Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[AyrExile]

Time to get the deviant greens binned. Wonder if any of the big (s)hitters that avoided standing last time will take Humza on in a leadership challenge. Can the investigation of Sturgeon be  turned into a McGarry like epic and avoid further nails in the coffin ahead of the election 

[HTG]

The police investigation into SNP finances has now been running for 2 and a half years. There's absolutely no doubt that the arrests of Murrell and Sturgeon are hanging over the wider fortunes of the SNP. I can't see how they can move forward until or unless the police complete these enquiries one way or the other. 

Scotland is not well served remaining in a union where Suella Braverman could be PM within 6 years. 

[GordonS]

5 hours ago, orfc said:

There's no evidence the Tory vote collapsed to labour any more than the SNP vote collapsed to labour. Both their drops can be explained by their past voters just sitting at home

It's just another tiresome entry in the "everyone's a Tory apart from the SNP" bollux that's pedalled on here

The turnout fell by less than half. The Tory vote fell 85%. Their share fell from 15% to 3.9% - a lost deposit. So no, it can't just be explained by their voters staying home, especially when Tories are the voters least likely to stay home. Thousands of them obviously came out and voted for someone.

It's completely standard in a by-election for almost all the votes to concentrate on the top two. We know from any amount of data, especially local government second preferences, that the strong next preference of Tory voters in Scotland is Labour, and they'll generally split 90-10 in their favour over the SNP.

None of this is spin or criticism of anyone or controversial, it's basic stuff. It would be spin to deny it.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

2 hours ago, Oceanlineayr said:

The sad problem is Starmer, a good chunk of the parliamentary Labour Party and a significant portion of the electorate agree/actively like and support the Conservative stance and position on many policies.

Labour under Starmer are basicially the Conservative Party and the Tories have become the BNP from the mid 2000s.

The sad indictment of the state of UK politics now is that the policies that c*nt Nick Griffin farted out on Question Time in 2009 (I think) are now major planks of the governing party and their Home Secretary.

 

Unfortunately there are a huge number of voters who don't quite get that Labour has migrated so much to the right that the only thing left (see what I did there ?) is the name of the party.

They'll find out soon enough.

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, HTG said:

The police investigation into SNP finances has now been running for 2 and a half years. There's absolutely no doubt that the arrests of Murrell and Sturgeon are hanging over the wider fortunes of the SNP. I can't see how they can move forward until or unless the police complete these enquiries one way or the other. 

Perhaps the SNP shouldn't have run their party finances like the kitty at a Junior football club's race night, in which case they wouldn't be under criminal investigation right now and have lost any credible auditors in the process. 

The idea that police investigation into complex financial allegations (standard operating procedure: years) is in any way an unjust burden is laughable. 

Besides - if the SNP had a leader who didn't foolishly tie themselves to being Nicola Sturgeon, only worse, on standing for the job then they would be able to set a demonstrable break with that past.

[orfc]

3 hours ago, GordonS said:

The turnout fell by less than half. The Tory vote fell 85%. Their share fell from 15% to 3.9% - a lost deposit. So no, it can't just be explained by their voters staying home, especially when Tories are the voters least likely to stay home. Thousands of them obviously came out and voted for someone.

It's completely standard in a by-election for almost all the votes to concentrate on the top two. We know from any amount of data, especially local government second preferences, that the strong next preference of Tory voters in Scotland is Labour, and they'll generally split 90-10 in their favour over the SNP.

None of this is spin or criticism of anyone or controversial, it's basic stuff. It would be spin to deny it.

The vast majority of the lost turn out ( down 23,000+ from 53,794 to 30,477) were ex-SNP voters sitting at home (15,000 less). Whether a much smaller number of missing conservatives voted labour, lib dem, or enormous sausage party is textbook "look there's a squirrel"ing from snp types. The maths is that labour just needed to get their vote out from last time and they did.

[GTee]

The Scots = pathetic shitebags

[thisal]

9 hours ago, Richey Edwards said:

Not an SNP fan but a lot is being made out of a solitary Labour by-election win in a flip-flop seat.

The SNP are shite but last night is hardly the Scottish Labour resurgence that some are making out.

That result would have been Repeated in just about any seat in Scotland. Only geography would determine whether it was Labour, Tory or Lib Dem that gathered the anyone but SNP vote at the expense of the disillusioned stay away SNP  voter. 

[O'Kelly Isley III]

The really interesting thing is going to be how the SNP reacts to this result.  As it is essentially an independence movement as opposed to a conventional political party there will be a clamour from the traditionalist wing to put the boot on the accelerator.  That could be down an electoral cul-de-sac.

On the other hand there will be pragmatists who will recognise that the SNP has to now act like a political party and respond primarily to the demands of the electorate rather than those of its membership.  That way trust could be established but it will be a slow and grinding process.

The momentum in both UK and Scottish politics is now with Labour.  They will inherit an utter shitshow at Westminster amidst huge expectations of change, and that will be a huge ask. 

Politics is a cyclical business and a period of calm reflection by the SNP accompanied by root-and-branch reorganisation and a determination of what their political as opposed to ideological DNA is will be required, because if the last few years have taught us anything it is that concentrating on independence to the exclusion of what impacts people's lives will deny that very prospect.

[Granny Danger]

20 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

Should I have made it more obvious that "Socialist" should have been said as sarcastically as possible?

