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Latest Polls and Latest Odds


Lex

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See this poll of polls list. Shows the averages of all polls for each month this year. Shows support for YES going up every month and NO going down. At the current rate, YES would be in the lead by July.

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/yesscotland/pages/1744/attachments/original/1397117783/Independence_Polling_shows_Trend_is_towards_Yes_-_Nov_2013_to_Apr_2014_Yes-Panelbase.pdf?1397117783

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Latest poll from Panelbase

Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes: 47% No: 53% (exc dk) Very encouraging :thumsup2

So the last three PB polls have gone 40/41/40 - with the last two in reasonably quick succession? Again it simply demonstrates that there has been no significant movement in the few weeks. It does make a slight mockery of BT's press release which desperately wants everyone to beleive that the gap is 'widening' and it's comforting to see that PB has stuck around the 40% mark but there has been no movement in the last few weeks, nada.

A lot of the recent polls have indicated that the gender gap is killing Yes, I think the Wings PB poll showed Men at 52% in favour but only 35% of women in favour. Several other polls report similar findings.

Edited by renton
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So the last three PB polls have gone 40/41/40 - with the last two in reasonably quick succession? Again it simply demonstrates that there has been no significant movement in the few weeks. It does make a slight mockery of BT's press release which desperately wants everyone to beleive that the gap is 'widening' and it's comforting to see that PB has stuck around the 40% mark but there has been no movement in the last few weeks, nada.

A lot of the recent polls have indicated that the gender gap is killing Yes, I think the Wings PB poll showed Men at 52% in favour but only 35% of women in favour. Several other polls report similar findings.

Yes, the childcare provision in the White Paper still has to resonate fully amongst women. This may only filter through during the actual campaign itself when it should be pushed more

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So the last three PB polls have gone 40/41/40 - with the last two in reasonably quick succession? Again it simply demonstrates that there has been no significant movement in the few weeks. It does make a slight mockery of BT's press release which desperately wants everyone to beleive that the gap is 'widening' and it's comforting to see that PB has stuck around the 40% mark but there has been no movement in the last few weeks, nada.

A lot of the recent polls have indicated that the gender gap is killing Yes, I think the Wings PB poll showed Men at 52% in favour but only 35% of women in favour. Several other polls report similar findings.

Women are more intelligent though.

;)

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The Panelbase poll (which I would use with caution) shows that DKs are beginning to break but equally to both sides - that isn't good news for the Yes campaign.

Not quite, obviously, using with caution as it is a sub sample - but it broke 39/25/34 Y/N/geniunely not a fucking clues So it's breaking marginally in favour of Yes, to the point where (and yes it's not great methodology) asigning the various groups and excluding the genuine not a fucking clue brigae, the gap is down to one point.

Edited by renton
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Who are these "people" that aren't going to "stand for it"?

I'm sure Salmond said that there needs to be a generation between the referendums - ie 20 years or so.

There's no point in the Yes campaign calling for another vote after 2016 - it'll just piss people off/. They're not daft. I have no doubts they'll accept the result, whatever it may be.

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So, wait a minute.

You're saying that the ex UK defence secretary and ex Secretary General of NATO is not an expert on defence and international relations? Take a deep breath and listen to yourself for goodness sake, even for the Nat clown collective that is absolutely ridiculous.

The Supreme Allied commander you cite takes orders from the Secretary General, the post Lord Robertson held. Goodness me, one of the biggest loads of tripe I've read on here.

Was Churchill not an expert in defence either?

That is exactly what I am saying. When you can show me his qualifications that made him suitable for the SG post then I will evaluate his expertise in determining the military consequence of a YES vote, being a labour politician does not suffice. I also think that your argument would be better served if you understood the difference between the military structure of NATO, the strategic commands and the civilian elements. See here.

The NATO Secretary General is is the Alliance’s top international civil servant. This person is responsible for steering the process of consultation and decision-making in the Alliance and ensuring that decisions are implemented. The Secretary General is also NATO’s chief spokesperson and the head of the Organization’s International Staff.

So chief pen pusher and mouthpiece would appear to be the role. In this case, Lord Robertson is an expert just not on military matters.

Edited by strichener
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Is the President of the U.S.A a defence expert? David Cameron? Tony Blair? Or any other politician an expert in defence? .

No. That's the point. They tell the military what their aims are and the military figure out how to do it. Robertson is a career politician, not a military expert.

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We haven't even entered into the main campaign yet, which is still over 7 weeks away. Yet, we're getting a lot shoved down our throats already. I can't imagine how bad it will be when we really get into the meat of it. I still predict by the end of July. The yes campaign will have gathered enough support to win a vote, Once we get some real facts and figures out in the public domain.

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Nobody picked up on this over the page, so I will post it here:

The pro-UK Better Together campaign and Scottish Labour argue privately that since their main campaigns against independence have not yet started, the latest opinion polls only reflect a temporary public mood.
The pro-UK Better Together campaign and Scottish Labour argue privately that since their main campaigns against independence have not yet started, the latest opinion polls only reflect a temporary public mood.
The pro-UK Better Together campaign and Scottish Labour argue privately that since their main campaigns against independence have not yet started, the latest opinion polls only reflect a temporary public mood.
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Well I refer you to the rest of my post. Why are they trusted to make these decisions? Why not make the world be subject to Martial law?

People are putting trust in the leaders to seek the best advice available and to act on it. You cannot seriously be suggesting that the US president or UK PM is an expert in defence, economics, religion, social care, sport, cultural identity etc. etc. They have to make decisions on these things all the time but are in no way experts.

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I agree, but politicians are the ones left to make the decisions. Therefore Lord Robertson is in a better position to make these decisions than Joe Public.

Good job he is a lord...i wonder who voted for the abolition of the lords....mmm

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Well he is, not a lot can be done now. Anyway, how does this change things? He still had to make decisions on behalf of the electorate and NATO as a whole going by the advice and information he had at the time.

So if we cannot trust politicians to make decisions for us on defence issues because they are not experts, then will we be more happy accepting the decisions of the General in the frontline? Martial law?

waves to awra

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