Casual Bystander Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I still contest that the pollsters have missed a trick. There is a huge undercurrent of people that would refuse to be polled for numerous reasons and the majority of them are likely to be Yes voters. Whether that majority will be enough to tip the balance who knows. I think it's these people, those who had stayed off the polling register since the poll tax or who had become disillusioned by politics, that are the real reason the 3 stooges made their way North. It's also why the stupid of the Miliband brothers has been making efforts up here as these people come from the traditional Labour heartlands of the disadvantaged and poverty stricken. Also I just don't believe there are these "shy no's" who feel unable to give their support to the No campaign on Internet or phone polls. In the street? Perhaps, but then I know many people who would simply not answer in the street full stop, regardless of their opinion. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banterous Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Your painful and obvious butthurt about Salmond is absolutely hilarious. No matter the result of the vote, he'll be in power in Scotland for at least another 2 years. I think you under estimate the man's self-interest which is sad. He's a politician fgs. they're all liars; they can't help themselves they claim to represent the aims and aspirations of millions of individuals. Are you a fresher or a second year? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I suppose if you'd said to me a month ago that we'd be going in at 48-49% in the polls, I'd have bit your hand off. the fact that the Yes vote held up through the last week as well has to be a positive. It's going to be down to those newly registered voters I think. How closely will they follow the trend of the polls? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MONKMAN Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 f**k it, just stuck a ton on Yes at 3/1 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banterous Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I assume you liked it. Pity John Logie Baird didn't get a nod too. "David you're talking to me by virtue of another great Scot". He missed a trick eh? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I just heard from a source within the SNP who i can't quote but you're probably right. Fair dues What the f**k are you talking about? The surveys aren't conducted by folk 'dressed as red coats' because no human conducts the surveys. All three are online pollsters and the information is collected electronically, and the panels are volunteers for that reason, rath than being randomly stopped in the street as you would by, for example, TNS. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Heres a really good article re. Scottish Polls http://emeraldnewsnetwork.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/something-fishy-in-the-scottish-polls/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The Adam Smith reference because it sounded a bit small minded. I can't explain it. It would be preferable to talk about the here and now rather than talking about our great place in history. You have absolutely no grasp on modern economics. Both Smith's and Keynes' work are still considered highly relevant even in today's markets. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Heres a really good article re. Scottish Polls http://emeraldnewsnetwork.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/something-fishy-in-the-scottish-polls/ Offt I await the seethe and bitter condemnation of that article. While it certainly has a fairly pro-independence spin to it, it finishes with the quote... Adding the undecided votes on the 18th it is not altogether unlikely that the Yes vote may indeed reach 60% and over. Loyalist meltdown in .. 3 .. 2 .. 1 .. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banterous Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 What the f**k are you talking about? The surveys aren't conducted by folk 'dressed as red coats' because no human conducts the surveys. All three are online pollsters and the information is collected electronically, and the panels are volunteers for that reason, rath than being randomly stopped in the street as you would by, for example, TNS. Don't get upset. Someone was on telling me they'd conducted a phone survey the other day and I didn't know that these were online surveys till you educated me. Calm down calm down 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I just heard from a source within the SNP who i can't quote but you're probably right. f**k me it's deepthroat. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 As VT indicated previously quite a lot of Romney-esq behaviour on display here unfortunately. If most, if not all, of the polls are looking like 48/52 then I'm afraid that looks like the most likely outcome at the moment. It doesn't. It means the pollsters are all getting the same results. Even if we accept that these results are accurate and correctly weighted for turnout,demographics etc then we have the undecideds to account for. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banterous Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) You have absolutely no grasp on modern economics. Both Smith's and Keynes' work are still considered highly relevant even in today's markets. I studied Keynesian economics at University but that was irrelevant to the subject under discussion and came across as a bit small minded. I know you need everything explained in detail sooooo "small minded" because BT weren't questioning the ability of Scotland to manage our economy and he referred to the past rather than the present. online conversations - explain all details....leave nothing inferred or implied................. Edited September 16, 2014 by Banterous 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 One thing, Opinium weight by 2010 recalled vote, Survation and ICM by 2011. both YG and PB have weird splits in their SNP weighting (the former by 2010-2011 Nat-Nats and Lab-nats, the latter introduced the recent EU elections as a corrective function). It's probably just a convergence of the stars, Opinium finding more Labour Yes than the others on the night, Survation's notoriously fickle 16-24 sample staying relatively stable, but for all of them to converge nicely to within a 3 point range, from 48 to 50% Got to admit, that's impressive. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banterous Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 One thing, Opinium weight by 2010 recalled vote, Survation and ICM by 2011. both YG and PB have weird splits in their SNP weighting (the former by 2010-2011 Nat-Nats and Lab-nats, the latter introduced the recent EU elections as a corrective function). It's probably just a convergence of the stars, Opinium finding more Labour Yes than the others on the night, Survation's notoriously fickle 16-24 sample staying relatively stable, but for all of them to converge nicely to within a 3 point range, from 48 to 50% Got to admit, that's impressive. Did you study Stats/Maths at Uni? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Did you study Stats/Maths at Uni? No, does it show? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 f**k me it's deepthroat. That made me spit out my tea. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banterous Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 No, does it show? No the opposite. It's something that I'm struggling with atm but I'll get there.....hopefully. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I studied Keynesian economics at University .. Aye, sure you did. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I didn't know that - I've just checked the headline figures on here. Does that not make it even more strange? No. It suggests that the polls aren't actually the same figures at all and that therefore it is vanishingly unlikely that they are colluding to produce the same figures. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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