Fair enough.  Apologies.

[KirkieRR]

42 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

The really interesting thing is going to be how the SNP reacts to this result.  As it is essentially an independence movement as opposed to a conventional political party there will be a clamour from the traditionalist wing to put the boot on the accelerator.  That could be down an electoral cul-de-sac.

On the other hand there will be pragmatists who will recognise that the SNP has to now act like a political party and respond primarily to the demands of the electorate rather than those of its membership.  That way trust could be established but it will be a slow and grinding process.

The momentum in both UK and Scottish politics is now with Labour.  They will inherit an utter shitshow at Westminster amidst huge expectations of change, and that will be a huge ask. 

Politics is a cyclical business and a period of calm reflection by the SNP accompanied by root-and-branch reorganisation and a determination of what their political as opposed to ideological DNA is will be required, because if the last few years have taught us anything it is that concentrating on independence to the exclusion of what impacts people's lives will deny that very prospect.

I think your last point is very true. Contrary to the claims of Hatstand Wings NotRev Stu, the SNP have appeared too focused on Indy while being an incompetent, hands-off guardian of the nations schools, colleges, police, NHS and transport. And, of course, have grossly neglected to attend to their internal issues. If you want to be trusted in the big, vision thing, get the everyday stuff that affects ordinary people right.

Like many, I don't think Humza is the guy to do this. But I'm not sure who is. 

[StellarHibee]

1 minute ago, KirkieRR said:

the SNP have appeared too focused on Indy while being an incompetent, hands-off guardian of the nations schools, colleges, police, NHS and transport.

Have they? Or were these things always screwed following 2016? Here's an idea, look at how these sectors are doing across the rest of the UK. If the SNP (not brexit) is to blame. Then they should be doing so much better in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, or at least one of them. Right?

[KirkieRR]

They're not directly comparable, so no, although the Westminster administration is also incompetent, and additionally evil.

Take transport. SNP have gone through more Transport Mjnisters than Sevco have had managers. One, on taking office (chap called Yousaf), admitted he knew nothing about transport. Consistent failure to link transport policy to bold climate change targets. Ongoing cluelessness.

[Trogdor]

Where's the whataboutery klaxon?

Being slightly less shit than England does not equal competent governance. 

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, KirkieRR said:

I think your last point is very true. Contrary to the claims of Hatstand Wings NotRev Stu, the SNP have appeared too focused on Indy while being an incompetent, hands-off guardian of the nations schools, colleges, police, NHS and transport. And, of course, have grossly neglected to attend to their internal issues. If you want to be trusted in the big, vision thing, get the everyday stuff that affects ordinary people right.

I don't agree that the SNP appear focused on independence over everyday issues. It barely gets raised at all (relatively, for a nationalist party in government) and Sturgeon's GE as an independence referendum policy has been quietly ditched.

The issue to me is that they're seen to be tied up in pointless gesture politics and covering for clowns like Lorna Slater - in addition to the long-term issues like lack of funding and reform of public services coming back to haunt them. For all the potential benefits of the policies, gestures like universal free school meals of child poverty payments do not ultimately matter when people are seeing their local services collapsing around them. 

[StellarHibee]

9 hours ago, Trogdor said:

 

Being slightly less shit than England does not equal competent governance. 

Being slightly less shit than England is the best Scotland can ever hope for as part of this basket case "union". Nobody the Scottish electorate votes for in Scottish or UK elections can ever change that. When will the reality of our situation sink in?

[Cheese]

It's a shite state of affairs to be in Tommy, and all the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference.

[Trogdor]

12 hours ago, StellarHibee said:

Being slightly less shit than England is the best Scotland can ever hope for as part of this basket case "union". Nobody the Scottish electorate votes for in Scottish or UK elections can ever change that. When will the reality of our situation sink in?

What a depressing notion. Its also utter drivel there are about a dozen policy disasters that the SNP government instigated all by themselves. They could be doing better by simply not doing that. I think your view is incredibly cynical and really boils down to SNP good WM bad.

The reality is the SNP could be doing a much better job of governing under the constitution settlement. If they don't do a much better job then independence won't happen. The SNP's incompetence in government is undermining the movement. When will the reality of that situation sink in?

[StellarHibee]

15 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

If they don't do a much better job then independence won't happen.

Which is why they can't. Do you honestly think Westminster would give a devolved parliament the capability of doing so much better than themselves? There's a reason why both the SNP and Labour have failed to significantly improve Scotland from Holyrood relative to Westminster. They can't. It's not set up to allow this to happen. Westminster will NEVER give Scotland any sort of edge that would improve the prospects of Scottish Independence. It's utterly incredible that there are still people living here who still haven't figured that one out yet. Incredible.

 

[Granny Danger]

33 minutes ago, StellarHibee said:

Which is why they can't. Do you honestly think Westminster would give a devolved parliament the capability of doing so much better than themselves? There's a reason why both the SNP and Labour have failed to significantly improve Scotland from Holyrood relative to Westminster. They can't. It's not set up to allow this to happen. Westminster will NEVER give Scotland any sort of edge that would improve the prospects of Scottish Independence. It's utterly incredible that there are still people living here who still haven't figured that one out yet. Incredible.

 

Do you think it would help if we could use these illustrated children’s books to explain?