Newbornbairn Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 So why do you think the papers are having seemingly a news blackout on this? Nobody (apart from a few dozen internet obsessives) gives a shit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeGas Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Good to see Scottish from different political parties unite and promote the Union. Good job by Mr Darling being at the Tory gig the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Nobody (apart from a few dozen internet obsessives) gives a shit? And yet, they obsess over every other poll in detail, including the last one from the same organisation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanny's army Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 "The trend is clearly downwards"? You're going to have to explain that. Also, the link explains the difference. And of course the samples are different. They were taken at different times! 43 So why do you think the papers are having seemingly a news blackout on this? I have to explain what downwards means? OK. In the first graph, support for independence has dropped from 32% to 23% (or 28% downwards in real terms) and the second one 43% to 35% (or 19% downwards) in the space of a year. Why doesn't the media care? You should be thankful they're not reporting it as the most logical way of reading the data is that at least two-thirds of Scots do not support independence and support is falling rapidly. Indeed, I'm perplexed as to what you see as the "good" news for independence is in here? The author of the link doesn't understand statistics it would seem so their argument has more holes than a set of bagpipes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 I have to explain what downwards means? OK. In the first graph, support for independence has dropped from 32% to 23% (or 28% downwards in real terms) and the second one 43% to 35% (or 19% downwards) in the space of a year. Why doesn't the media care? You should be thankful they're not reporting it as the most logical way of reading the data is that at least two-thirds of Scots do not support independence and support is falling rapidly. Indeed, I'm perplexed as to what you see as the "good" news for independence is in here? The author of the link doesn't understand statistics it would seem so their argument has more holes than a set of bagpipes. The nat clown collective in here have been pulling the heid aff it on the back of a bunch of stats that show their campaign is completely fucked. What a bunch of fucking idiots they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 I have to explain what downwards means? OK. In the first graph, support for independence has dropped from 32% to 23% (or 28% downwards in real terms) and the second one 43% to 35% (or 19% downwards) in the space of a year. Why doesn't the media care? You should be thankful they're not reporting it as the most logical way of reading the data is that at least two-thirds of Scots do not support independence and support is falling rapidly. Indeed, I'm perplexed as to what you see as the "good" news for independence is in here? The author of the link doesn't understand statistics it would seem so their argument has more holes than a set of bagpipes. No, you're right, its all terrible news. Support for independence is plummeting. Its all over. Although weirdly, I didn't know you could make a trend using ONLY the two most recent samples, especially when there are at least 3 samples available there. What I'm seeing there is independence on 35%, despite it being the "worst" year for the SNP, despite it being full of "spectacular own goals", and with support for the Union apparently at its strongest. I also see that the support for change massively outweighs support for the status quo. How is that "Vote No, Get Nothing" message going to play next year? It looks to me like Independence support is up from where it was 2 years ago according to that poll, which of course, like every other poll, is meaningless, but maybe you have to ask yourself why it is that other polls get covered in masses of detail, whereas this one was skirted over? Why is that, if its such good news for the Union? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Incidentally, its been said that the Unionists are running out of ammo. Pish I say! Independence: Yes vote ‘may threaten post offices’ Arrrgh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Day Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Why don't they just come out with a headline like: "Absolutely everything in an independent Scotland would be far too hard and near-impossible"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pink Freud Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Incidentally, its been said that the Unionists are running out of ammo. Pish I say! Independence: Yes vote ‘may threaten post offices’ Arrrgh! Am I not right in thinking that its going to be privatised under Westminster plans? Now, call me old fashioned and lefty if you will, but that strikes me as a lot more concerning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanny's army Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 No, you're right, its all terrible news. Support for independence is plummeting. Its all over. Although weirdly, I didn't know you could make a trend using ONLY the two most recent samples, especially when there are at least 3 samples available there. You can make a trend as much as you like, it's the statistical significance of that trend which can be questioned. Wouldn't it be great to have more than 2 or 3 data points? Oh look, graph 1 has 15 data points. That's handy. What does it tell us? Support for independence is at its lowest in 15 years. What I'm seeing there is independence on 35%, despite it being the "worst" year for the SNP From a pure statistics point of view, support for independence is between 23% and 35%. This is a wide gap of nearly 50% in real terms yet you've chosen to pick the highest number. The words "rose-tinted" spring to mind. On why the news don't cover it - I don't know and I don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oht Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 I did wonder why Xbl was posting that stuff but i think it's become clear - he didn't understand it. Sanny's army handing out a schooling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 You can make a trend as much as you like, it's the statistical significance of that trend which can be questioned. Wouldn't it be great to have more than 2 or 3 data points? Oh look, graph 1 has 15 data points. That's handy. What does it tell us? Support for independence is at its lowest in 15 years. From a pure statistics point of view, support for independence is between 23% and 35%. This