Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[invergowrie arab]

I'm not sure what relevance that has nor why it'd need to be proved or otherwise.

Where do you think I've gone wrong in my reasoning in my previous post? Without resorting to subjective observational 'street level' stuff like 'there are more yes stickers in windows on my road', 'all my pals workplaces are 65%+ Yes' and 'did you no see those rallies over the last week?'.

You just mind you support the Yes team inn the Yes city son.

[TheScarf]

I like how some folk on here taking their own wee poll of their family and friends think it gives any indication whatsoever of what the result will be tomorrow.

'20 of my mates are voting Yes and only 1 sad fucker is voting No. Yasssss, we've fucking done it!'

[invergowrie arab]

I like how some folk on here taking their own wee poll of their family and friends think it gives any indication whatsoever of what the result will be tomorrow.

'20 of my mates are voting Yes and only 1 sad fucker is voting No. Yasssss, we've fucking done it!'

Who did that?

[Highlandmagyar]

Casual Bystander in denial. To pick one word from your quote. Traction. It seems that the Yes bus are losing theirs and slowing to a stop.

Mostly through fear and the silent No voters the Nos will squeak home.

[MangoBroccoli]

If it is on a knife edge as they keep saying, which I do not believe, why aren't the bookies having the YES vote at 10-11, and the NO vote at 10-11, the usual prices in a two horse close race. It is 2-7 NO , and YES is out to 3-1. The bookies obviously don't believe it is anywhere near a knife edge either.

For f**k sake, this shite has been discussed extensively over the past few days. Go back a few pages or do some fucking research on odds/bookies

[Blaven]

Not seen them but apparently the 3 polls just released (ICM Opinium Survation) are all showing round about the same % as before 48/52 (Y/N). If that is the case then there are two things we can take from those figures and they are positives for both sides:

The plus for the No: The surge in Yes votes has been stopped.

The plus for the Yes: The 3 stooges and massive scare stories of the last couple of days hasn't had an impact.

Personally, I think that this is a positive for the Yes campaign overall as the No camp have no cards left to play; scaring and Westminster politicians visiting isn't going to improve the figures for the No vote, however an impassioned plea to the Scottish people to seize the day could, imo, help the Yes vote.

Of course people would expect me to say that, but it's what I think.

I do hope that it is having a negative effect on the NAW I'M AWERIGHT THANKS voters.

Overheard twa auld biddies yesterday saying " aye but they seem awefae keen tae keep us. Aye there's summit funny there".

Folk are questioning Westminster's intensions now.

[Casual Bystander]

I'm not sure what relevance that has nor why it'd need to be proved or otherwise.

It's the 55-45 suggestion, nobody is expecting that, not even the no voters. And to demonstrate as much..

Mostly through fear and the silent No voters the Nos will squeak home.

However..

Casual Bystander in denial. To pick one word from your quote. Traction. It seems that the Yes bus are losing theirs and slowing to a stop.

So... basically you agree with me, yet claim I am in denial. The movement is in favour of Yes and has been almost all the way through the last month and a half. Like a perfect golf putt it's going to drop into the hole of independence (oo-er) just at the right time ..

[banana]

It's the 55-45 suggestion, nobody is expecting that, not even the no voters. And to demonstrate as much..

Really? I've seen plenty people who are expecting something in that neighbourhood, some of whom are on this forum.

Also, you didn't answer where you see the problem in my reasoning.

[Confidemus]

Really? I've seen plenty people who are expecting something in that neighbourhood, some of whom are on this forum.

Also, you didn't answer where you see the problem in my reasoning.

Yep, guilty as charged.

55% Yes 45% No has been my prediction for some time.

[Ned Nederlander]

I still contest that the pollsters have missed a trick. There is a huge undercurrent of people that would refuse to be polled for numerous reasons and the majority of them are likely to be Yes voters. Whether that majority will be enough to tip the balance who knows. I think it's these people, those who had stayed off the polling register since the poll tax or who had become disillusioned by politics, that are the real reason the 3 stooges made their way North. It's also why the stupid of the Miliband brothers has been making efforts up here as these people come from the traditional Labour heartlands of the disadvantaged and poverty stricken.

