Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[speckled tangerine]

Jim Murphy playing the victim card claiming that "hundreds" of storm troops chased him about on his vanity bullshit tour of Scotland- orchestrated "from the top".

Another no voter claimed that the lack of no posters in windows was because you'd have "eggs thrown at them".

We're the enemy within and combine this lack of grass roots no support with labour's last roll of the dice (don't know vote no), oh aye. They are fucking worried.

[QPSAFalkirkFirm]

Another no voter claimed that the lack of no posters in windows was because you'd have "eggs thrown at windows"

Maybe The Sun will have a free egg offer the morra

[Broken Algorithms]

I did the new poll too, signed up at the tail end of last week for Yougov. Largely about views on independence, the interests of the party with a few other matters.

[Jamaldo]

Jim Murphy playing the victim card claiming that "hundreds" of storm troops chased him about on his vanity bullshit tour of Scotland- orchestrated "from the top".

Another no voter claimed that the lack of no posters in windows was because you'd have "eggs thrown at them".

We're the enemy within and combine this lack of grass roots no support with labour's last roll of the dice (don't know vote no), oh aye. They are fucking worried.

He was trying to intimidate Fiona Hyslop as well. "Promise No voters won't be harassed on polling day Fiona".

The words of someone who believes they're going to lose.

[Casual Bystander]

Polled again by Yougov. Questions this time included things like are you able to speak freely about your opinion, have you fallen out with anyone and have you felt threated by the No Campaign.

This whole "shy yes" stuff they are trying to push is pretty pathetic. I could understand why those in the street might not want to say they are voting No, but phone or Internet polling? Nobody is "too scared" to give their opinion in those circumstances.

I heard Curtice greeting on BBC earlier, saying that the poll that had Yes well ahead must be completely ignored and that all the ones showing No in the lead were the real polls. It was a joy listening to him trying to justify it.

[Blaven]

Yeah this is the commonsense test I've been talking about.

To see it you need to take a step back.

For 2 years we've had both sides campaigning hard.

Neither side will rely on official pollsters - both are doing major private polling.

WQho has changed their strategy recently and to what extent?

Has that change been gradual or sharp?

Does it seem co-ordinated and part of a bigger story or does it smack of headless chicken.

Then you make assumptions about why that might be.

Look at Darling, Cameron on one side and Salmond on the other.

Which if them looks like a man certain of success and which of them looks haunted as though their careers were on the verge of collapse?

This is my very simple gut feel test or commonsense test.

It tells me that BT know they are losing and that they are losing heavily in the most populated areas.

It tells me that two things about Yes. Firstly that they are winning well and secondly that Salmond has the killer instinct to absolutely humiliate BT to ensure our independence mandate is as strong as possible for the forthcoming negotiations.

I have no proof of any of this of course but the above is my growing gut feeling whilst retaining some apprehension about calling this too early. If I was completely impartial looking at this from say Sweden, I'd conclude that Yes were about to win a landslide.

Feel free to pick holes in my amateur analysis.

Could not agree more.

The sheer desperation from Cameron's bended knee greeting to Darling, Murphy and Carmichael's greeting about being bullied, just reeks of defeat.

Brown in the other hand, is lapping up being at the top and looks like he really thinks he's going to be the saviour of the union and that that will get him back into No10. Oh how saggy will his Jowls be on Friday.

[Mr. Bojangles]

This whole "shy yes" stuff they are trying to push is pretty pathetic. I could understand why those in the street might not want to say they are voting No, but phone or Internet polling? Nobody is "too scared" to give their opinion in those circumstances.

I heard Curtice greeting on BBC earlier, saying that the poll that had Yes well ahead must be completely ignored and that all the ones showing No in the lead were the real polls. It was a joy listening to him trying to justify it.

Well....part of the yougov poll asked if I'd ever used illegal drugs, who my dealer was, how often I use them etc. I could completely understand being a shy yes in that circumstance. But for the referendum in an online poll? Nah. Doesn't make sense.

[Ludo*1]

Dundee and Dundee United Mad's polling results (Thus far) are:

Dundee Mad

41 YES (73%)

15 NO (27%)


United Mad

39 YES (81%)

9 NO (19%)

[Hedgecutter]

Canadian TV News just now going with the second headline story that Scotland is facing a generational gap with young voters much more likely to vote Yes unlike their elders. Not exactly news to us but interesting to see how much coverage it's getting over here. Showed the English love bombing Scotland from Trafalgar and Cameron in Aberdeen unknowingly appealing to pensioners to think about their grand kids before thinking of themselves.

I'd say about 75% of people who have clocked that I'm Scottish have asked if I've made my mind up yet with a genuine interest (without trying to swing any opinion).

