MrWorldwideJr Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, kingjoey said: Which should we prioritise, a cup win or Europe? There has been a massive clamour this season from our fans saying that this is the season to finish third as this will guarantee entry to the Group stages of the European Conference League. I’ve always thought that this wasn’t the case and I’ve just read what awaits Scottish clubs next season. Unless Celtic or Rangers win the Scottish Cup, third and fourth place in the league would mean three qualifying rounds to get into the Group Stages of the Conference League. The Holy Grail is to win the Scottish Cup which gives you one qualifying round only to get into the Europa League, but if you fail to get through that, you automatically go into the Group Stage of the Conference League. So not only do you win a cup but you get European games until December at least. Despite what most of our fans are saying, this isn’t the year to finish third, this is the year to win the Scottish Cup. I think the point is that if we don't win the Scottish Cup then the most likely outcome is that it will be either Celtic or Rangers that do. At that point 3rd inherits the 'guaranteed group stages' path. Whilst the obvious ideal outcome is to win the Scottish Cup, it very much is important to finish 3rd instead of 4th as there's a (probably > 50%) chance that it will come with group stage football attached. I think it would be a pretty foolish approach to take that the difference between 3rd and 4th doesn't matter just because as things stand right now there is no difference between them when we know that the historically most likely outcome of the Scottish Cup will change that picture completely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Concentrate on being Scottish Cup runners-up then? I'm sure we could manage that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingjoey Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, MrWorldwideJr said: I think the point is that if we don't win the Scottish Cup then the most likely outcome is that it will be either Celtic or Rangers that do. At that point 3rd inherits the 'guaranteed group stages' path. Whilst the obvious ideal outcome is to win the Scottish Cup, it very much is important to finish 3rd instead of 4th as there's a (probably > 50%) chance that it will come with group stage football attached. I think it would be a pretty foolish approach to take that the difference between 3rd and 4th doesn't matter just because as things stand right now there is no difference between them when we know that the historically most likely outcome of the Scottish Cup will change that picture completely. Call me a Dundee United, but I don’t think that it is probable that Celtic or Rangers will win the Scottish Cup. It is more likely that Livingston or St. Johnstone will take the Group Stage place. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, CCB19035 said: Never said that. "Go the other way" to me, would be something like 2 cups a decade and qualifying for European football properly on a consistent basis. Not saying it'll just happen, but that should definitely be the aim. So rampant successful would be 1 more Cup a decade and benefiting from Rangers success thanks to an improved coefficient dropping 3rd straight into the groups? Truly reaching for the stars. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illgresi Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said: So rampant successful would be 1 more Cup a decade and benefiting from Rangers success thanks to an improved coefficient dropping 3rd straight into the groups? Truly reaching for the stars. Make up your mind; is he being over or under ambitious? Kindly pick one and stick with it. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Gordon Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 22 minutes ago, CCB19035 said: They wanted a title with a 3rd place squad. Never happening. We want a few more cups than 1 in 26, with what is now a consistent "top 4" side. Apples and Oranges. Sides worse than ours have managed to secure multiple trophies in the time we've secured one. It's not overly ambitious to ask for this, and have this be the bar set. Im as cynical as the next Aberdonian dons fan, but I think this is a time to be excited, it might not all happen at once, but for the first time since I can remember, the club is appearing to mirror the expectations from the fans, that can only be a good thing going forward driving standards. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to be able to fully share in your excitement, but there's part of me that will always hold me back, which is probably more to do with my personality. I think you could have a point though around expecting more. I think I've become conditioned to accept that we will beat the majority of Premiership sides under McInnes, get the odd result against Rangers*, but ultimately get beaten against Celtic when it counts. If we can get to the point where we're no longer passive in games against Celtic, harry them and get in their faces, then I would view that as a good first statement of intent. