Colkitto Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, RedRob72 said: I think now IS probably the best time to launch a 2nd Ref, whilst the Unionist vote is still pretty much intact? As mentioned previously, I just can't see the UK Gov giving the go ahead amidst sorting out the Brexit problem. Yes, possibly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 21 minutes ago, RedRob72 said: I think now IS probably the best time to launch a 2nd Ref, whilst the Unionist vote is still pretty much intact? As mentioned previously, I just can't see the UK Gov giving the go ahead amidst sorting out the Brexit problem. Why not? It is after all part of the Brexit 'problem'. It's not so much the "vote" being intact, but rather the machine capable of drumming up the vote that you should be concerned with. Labour are on their knees, with little in the way of elected officials, or 'big beasts' to wheel out, or money or even stomach to fight another referendum. The Tories are not yet rehabilitated as human beings still, in large parts of the electorate. The Lib Dems are an irrelevancy. So far much of the pro-Union 'campaigning' such as it's been, has been carried out by Scotland in Union, a well funded organization of ultra-Yoon dingbats who are unlikely to rally the majority. Much of the solid pro Union vote is in the older segments of the populace, Yes was marginally ahead last time in much of the working age demographics. The Unionists would be concerned at bleeding any more of that away, as they are already pretty maxed out in the older demographics anyway. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Why not? It is after all part of the Brexit 'problem'. It's not so much the "vote" being intact, but rather the machine capable of drumming up the vote that you should be concerned with. Labour are on their knees, with little in the way of elected officials, or 'big beasts' to wheel out, or money or even stomach to fight another referendum. The Tories are not yet rehabilitated as human beings still, in large parts of the electorate. The Lib Dems are an irrelevancy. So far much of the pro-Union 'campaigning' such as it's been, has been carried out by Scotland in Union, a well funded organization of ultra-Yoon dingbats who are unlikely to rally the majority. Much of the solid pro Union vote is in the older segments of the populace, Yes was marginally ahead last time in much of the working age demographics. The Unionists would be concerned at bleeding any more of that away, as they are already pretty maxed out in the older demographics anyway. Much of that is true perhaps and the reason Teresa May will not want to be forced to fight on two fronts at present. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, RedRob72 said: Much of that is true perhaps and the reason Teresa May will not want to be forced to fight on two fronts at present. Her options are limited. In terms of the Scottish referendum, to deny a referendum is to run the risk of making any future referendum unwinnable for the Union. That kind of Scorched earth policy is not exactly tenable. British democracy is built on precedence, Cameron and Salmond set the precedent: if there is a Majority at Holyrood with a mandate to call one, they can. To turn around now and deny one would look far too transparent in it's intent: It's simply not wanting to hold one on grounds they might lose. which is an affront to democracy. If the Union can be saved, it'll have to be - must be - by the hands of the electorate and not by a British government trying to avoid the argument in the first place. The first Unionist campaign blew a lot of capital on the 2014 vote, almost in the vain hope they wouldn't have to argue the case again, shortly thereafter. You can pin a lot of this on the current and previous UK government's complete lack of strategic forethought, or even basic intelligence. For that reason I'm not inclined to show them any quarter in terms of timing. Largely, they brought this on themselves. Of course, what May could do, is hold off the other exit, until the Scottish question has been put to the ballot, if it is to be. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McSpreader Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, renton said: Her options are limited. In terms of the Scottish referendum, to deny a referendum is to run the risk of making any future referendum unwinnable for the Union. That kind of Scorched earth policy is not exactly tenable. British democracy is built on precedence, Cameron and Salmond set the precedent: if there is a Majority at Holyrood with a mandate to call one, they can. To turn around now and deny one would look far too transparent in it's intent: It's simply not wanting to hold one on grounds they might lose. which is an affront to democracy. If the Union can be saved, it'll have to be - must be - by the hands of the electorate and not by a British government trying to avoid the argument in the first place. The first Unionist campaign blew a lot of capital on the 2014 vote, almost in the vain hope they wouldn't have to argue the case again, shortly