker is the head to heads, then overall group GD, away goals, wins, away wins, disciplinary record. And if all that was still level then Poland (& Croatia) finish above us due to finishing above us in the previous Nations League.

So yes, you're right, we have to win in Poland to avoid bottom spot.

54 minutes ago, adamntg said:

If we beat Croatia we can catch either them or the Poles going into the last game, regardless of the other result.

Well yes, but the only way to catch either would still involve us beating the Poles. There's no way to finish higher than 4th in this group that doesn't involve winning in Poland.

If we get 4 points by beating Croatia and drawing in Poland then we'll finish on 5 points. That might match Poland if Portugal beat them but they'll still finish 3rd on head to head having won at Hampden. If they lose 10-0 in Portugal and draw 0-0 with us they'll still be 3rd. 

We could in theory still win both games and finish 2nd in the group to Portugal. We'd need to either beat Croatia by two goals or 1-0. Or 2-1 and have a better overall GD in other games (so we'd likely need Portugal to beat them by more than one goal).

In fact if we win both games and Poland were to beat Portugal we'd end up in a three way tie for 2nd which would get into complex GD calculations. We'd probably need to win at least one of the two by more than one goal to win that tie break though.

Come what may though, we're 4th if we don't win in Poland.  Poland coming from 3-1 down to get a draw v Croatia kept alive our outside chance of 2nd but meant there was no way to sneak 3rd with a draw in Poland.

 

Edited 21 hours ago by Skyline Drifter

[Pie Of The Month]

4 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

In fact if we win both games and Poland were to beat Portugal we'd end up in a three way tie for 2nd which would get into complex GD calculations. We'd probably need to win at least one of the two by more than one goal to win that tie break though.

 

 

In that case it would come down to the first tie breaker which is results between the 3 teams involved and goal difference wouldn't come into it as it would be

Croatia 7pts (win and draw v Poland, win v Scotland)
Scotland 6pts (wins v Croatia and Poland)
Poland 4pts (win v Scotland and draw v Croatia)

 

[Skyline Drifter]

16 minutes ago, Pie Of The Month said:

In that case it would come down to the first tie breaker which is results between the 3 teams involved and goal difference wouldn't come into it as it would be

Croatia 7pts (win and draw v Poland, win v Scotland)
Scotland 6pts (wins v Croatia and Poland)
Poland 4pts (win v Scotland and draw v Croatia)

 

Fair enough. To be honest, as you've clearly noted, I didn't actually look at the head to heads across the three teams. So we can only get 2nd with two wins combined with Portugal not losing to Poland. We can only avoid relegation potentially by winning in Poland. If we do win in Poland we'll be 3rd as long as we either win by more than one goals or win by one goal but don't lose on MD5 by more than they do.

Edited 21 hours ago by Skyline Drifter

[Butters Scotch]

3 hours ago, craigkillie said:

I don't actually agree entirely with that top post, in that I think these performances in this group have actually shown that we are pretty close to these League A teams. We could easily have taken something from all four games, and the only one in which we were obviously outclassed was in the Portugal away one. Obviously injuries always happen in football, but the fact that a team missing quite a few key starters has been able to do that suggests to me that it's a step this group is able to take.

Thing is, these nations league groups aren't really a true reflection of where teams rank in Europe.

England obviously should be in group A

Austria, Turkey have got similar level but slightly better teams than Scotland IMO.

Even league C, Scotland would find it difficult to beat the likes of Romania, Sweden, Slovakia and would have evenly matched games. North Macedonia slightly lower of quality than ourselves.

You could argue Scotland, Hungary, Bosnia, Israel, Serbia all really are pot B teams with the odd promotion here and there.

[Ewanandmoreagain]

21 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

No McGinn?

Sorry , McGunn replaces Christie  !

[Gordopolis]

1 hour ago, Ewanandmoreagain said:

Sorry , McGunn replaces Christie  !

With Ginn in goals

[printer]

19 hours ago, joewarkfanclub said:

Gordon is our best keeper.

Souttar has played himself into a start in November.

Kenny McLean was MOTM last night and is a far better footballer than most give him credit for.

Tony Ralston is serviceable at RB when he isnt being hung out to dry by those inside him. Still limited on the ball and needs to work on his forward passing.

Doak, Gauld and Morgan all have something to offer. 

Steve Clarke isnt an idiot and has analysed the poor Euro performances and is evolving the team/squad.

He's been underrated by many for a while. I have found that a bit strange, he's always looked a very good footballer to me and the fact Steve Clarke clearly rates him highly has suggested I'm probably right.

Doak, on the other hand, I'm not sure about. There's a bit of "flatters to deceive" about him. I expect to see him relegated to the bench and used as an impact sub when we have a full squad available. 

[velo army]

13 hours ago, printer said:

He's been underrated by many for a while. I have found that a bit strange, he's always looked a very good footballer to me and the fact Steve Clarke clearly rates him highly has suggested I'm probably right.

Doak, on the other hand, I'm not sure about. There's a bit of "flatters to deceive" about him. I expect to see him relegated to the bench and used as an impact sub when we have a full squad available. 

I agree with this too. Doak has obviously shortcomings (not a height joke) that have been wishfully waved away. His final ball isn't very good and for me that's a basic skill rather than something to be developed over time. Hopefully I'm proven wrong, but he seems quick of feet and slow of thought.