is a wide gap of nearly 50% in real terms yet you've chosen to pick the highest number. The words "rose-tinted" spring to mind. On why the news don't cover it - I don't know and I don't care. There are 3 data points for reference on the second graph. If the trend was downwards, then each one would be successively lower. Is this the case? I do like your "dont know" denial of reality. We both know, don't we? Also, seems to me that a lot more support independence than support the status quo. You've fallen into that interesting unionist habit of assuming that everyone who wants devolution max will vote for the status quo. Again, we both know that isnt the case, because devolution max isn't on offer. But of course, that doesn't make a nice story, does it? Looks to me like a lot more people support independence than support the status quo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeGas Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 You missed the part at the bottom where it says the numbers are from a small sample and therefore not statistically relevant. Do you know what size of sample is acceptable for statistical relevance? 30. Only 30. So, less than 30 people answered a question and therefore it supports independence? Can't possibly see any fault in this. "Less than 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Incidentally, its been said that the Unionists are running out of ammo. Pish I say! Independence: Yes vote ‘may threaten post offices’ Arrrgh! An excellent reason to vote Yes. Scotland needs to modernise and to get their state out of these industries in respect of which the state needs have no continuing presence. The UK is holding us back with their silly traditions that have no place in a modern western liberal democracy. Vote Yes. End tax-funded letters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heidthebaw Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 An excellent reason to vote Yes. Scotland needs to modernise and to get their state out of these industries in respect of which the state needs have no continuing presence. The UK is holding us back with their silly traditions that have no place in a modern western liberal democracy. Vote Yes. End tax-funded letters. Feck off Love Postman Pat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tryfield Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Vote Yes. End tax-funded letters. And probably cut jobs as income falls and the need to be more competitive rises. Could be a quandary for postal workers, if any details are forthcoming prior to the referendum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heidthebaw Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 The post offie is supposed to be a universal service. Even now that is a joke as folk in highlands and islands are penalised already by organisations via higher charges due to their location. FFS we're a wee island. what will happen when the UK service is privatised is high density areas will be cherry picked by DHL et al and the non profitable routes probably given to the Cubs or some other charity to run delivery service. Some things shouldn't be run to make a proift for private shareholders. The bit that makes a profit for Royal Mail is the parcel delivery business that's what the private sector is after. Well feck them my tax money build it and they can get to hell. Vote Yes and roll on a Scottish Mail Service. Neo liberal capitalism-Just Say No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 I know a guy who's helping Yes and I have no reason to believe that he is lying, but he tells me all the internal polls they are doing have the undecided vote really high. Often 50%! Still plenty to play for and both campaigns will plonder on with little interest for most people until about spring 2014. Folk will then start to think about it further and instead of being something they skip in the press, they will begin to really focus on it and what consqueneces it may have for them. I have no idea if Yes can win or not. I think over 35% and if Ladbrokes are still offering evens for that is an absolute bargain though. The Yes vote will certainly be more than 35% without a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Bojangles Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 An excellent reason to vote Yes. Scotland needs to modernise and to get their state out of these industries in respect of which the state needs have no continuing presence. The UK is holding us back with their silly traditions that have no place in a modern western liberal democracy. Vote Yes. End tax-funded letters. I would encourage you to read "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy" by Greg Palast. It was one of the first places I saw someone question the Bush-Gore Florida Democrat voter purge. He also talks about what happened in nations which were forced to privatise services. He especially talks about water which is something I know is dear to the Lib Dem's hearts. Basically, the cost of water skyrocketed in a short space of time (1000% or so). The poor were forced to ration water or look to other sources while the company was making huge profit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 I would encourage you to read "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy" by Greg Palast. It was one of the first places I saw someone question the Bush-Gore Florida Democrat voter purge. He also talks about what happened in nations which were forced to privatise services. He especially talks about water which is something I know is dear to the Lib Dem's hearts. Basically, the cost of water skyrocketed in a short space of time (1000% or so). The poor were forced to ration water or look to other sources while the company was making huge profit. I think I'll pass. Snail mail is a dying industry. We don't *need* a courier to deliver letters for wider society through state bodies, for the same reason that we don't need telegrams any more, or the same reason we don't use pigeon carriers. We live in an electronic age where even the fax machine should have killed this shit, let alone things like email. Preserving these services in the name of jobs, or cost, when they are as a means of communication in and of itself redundant for virtually all purposes, is backwards. It prevents real social progress. Of all the utilities the Royal Mail is most analogous to British Telecom. You know, that state-owned entity that used to make houses share phone lines and which took several months to install a line. As for your lazy stuff about water, Lib Dem policy is to have Scottish Water put into a not-for-profit entity to release investment capital liabilities. It's not a "privatisation". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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