thereafter. You can pin a lot of this on the current and previous UK government's complete lack of strategic forethought, or even basic intelligence. For that reason I'm not inclined to show them any quarter in terms of timing. Largely, they brought this on themselves. Of course, what May could do, is hold off the other exit, until the Scottish question has been put to the ballot, if it is to be. May can't put off Brexit in favour of A Scottish indy ref. That is just peurile. She has a mandate for Brexit. She dos not have a mandate to call an indy ref. It's only in the deluded minds of ScotNats that there is any desire for indyref2. The 'Scottish question' was put to the ballot in 2014 and the people spoke clearly. I don't think May or Sturgeon would be forgiven for disrupting the Brexit negotiations with another and an unwanted indy ref 2 anytime over the next 2 years......Not that Sturgeon has got the bottle to go for it now, neither. Why do you fool yourself otherwise ? Edited February 13, 2017 by McSpreader 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ira Gaines Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 You should hope they're allowed to call indyref2. Because if they're not, your precious union is fucked beyond repair. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 25 minutes ago, McSpreader said: May can't put off Brexit in favour of A Scottish indy ref. That is just peurile. She has a mandate for Brexit. She dos not have a mandate to call an indy ref. It's only in the deluded minds of ScotNats that there is any desire for indyref2. The 'Scottish question' was put to the ballot in 2014 and the people spoke clearly. I don't think May or Sturgeon would be forgiven for disrupting the Brexit negotiations with another and an unwanted indy ref 2 anytime over the next 2 years......Not that Sturgeon has got the bottle to go for it now, neither. Why do you fool yourself otherwise ? A commitment to holding indyref2 was in the SNP manifesto should Scotland come out of the EU against the wishes of the people. That's what the people voted on when they made the SNP the biggest party at Holyrood. So it's not an unwanted indy ref. That's only in the deluded minds of yoons like yourself 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Colkitto said: A commitment to holding indyref2 was in the SNP manifesto should Scotland come out of the EU against the wishes of the people. That's what the people voted on when they made the SNP the biggest party at Holyrood. So it's not an unwanted indy ref. That's only in the deluded minds of yoons like yourself You don't have to be a genius to realise that based the last SNP manifesto they have a mandate to call a further referendum. Sadly some posters on here are at the opposite end of the intelligence spectrum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 You don't have to be a genius to realise that based the last SNP manifesto they have a mandate to call a further referendum. Sadly some posters on here are at the opposite end of the intelligence spectrum. Serious question, what is she waiting for then, if she has such a clear mandate? She's blown any involvement in the Brexit process, it continues to gather pace without her, why not just call it now? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 May can't put off Brexit in favour of A Scottish indy ref. That is just peurile. She has a mandate for Brexit. She dos not have a mandate to call an indy ref. It's only in the deluded minds of ScotNats that there is any desire for indyref2. The 'Scottish question' was put to the ballot in 2014 and the people spoke clearly. I don't think May or Sturgeon would be forgiven for disrupting the Brexit negotiations with another and an unwanted indy ref 2 anytime over the next 2 years......Not that Sturgeon has got the bottle to go for it now, neither. Why do you fool yourself otherwise ? [emoji38]You don't seem to understand the fairly basic concepts of manifesto and mandate. You're an utter imbecile. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, RedRob72 said: Serious question, what is she waiting for then, if she has such a clear mandate? She's blown any involvement in the Brexit process, it continues to gather pace without her, why not just call it now? Serious answer. Because the SNP government have a mandate to do something they are not obliged to exercise that at any particular time. IMO we are still in the 'phoney war' stage of the Brexit negotiations. People are still unaware of what the real economic impact of leaving Europe will be. Once this becomes clearer people will be able to take a more informed decision, personally I think that will increase the support for Independence. As I say this is just my personal opinion. