Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[pandarilla]

I studied Keynesian economics at University but that was irrelevant to the subject under discussion and came across as a bit small minded. I know you need everything explained in detail sooooo

"small minded" because BT weren't questioning the ability of Scotland to manage our economy and he referred to the past rather than the present.

online conversations - explain all details....leave nothing inferred or implied.................

No but plenty of No voters are...

They represent what's been referred to as a lack of self-confidence in Scotland.

[Ad Lib]

Still voting Yes?

Yep.

[dorlomin]

As a rule of thumb polls and dont knows tend to break towards the safe option in the last couple of days. I am pretty surprised that No has not a bigger lead.

In terms of "shy no's" Ithe above is one of the reasons you get things like "shy no's" or "shy Conservatives", people who dont know or think they will vote for something they feel is risky then have a change of heart in the polling booth. This is why political parties, companies and the like work more with focus groups than raw polling. People tell pollster what they want to think about themselves, people might want to think they are liberal minded or want a dramatic change then not follow through when the x is there to be made.

That said the sheer strength of emotions in this election makes things hard to gauge.

Squeeky bum time.

Edited September 16, 2014 by dorlomin

[LongTimeLurker]

Even if we accept that these results are accurate and correctly weighted for turnout,demographics etc then we have the undecideds to account for.

...who could conceivably follow John Reid's advice and break something like 9:1 for No, which combined with a significantly lower than expected turnout would skew things the opposite way from from what most of you would want on here. The polls could prove to have been misleading in either direction as the ICM guy was hinting at, because it's very difficult for the pollsters to get a proper handle on a one-off referendum when the electorate isn't responding in the way they normally would.

[Banterous]

Aye, sure you did.

So many assumptions with no evid......

Yeah sure bud

[Banterous]

No but plenty of No voters are...

They represent what's been referred to as a lack of self-confidence in Scotland.

Have unique thoughts mate please eh? It's about looking after our economic interests and not taking blind risks. Next up you'll say "it'll be tough but we can leave a great legacy". Thanks but naw thanks

[renton]

...who could conceivably follow John Reid's advice and break something like 9:1 for No, which combined with a significantly lower than expected turnout would skew things the opposite way from from what most of you would want on here. The polls could prove to have been misleading in either direction as the ICM guy was hinting at, because it's very difficult for the pollsters to get a proper handle on a one-off referendum when the electorate isn't responding in the way they normally would.

Yeah, there is a lot going on here, we all assume a massive turnout but a smaller than expected turnout could conceivably bring in differential voting and who is going to beneift from that? depends who stays home. That undersampled part of the population, which way will they jump? Or are the pollster picking up enough of them to render the exercise moot?

[dorlomin]

No. It suggests that the polls aren't actually the same figures at all and that therefore it is vanishingly unlikely that they are colluding to produce the same figures.

A systematic error by 1.5% could throw the polls on the wrong side of the vote. That is well within the margin of error and given there may be a 15% plus higher turn out than usual, then I would say there is a good chance of systemic methodological errors in all polling methods. They are shooting their weightings at GE and Hollyrood elections for calibration.

Either side winning by 5% remains within the realms of possibility here.

[Granny Danger]

If opinion polls were always correct we wouldn't need elections. Too many variables on a poll that's completely different from anything else we've ever seen.

16/17 year olds voting.

People registering to vote that's never voted before.

Highest ever level of voters registered.

Higher level of campaigning than any election I can remember.

Greater use of social media and greater numbers of social media users than ever before.

This doesn't mean I think it's necessarily going to be YES, but it means that I'm not convinced of the accuracy of the polls. Certainly it's no reason for us to be despondent.

[Casual Bystander]

So many assumptions with no evid......

As Internet claims are as worthless as Bitter together promises, one can only go on what they read. As it is, you have certainly failed to convince me of your intellectual prowess when discussing economic matters up until now.

What is even more suspicious is that you suddenly make this claim 400 posts in when there have been numerous other economic discussions and ample opportunity for you to do so before.

Of course the fact that I graduated from university with a 2:1 in International Relations then did a further Masters in Psychology would be irrelevant for me to mention now as it would be dismissed as quickly as I have dismissed your claims.