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DukDukGoose Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 22 minutes ago, Golden Gordon said: Don't get me wrong, I'd love to be able to fully share in your excitement, but there's part of me that will always hold me back, which is probably more to do with my personality. I think you could have a point though around expecting more. I think I've become conditioned to accept that we will beat the majority of Premiership sides under McInnes, get the odd result against Rangers*, but ultimately get beaten against Celtic when it counts. If we can get to the point where we're no longer passive in games against Celtic, harry them and get in their faces, then I would view that as a good first statement of intent. We've entered an alternate universe where the 'doom and gloom' merchants are overly excited because we don't have Derek McInnes in charge. the 'happy clappers' have decided life is going to be terrible because we don't have Derek McInnes in charge. The rest of us are sitting back, letting it play out and will see where it goes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, Merkland Red said: We've entered an alternate universe where the 'doom and gloom' merchants are overly excited because we don't have Derek McInnes in charge. the 'happy clappers' have decided life is going to be terrible because we don't have Derek McInnes in charge. The rest of us are sitting back, letting it play out and will see where it goes. You'll be the first posting 'get Sheerin to f**k' on Saturday night. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DukDukGoose Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Just now, Dons_1988 said: You'll be the first posting 'get Sheerin to f**k' on Saturday night. Exactly. I've let it play out for almost a fortnight. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Merkland Red said: Exactly. I've let it play out for almost a fortnight. Agreed. Enough is enough. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Gordon Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, Merkland Red said: We've entered an alternate universe where the 'doom and gloom' merchants are overly excited because we don't have Derek McInnes in charge. the 'happy clappers' have decided life is going to be terrible because we don't have Derek McInnes in charge. The rest of us are sitting back, letting it play out and will see where it goes. Ha ha! Can't argue with that, it'll ultimately be better, worse or the same. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Merkland Red said: Exactly. I've let it play out for almost a fortnight. You are, of course, right by the way. I actually just reject the idea that the previous management were content with mediocrity and the club has had a sudden awakening to want more than a single trophy. At their best they fell short of the targets they set themselves and then it tailed off after we lost the guts of the team that got us there. I suspect Mcinnes himself will look back with huge regret at missed opportunities. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFCDannyFTH Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 1 hour ago, RandomGuy. said: So rampant successful would be 1 more Cup a decade and benefiting from Rangers success thanks to an improved coefficient dropping 3rd straight into the groups? Truly reaching for the stars. Clubs die, Players and Managers come and go, but one constant is that RandomGuy will always be a fucking idiot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Game of throw-ins Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 (edited) As an Aberdeen fan I would rather we won a cup than finish 3rd. But I still wouldn't use cup success as the yardstick for judging a manager. Unless you only play ties where you are overwhelming favourites, cup runs are hugely a matter of chance. In Scotland Celtic and Rangers can realistically target cups because their financial strength (and virtual home advantage in the later stages) gives them a very high probability of winning even in a one-off tie, except against one another. The way that probability works in football means that in the modern Scottish game other clubs can only win cups when they have very high levels of luck. You can see the truth of this by looking at a list of cup-winners outside Rangers and Celtic in the past 20 years. What do these cup winners have in common, the thing that explains their success in that particular year? The answer is, pretty much zero. They were not usually outstanding or even particularly good sides. They were not normally the best side in the country discounting Rangers and Celtic. You hear fatuous talk about cup specialists, but that's basically just a tag retrospectively fitted to a team that was lucky enough to win a cup. They didn't need to have an outstanding or even good manager. If winning a cup was the mark of a good manager you'd expect a guy who won a cup with a provincial side to stay in the job as long as he wanted it - he's got nothing to prove. In fact it's by no means rare for a cup win to be followed by the manager being sacked for under-performing within a relatively short time. Boards of directors are not fooled that that the guy who won a cup is a brilliant manager. The last manager to win a cup for us prior to McInnes was the abysmal and soon to be dismissed Roy Aitken. I'm not denying that a manager who's built the 3rd best team in the country has a better chance of winning a cup than a guy who's built the 5th or 8th best team. But not, in Scottish football, nearly as much better a chance as fans commonly think. In fact when Rangers and Celtic both stumble it's pretty much in the lap of the gods which of the 10 or 12 teams below them get lucky. All an Aberdeen manager can do is build the best side he realistically can and hope this is the year we get the breaks. So yes, winning a cup matters more than finishing 