Redvine Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Panelbase settling on 48/52 No. 4 polls all the same 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Panelbase settling on 48/52 No. I think that's going to end up being the result. Massive convergence in the last 48 hours. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 4 polls all the same Got to admit that is very suspicious... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 What about the rest of the polls that made those ones look daft? What about them? Well before this stage of the 2011 Election campaign, the polls absolutely correctly predicted the SNP share of the vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Odds seem to be sitting around 19/5 for yes and 2/9 for No at the moment. No not getting any shorter but Yes seems to be drifting slowly. Ladbrokes rep was interviewed in the RP today and said they expect the Quebec effect to be in effect, with a drift towards No on polling day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 4 polls all the same Looks like their attempt to reduce false recall in 2011 recalled vote failed. Apparently 75% of their repsondents voted in the EU election. Actual turnout was about 35%. Only 2% of repsondents were inelligible to vote in 2011. Suggests they may not be picking up on newly registered voters. The convergence of the pollsters is remarkable. YouGov still to come, what's the betting it's showing 48/52 as well. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Ladbrokes rep was interviewed in the RP today and said they expect the Quebec effect to be in effect, with a drift towards No on polling day. How much of that was a real drift to No, and how much was just shit polling over estimating yes at the time though? Don't suppose it matters, it's the same result in the end..... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
throbber Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 William hill was 7/4 last week as well. Not looking good at all 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 How much of that was a real drift to No, and how much was just shit polling over estimating yes at the time though? Don't suppose it matters, it's the same result in the end..... Yeah, from the bookies point of view it doesn't certainly. They are just trying to nail down fixed percentages now for turnout and Yes/No as accurately as possible. Yes around 47-48 looks pretty much on the money. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I think that's going to end up being the result. Massive convergence in the last 48 hours. Not so sure, I think each of the pollsters comes with their own eccentricities and while I don't think it's a conspiricy that they've all converged to 48 for yes, as noted earlier, Yes could me a smidgeon higher in ICM at least. It's remarkable that 48 is what they've all come out to, but that still leaves an error on where it actually is (interestingly both ICM and TNS showed slightly higher Yes than the new norm in phone/face to face polling) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I fully expect You Govs super poll tonight.... 3000 people to show 50/50 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Panelbase 47.5 Yes 52.5 No 45/50/5 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Apparently when the 5% of remaining undecideds were asked to imagine themselves in the polling booth Leaning Yes - 33% Leaning No - 52% Genuinely no idea - 15% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 (edited) Most awful statistic for last. The Tories mustered 36% of a 65% turnout, meaning less than 24% of the population voted for what we have today. There's got to be a better way than that. Didn't the SNP get 45% of the vote on a slightly over 50% turnout? What's the difference? 9 & 15. HTH Edited September 17, 2014 by Jacksgranda 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Re the bookies. If the polls are genuine at 48% Yes then taking a punt at 19/5 could be seen to be good value. All I would need is some bad weather to keep the old people indoors. In my opinion Yes pollsters are more likely to actually turnout. That is my logic for perhaps still having a late punt. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Seems like 47/48 is the pollsters final conclusion. I would've taken it a while back tbh. The hope (and I really emphasise hope, rather than expectation) is that polling isn't picking up everyone we want picked up. I suspect that is a little bit true but the shy Tory / Quebec experience / theory that DK's at this stage are probably No, all also apply at some level too. It's not looking too likely but it's not a complete foregone conclusion either, which is better than I expected even a month ago. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
true_rover Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 9 & 15. HTH Still the same proportion of the population. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Pollsters fear 1992 all over again: Martin Boon, head of ICM the pollster with the best track record, has voiced on several occasions in recent weeks that the Scottish referendum could be a disaster for them on the scale of 1992. This was when all the firms totally understated the eventual CON lead of 7.5% and only one of them had a lead at all albeit of just 0.5% For GE1992 was the election when the pollsters got it wrong and led to big changes in polling methodology in the years that followed. This is one of the reason why those who try to predict polling trends by looking back are on the wrong track. The pollsters have moved on. As can be seen from the screen-shot from the BBC 1992 election results programme even the exit poll was very much out. The big challenge of the IndyRef is that there hasn’t been one before so there’s nothing to fall back on. Add to that turnout predictions of 80%+ and you create a huge headache for pollsters used to doing general election polls where only 65% actually vote. The measures that are used to filter out potential non-voters from their samples could mean that they are understating YES. On the other hand there’s what have become known as the “shy Noes” – those who don’t want change but are reluctant to admit it. So another 1992? My reading is that Thursday could produce a YES victory or a NO win by up to a 10% lead. Hedging my bets? You bet. http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/15/the-pollsters-biggest-fear-thursday-could-be-a-disaster-for-them-like-1992/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Pollsters fear 1992 all over again: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/15/the-pollsters-biggest-fear-thursday-could-be-a-disaster-for-them-like-1992/ Good analysis there. It could be close or either side could win by quite a lot. Do we have this guy's views on what might happen if you toss a coin? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMDP Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I've got to say the newer polls and lengthening odds just make me think it's beyond us now Apparently there is a poll out later that may shorten the gap to 2%. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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