[pandarilla]

Have unique thoughts mate please eh? It's about looking after our economic interests and not taking blind risks. Next up you'll say "it'll be tough but we can leave a great legacy". Thanks but naw thanks

What? Just because its been said before I shouldn't say it? You're seriously weird.

Which bit did you not like?

- I know a couple of uni pals who don't think Scotland is rich enough to go it alone. There are plenty of too wee, too poor No voters.

- historically Scottish culture has had a lack of self-confidence. This isn't new (hence its not an 'original thought').

[John Lambies Doos]

If we believe the polls then there are two things Yes have in their favour.

1. These missing voters, hunch is mainly yes, not registered with polling companies. .. possibly 300k

2. Generalising slightly here... but all Yes voters will vote, not sure I can say same thing about No

Also, just to note, private polling on ground seems to favour Yes... and since there has been no real change in polls for c. 1 wk now, u could assume no change in ground... Therefore a Yes is still possible

[dorlomin]

This doesn't mean I think it's necessarily going to be YES, but it means that I'm not convinced of the accuracy of the polls. Certainly it's no reason for us to be despondent.

Thus we stand on the precipice.

[AberdeenBud]

Banterous must be one of the worst trolls in the history of the internet.

[Casual Bystander]

If we believe the polls then there are two things Yes have in their favour.

1. These missing voters, hunch is mainly yes, not registered with polling companies. .. possibly 300k

2. Generalising slightly here... but all Yes voters will vote, not sure I can say same thing about No

Also, just to note, private polling on ground seems to favour Yes... and since there has been no real change in polls for c. 1 wk now, u could assume no change in ground... Therefore a Yes is still possible

I think it will be an even split between the camps when it comes to those who don't vote.

What will be interesting is whether there suddenly become "incidents" at places expected to vote Yes. Power cuts, accidental flooding, door keys lost, etc. Reduction in staff so that it takes longer to process resulting in turn out dropping.

I am not suggesting that will happen, I am just saying that if there are "accidents and incidents" (as Paul Simon sang) then one might suggest foul play.

[Casual Bystander]

Banterous must be one of the worst trolls in the history of the internet.

But he has a mole, on the inside of the SNP party, don't you know?

[Granny Danger]

Banterous must be one of the worst trolls in the history of the internet.

No, the fact that people who know he's trolling yet still engage with him means he's a very good troll.

[John Lambies Doos]

I think it will be an even split between the camps when it comes to those who don't vote.

Not sure

I was in Dortmund last wk for match, mostly Yes.. I spoke to two Nos, they basically said that they may not bother voting..conscious thing

[Casual Bystander]

Not sure

I was in Dortmund last wk for match, mostly Yes.. I spoke to two Nos, they basically said that they may not bother voting..conscious thing

To be utterly brutal I think that there is a huge support for the Yes campaign in the underclass of society, and to be fair I think a lot of that is to give the "tories an effing kicking" as Cameron put it.

Now if there is one thing the underclasses are, it's unreliable. It's a massive generalisation, but I've slummed it in my time and sitting around smoking weed and playing computer games is considerably more fun than standing in a line to post a vote. Am I being unfair? Probably, but there is definitely a grain of truth in it.

[Dee4Life1893]

If opinion polls were always correct we wouldn't need elections. Too many variables on a poll that's completely different from anything else we've ever seen.

16/17 year olds voting.

People registering to vote that's never voted before.

Highest ever level of voters registered.

Higher level of campaigning than any election I can remember.

Greater use of social media and greater numbers of social media users than ever before.

This doesn't mean I think it's necessarily going to be YES, but it means that I'm not convinced of the accuracy of the polls. Certainly it's no reason for us to be despondent.

Really?

I listen to Radio 5 and/or Radio Scotland most mornings and they have been all over it the last few weeks.

Other than that I've seen basically nothing apart from the the "No Thanks" in the farmer's fields and the "Yes" stickers on the shitty cars. Not one person in my work or at my door.

I'm voting YES by the way before I receive the vitriol of the masses.