Edited September 16, 2014 by Hedgecutter

[Guest]

Dundee and Dundee United Mad's polling results (Thus far) are:

Dundee Mad

41 YES (73%)

15 NO (27%)

United Mad

39 YES (81%)

9 NO (19%)

Very surprised to see a higher percentage of Yessers from United. I thought Dundee was the most pro-independence place in Scotland.

[vikingTON]

Very surprised to see a higher percentage of Yessers from United. I thought Dundee was the most pro-independence place in Scotland.

Dundee have a fair section of rabid Unionist bigots like ex-chairman Harry McLean though.

[craigkillie]

Yeah this is the commonsense test I've been talking about.

To see it you need to take a step back.

For 2 years we've had both sides campaigning hard.

Neither side will rely on official pollsters - both are doing major private polling.

WQho has changed their strategy recently and to what extent?

Has that change been gradual or sharp?

Does it seem co-ordinated and part of a bigger story or does it smack of headless chicken.

Then you make assumptions about why that might be.

Look at Darling, Cameron on one side and Salmond on the other.

Which if them looks like a man certain of success and which of them looks haunted as though their careers were on the verge of collapse?

This is my very simple gut feel test or commonsense test.

It tells me that BT know they are losing and that they are losing heavily in the most populated areas.

It tells me that two things about Yes. Firstly that they are winning well and secondly that Salmond has the killer instinct to absolutely humiliate BT to ensure our independence mandate is as strong as possible for the forthcoming negotiations.

I have no proof of any of this of course but the above is my growing gut feeling whilst retaining some apprehension about calling this too early. If I was completely impartial looking at this from say Sweden, I'd conclude that Yes were about to win a landslide.

Feel free to pick holes in my amateur analysis.

While I'd like this to be the case, I also think that the No camp would be shitting themselves even if their private polling was saying something like 47% Yes. Their reaction doesn't necessarily mean that they're behind, it just means that they know it's going to be close.

[SuperCaleyGoBallistic]

Canadian TV News just now going with the second headline story that Scotland is facing a generational gap with young voters much more likely to vote Yes unlike their elders. Not exactly news to us but interesting to see how much coverage it's getting over here. Showed the English love bombing Scotland from Trafalgar and Cameron in Aberdeen unknowingly appealing to pensioners to think about their grand kids before thinking of themselves.

I'd say about 75% of people who have clocked that I'm Scottish have asked if I've made my mind up yet with a genuine interest (without trying to swing any opinion).

When I was in Berlin last week the first thing people asked about after hearing I was Scottish was the referendum. People seemed genuinely interested about the whole thing.

[Confidemus]

What I absolutely love is that despite No Thanks orchestrating the most vindictive, nasty, immoral, underhanded, vicious, lie-strewn, desperate campaign in political history, despite them chucking everything including the kitchen sink at us, despite them calling on their friends in big business, world politics and the media at us, despite their best efforts to frighten Scotland into a No vote, Yes are not only neck and neck, but look likely to win.

It fills me full of pride and utter, utter joy.

[Blaven]

Very surprised to see a higher percentage of Yessers from United. I thought Dundee was the most pro-independence place in Scotland.

Aye what side is Lorraine Kelly coming down on?

[Blaven]

What I absolutely love is that despite No Thanks orchestrating the most vindictive, nasty, immoral, underhanded, vicious, lie-strewn, desperate campaign in political history, despite them chucking everything including the kitchen sink at us, despite them calling on their friends in big business, world politics and the media at us, despite their best efforts to frighten Scotland into a No vote, Yes are not only neck and neck, but look likely to win.

It fills me full of pride and utter, utter joy.

Don't forget to highlight world " leaders ".

Scotland says

[Dunning1874]

When I was in Berlin last week the first thing people asked about after hearing I was Scottish was the referendum. People seemed genuinely interested about the whole thing.

Aye, I was just in Vilnius and it was everyone's first topic of conversation.

Ipsos-Mori phoned last night, they've got a poll coming out tomorrow. The guy I spoke to said they were struggling to get enough young people to have an even representation of all demographics, probably what happens when you're conducting polls via landline phones.

[renton]

Aye, I was just in Vilnius and it was everyone's first topic of conversation.

Ipsos-Mori phoned last night, they've got a poll coming out tomorrow. The guy I spoke to said they were struggling to get enough young people to have an even representation of all demographics, probably what happens when you're conducting polls via landline phones.

Yeah, they've has that problem through the entire campaign.

[John Lambies Doos]

So we are concluding that the polls are way out? Ie they mainly contain old people, people with landlines and do not contain the additional 400k that are registered to vote?

And they are still showing 50 50?

Mmmmmmm

[Granny Danger]

I was listening to a part of a programme on Radio Scotland yesterday with Curtis and Kellner (?) when they said that only one polling organisation relies heavily on telephone polls and that they use mobiles as well as landlines.

Not sure where they get the contact numbers from.