3rd. But finishing 3rd - especially consistently - is a much more reliable indicator of a good manager than winning a cup. Edited March 18, 2021 by Game of throw-ins 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DukDukGoose Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, Dons_1988 said: You are, of course, right by the way. I actually just reject the idea that the previous management were content with mediocrity and the club has had a sudden awakening to want more than a single trophy. At their best they fell short of the targets they set themselves and then it tailed off after we lost the guts of the team that got us there. I suspect Mcinnes himself will look back with huge regret at missed opportunities. Aye. Derek was pragmatic at heart. When the chips are down managers tend to go to what they know best. He was also under pressure and in that circumstance it's an even bigger gamble than usual to go out of your comfort zone. It's easy to forget we were probably a misplaced pass/McLean getting too excited away from winning the Scottish Cup. In hindsight it was the support from the old regime that probably killed him. He was allowed to let players contracts run down as a gamble to try and progress. Looking back we probably should have sold players a year earlier than we let them go and sign a replacement. We couldn't have ended up much worse than where we were when we replaced them for nothing anyway. The season we finished runners up in every competition aside. Jack, Taylor and McGinn may have been a step too far. 17 minutes ago, CCB19035 said: I'm cautiously excited, the noises are good. I'm where you are at but they keyword is noise. Making promises is so easy. Delivering is where Dave needs to show he has it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bogbrush1903 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 (edited) 33 minutes ago, CCB19035 said: I'm cautiously excited, the noises are good. That's how I feel. I took a lot of flak on here for questioning Cormack at the start of the season (in main regarding season ticket marketing) and I wasn't particularly happy about his constant calls to get supporters back in the stadium, his considerable social media presence, or his proposed Q&A with supporters. However, that 17 minute 'interview' combined with the swift action to remove a toiling McInnes/Docherty has got me starting to believe again. There's going to be a few bumps in the road for sure and managerial appointments are going to be reflective of how much ambition he truly has for AFC but there are reasons for optimism. I've haven't felt particularly optimistic since the summer of 2017 about the Dons. I don't expect a league challenge next season but if we can reignite the supporters passion for the club then it would be a great start. I want to feel that momentum build around the club again that had dissipated away to nothing in the final McInnes years. Edited March 18, 2021 by Bogbrush1903 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Illgresi said: Make up your mind; is he being over or under ambitious? Kindly pick one and stick with it. He's just stirring shite. As usual 1 hour ago, Golden Gordon said: Ha ha! Can't argue with that, it'll ultimately be better, worse or the same. You should be an economist 46 minutes ago, Merkland Red said: Aye. Derek was pragmatic at heart. When the chips are down managers tend to go to what they know best. He was also under pressure and in that circumstance it's an even bigger gamble than usual to go out of your comfort zone. It's easy to forget we were probably a misplaced pass/McLean getting too excited away from winning the Scottish Cup. In hindsight it was the support from the old regime that probably killed him. He was allowed to let players contracts run down as a gamble to try and progress. Looking back we probably should have sold players a year earlier than we let them go and sign a replacement. We couldn't have ended up much worse than where we were when we replaced them for nothing anyway. The season we finished runners up in every competition aside. Jack, Taylor and McGinn may have been a step too far. I'm where you are at but they keyword is noise. Making promises is so easy. Delivering is where Dave needs to show he has it. I still have nightmares about that. Knew we were going to lose after that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Gordon Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said: He's just stirring shite. As usual You should be an economist I still have nightmares about that. Knew we were going to lose after that. Maybe you should go into insurance, you seem to like your multi-quote packages... (boom, tish) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Golden Gordon said: Maybe you should go into insurance, you seem to like your multi-quote packages... (boom, tish) I had them all quoted separately then merged them, so maybe you're onto something... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Merkland Red said: We've entered an alternate universe where the 'doom and gloom' merchants are overly excited because we don't have Derek McInnes in charge. the 'happy clappers' have decided life is going to be terrible because we don't have Derek McInnes in charge. The rest of us are sitting back, letting it play out and will see where it goes. There is no middle ground between happy clapper and doom merchant. If you aren't one, you must be the other. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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