Also I just don't believe there are these "shy no's" who feel unable to give their support to the No campaign on Internet or phone polls. In the street? Perhaps, but then I know many people who would simply not answer in the street full stop, regardless of their opinion.

Well, I've been in both camps, No & Yes, and personally I feel it's easier to state your intentions when you are in the Yes camp (that's especially the case on here btw.)

Can't really put my finger on why that might be, possibly because when I was in the No camp deep down I still felt I wanted to be convinced to vote Yes .. who knows !?

And at a slight tangent but possibly relevant, I reckon the actual question in black and white on the ballot paper lends itself for an undecided to put their cross on Yes, I'm quite happy for someone to shoot me down if my assumption is incorrect but has it not been proven that humans are more likely to answer Yes to a direct question !?

[MONKMAN]

I am really worried we just might fall short,however considering we are up against the might of Westminster and the almost entirety of the main stream media I think we have fought a good fight.

I agree, I fully expect us to just miss out. Considering all that has stood in the way, I would have never dreamed of it being so close come Election day.

[Blaven]

I am really worried we just might fall short,however considering we are up against the might of Westminster and the almost entirety of the main stream media I think we have fought a good fight.

Yeah. How can we possibly counter against such scare stories such as the new one on sky news? " will the corgis need pet passports to go to Balmoral "?

[Casual Bystander]

Really? I've seen plenty people who are expecting something in that neighbourhood, some of whom are on this forum.

If you count arrogant trolls like that H_B character then yes, but you can't base your opinion on the extremist views.

As I say, if you were to walk the street, or chat in bars, nobody is predicting a 10% point gap. Many may suggest a No victory, but a slight one.

The only people predicting huge gaps are those outside of Scotland, or (bless him) Tommy Sheridan - although obviously in the other direction.

[LongTimeLurker]

If it is on a knife edge as they keep saying, which I do not believe, why aren't the bookies having the YES vote at 10-11, and the NO vote at 10-11, the usual prices in a two horse close race. It is 2-7 NO , and YES is out to 3-1. The bookies obviously don't believe it is anywhere near a knife edge either.

Because as things stand the bookies make money on a Yes apparently, but lose money on a No, so it's in their interest to get more punters betting yes. Think some people thought it was a sure thing for No (which it appeared to be in the polls until a couple of weeks ago) and made some very large bets.

[Colkitto]

Interesting from Maddox at the Scotsman

"Private Yes briefings put their support at 53-57% No reckon they have 55% both cannot be right"

True, both cannot be right. Who do you believe?

[Banterous]

Casual Bystander in denial. To pick one word from your quote. Traction. It seems that the Yes bus are losing theirs and slowing to a stop.

Mostly through fear and the silent No voters the Nos will squeak home.

The other aspect is that we as Scots don't like bullying and intimidation on the streets of our country against fellow countrymen. Guess where the blame lies for that yin???

[Cardinal Richelieu]

I like how some folk on here taking their own wee poll of their family and friends think it gives any indication whatsoever of what the result will be tomorrow.

'20 of my mates are voting Yes and only 1 sad fucker is voting No. Yasssss, we've fucking done it!'

Friday Night Armistice "Election Special" with Armando Iannucci.

They did an exit poll on one polling booth. Some old biddy said she voted Conservative, therefore the predicted outcome was a 650 Conservative majority.

[Casual Bystander]

Interesting from Maddox at the Scotsman

"Private Yes briefings put their support at 53-57% No reckon they have 55% both cannot be right"

True, both cannot be right. Who do you believe?

I am guessing both are including current undecideds, which would explain why both think they are in a better position than the polls.

Edited September 17, 2014 by Casual Bystander

[DigOutYourSoul]

Have a feeling the silent No will be a lot stronger than people are estimating. The volume of the Yes campaign in social media would suggest about 80/20 Yes/no.

The amount of people I know who have never uttered a peep about the referendum on social media, or told canvassers they are undecided to appease them at the door step, but are actually voting/have already voted no is pretty big.

I think this silent majority will outweigh new YES'ers in a lot of areas.

[Honest Saints Fan]

I find the opposite. Friends who I went to school with who haven't uttered a peep about it until last night, who I was sure would be no voters all seem to be Yes.