H_B Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I don't think a social media led poll can be taken over seriously given the vast difference in social media support of the two campaigns. We've had people claiming Facebook likes are an important indicator in this referendum. A true sign that the barrel has been scraped and the pavement underneath it is being attacked. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Interesting post from Scot goes Pop: ICM hasn't weighted by country of birth, which is actually a strong indicator of voting preference (unsurprisingly) with other UK born being one of the largest breaks to no avaialble to the pollsters. They've got 16% in their poll as opposed to the 8% there actually is, which if you recalcuate does narrow the gap slightly from 48/52 to 49/51. Using the turnout filter (some pollsters use this, others don't) then you get to 50/50. Having said that he's predicting a lead for no in the YG poll later today. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shtuggie Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 (edited) I don't think a social media led poll can be taken over seriously given the vast difference in social media support of the two campaigns. We've had people claiming Facebook likes are an important indicator in this referendum. A true sign that the barrel has been scraped and the pavement underneath it is being attacked. Absolutely right. I just thought it was interesting that it was featured on the BBC and the fact that the sample size went from 3000 to 6500 in about a day. Edited September 17, 2014 by Shtuggie 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leckie Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I don't know if this has been mentioned, but I just found the following: http://endpropaganda.wordpress.com/2014/09/02/scottish-referendum-poll/ You can stick your Yougovs, your Survations and your IPSOS/Mori's. Here's a poll with almost 65,000 respondents: I live in Scotland and will be voting YES 72.59% (46,993 votes) I live in Scotland and will be voting NO 16.04% (10,386 votes) If I could vote I'd vote YES 7.29% (4,719 votes) If I could vote I'd vote NO 4.07% (2,636 votes) Total Votes: 64,734 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDNtqy0zjJA 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Absolutely right. I just thought it was interesting that it was featured on the BBC and the fact that the sample size went from 3000 to 6500 in about a day. there has been much moron head scratching over the fact that football club message boards are 92% for Yes and the polls , well, aren't. Clowns have tried to use this as "evidence" that professional polling can't be trusted. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnyboy Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Firstly, the official polls haven't a clue what's going on at the moment. there following the same techniques that were applied fifty years ago. Everywhere I look on social media there's an overwhelming favour toward YES. Secondly, there's a massive percentage of the registered vote who haven't voted before, in any political vote. General elections muster about 60-65% of registered voters, local elections are often half that. With 97% of voters registered we're surely looking at 90% voting tomorrow. So that means the best part of a third of these voters are unknown to the pollsters. A lot of the pollsters results are based on algorithms and historical data, completely useless in this event. Thirdly, if pollsters were so believable why is there such a variance in outcomes. Fourthly, if pollsters were any use at all why did they get it so magnificently wrong at the last Scottish election. The pollsters repeatedly showed the Lib Dems running neck and neck with Labour at the last UK election. On the night, Labour had 29% of the vote and LD only 23%. Most awful statistic for last. The Tories mustered 36% of a 65% turnout, meaning less than 24% of the population voted for what we have today. There's got to be a better way than that. Whatever way it turns out on Friday almost half of the country wont have what they voted for and that for me is not a good start. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Fourthly, if pollsters were any use at all why did they get it so magnificently wrong at the last Scottish election. Pollsters got the result spectacularly right in the last Scottish election. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDNtqy0zjJA yeah I don't think i'll be clicking a link supplied by a proven bigot. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardinal Richelieu Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Whatever way it turns out on Friday almost half of the country wont have what they voted for and that for me is not a good start. True, but what's your solution? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrontPage Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Pollsters got the result spectacularly right in the last Scottish election. The highest poll predicting an SNP lead was at 11% just before voting, they had a 22% lead over Labour by the end. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shtuggie Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 there has been much moron head scratching over the fact that football club message boards are 92% for Yes and the polls , well, aren't. Clowns have tried to use this as "evidence" that professional polling can't be trusted. Those who take the word of unofficial polls over polls that come from organisations that specialise in, er, polling are clearly either trolling or genuinely daft. As I said, I thought it was interesting that the BBC featured such a one-sided poll amongst accusations of bias. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Pollsters got the result spectacularly right in the last Scottish election. What - on the day of the election? The night before? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 (edited) What - on the day of the election? The night before? For about the 8th time on here :- You Gov 4th May 2011 SNP 42% TNS-BMRB 3 May 2011 SNP 45% IPSOS-MORI 29th April 2011 SNP 45% Scottish Opinion 9th April 2011 SNP 46% Actual SNP share of the vote 45.39% You Gov also had the SNP at 45% in April. Edited September 17, 2014 by H_B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 For about the 8th time on here :- You Gov 4th May 2011 SNP 42% TNS-BMRB 3 May 2011 SNP 45% IPSOS-MORI 29th April 2011 SNP 45% Scottish Opinion 9th April 2011 SNP 46% Actual SNP share of the vote 45.39% You Gov also had the SNP at 45% in April. I can't be arsed trawling as I'm not as asinine a person as you, but I dispelled this bullshit from you last time, Tony. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 For about the 8th time on here :- You Gov 4th May 2011 SNP 42% TNS-BMRB 3 May 2011 SNP 45% IPSOS-MORI 29th April 2011 SNP 45% Scottish Opinion 9th April 2011 SNP 46% Actual SNP share of the vote 45.39% You Gov also had the SNP at 45% in April. What about the rest of the polls that made those ones look daft? That's like picking that one poll from two weeks ago and saying that the polls called this upcoming Yes victory all along. You can't just rewrite history mate - folk see through that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 William Hills now out to 19/5 for a Yes Vote. Polls or Bookies mmmmmm 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 William Hills now out to 19/5 for a Yes Vote. Polls or Bookies mmmmmm What? Both the polls and bookies are suggesting a No victory. On another note, I just got polled by yougov again. As well as the referendum question itself they asked about Holyrood intentions, and asked whether I'd ever felt threatened by the Yes campaign. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Panelbase settling on 48/52 No. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
true_rover Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Most awful statistic for last. The Tories mustered 36% of a 65% turnout, meaning less than 24% of the population voted for what we have today. There's got to be a better way than that. Didn't the SNP get 45% of the vote on a slightly over 50% turnout? What's the difference? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DigOutYourSoul Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Odds seem to be sitting around 19/5 for yes and 2/9 for No at the moment. No not getting any shorter but Yes seems to be drifting slowly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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