This shows why science and medicine journalists should be dealing with this rather than political ones.
First, Humphreys (assuming he did give the prof an easy ride) presumably doesn’t know where to start with complex modelling and couldn’t ask any pertinent questions.
Second, the spectator lad seems to be trying to pin the prof down to a gaffe in a sound bite and is implicitly criticising him for not being able to see into the future. If a worst case scenario of 250,000 deaths is predicted, and only 500 people died, that doesn’t necessarily mean the prediction was “wrong” (although it could have been) but that the factors needed for a worst case scenario didn’t materialise.
If I’ve read the March paper right (and I’m not an expert) there are predictions for 5,600 to 550,000 deaths depending on some unknown variables, only some of which can be affected by policy.
The point is not to accurately quantify exact numbers, but to show how numbers will probably be affected by policy choices.
I would hope that the government isn’t just relying on one paper. Not sure what you mean about real data being secret. There are some freely published studies, some paywalled and maybe some govt and/or pharma backed ones being kept confidential, sure. I don’t think most of the main stats could be kept secret in this country but some lab stuff could be.
Completely agree that the 0.5m was quoted by the government as a tool of persuasion. I don’t think it was included in the study for that purpose though. I think it was in the study to scare the government.