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Serious answer. Because the SNP government have a mandate to do something they are not obliged to exercise that at any particular time. IMO we are still in the 'phoney war' stage of the Brexit negotiations. People are still unaware of what the real economic impact of leaving Europe will be. Once this becomes clearer people will be able to take a more informed decision, personally I think that will increase the support for Independence. As I say this is just my personal opinion. The SNP compromise position is still on the table, nothing will happen until the UK government explicitly dismiss that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Serious answer. Because the SNP government have a mandate to do something they are not obliged to exercise that at any particular time. IMO we are still in the 'phoney war' stage of the Brexit negotiations. People are still unaware of what the real economic impact of leaving Europe will be. Once this becomes clearer people will be able to take a more informed decision, personally I think that will increase the support for Independence. As I say this is just my personal opinion. Seems fair enough, guess it could work the other way too, given the precarious position of some other EU members and the stability of their respective economies. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, oaksoft said: IMO it's because she knows there is a huge risk of not winning it. Brexit will come first and rightly so because people voted for it directly. Indyref2 will and should be further down the line becxause people did not explicitly vote for it. The SNP were elected as a result of many manifesto commitments. Indyref2 was only one of them so to say the landslide was a mandate for Indyref2 is misleading at best and that is putting it charitably because it wasn't that long ago that Unionists were saying that having only a handful of SNP MPs was a mandate NOT to hold a referendum. The same people who were calling that argument bullshit are now trying to use it themselves. In that regard. it seems that not only do some people want to play on both sides of the net but that apparently those who can spot the logical flaw are derided by "sadly some posters on here are at the opposite end of the intelligence spectrum". May is perfectly within her rights to deny Indyref2 and is probably justified in getting away with it until around 2021 to 2025. At that point it will have been 7-11 years since the first vote and claiming the vote is settled will start to wear thin. There is always a risk of not winning it. The question is whether letting Brexit occur makes it more difficult to win in the long run. Some fights you don't get to pick. As for MAy's "rights" - I disagree. Cameron and Salmond se the precedent, a majority at Holyrood willing to call it. I think that's right, the UK government if it's sensible should acquiesce to that. It's up to the people of Scotland to decide when and how, not May, not Westminster. To stop it is to either wholly solidify that yes vote - or increase it. Making the SNP a shoe in at the next election, and only bringing the whole thing back round again. To let it go is to either invite Scottish independence, which, if that's the result what's the point in contesting it, or Yes loses again, and again and again - as many times as it takes for the people of Scotland to vote for a pro Union government at Holyrood, that seems like the purest way of letting the people decide. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Heliums Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 May does have a couple of aces still, if she wants to win the second indyref. She's never going to block it, but she might only agree to it if there's a third option – say a devo-la-la-land option – included on the ballot paper. This would probably be enough to guarantee an indyref majority if it comprised the carrot of more powers for Scotland (I know we went through this devo-max shite last time, but there's a section of society that will believe it, still). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Mr Heliums said: May does have a couple of aces still, if she wants to win the second indyref. She's never going to block it, but she might only agree to it if there's a third option – say a devo-la-la-land option – included on the ballot paper. This would probably be enough to guarantee an indyref majority if it comprised the carrot of more powers for Scotland (I know we went through this devo-max shite last time, but there's a section of society that will believe it, still). Could easily split the No vote as much as the Yes vote. And besides, ScotGov more or less put that on the table in December as part of the differentiated Brexit paper. The UK government could easily agree to that, and head off another referendum at the pass. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Heliums Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 31 minutes ago, RedRob72 said: Serious question, what is she waiting for then, if she has such a clear mandate? She's blown any involvement in the Brexit process, it continues to gather pace without her, why not just call it now? Two strong arguments: First, if she does, she lays herself open to the attack that she wasn't serious about opposing hard Brexit within the UK. I still think she is committed to that, and it's only when all avenues to oppose it are exhausted that she'll call it. Second, we don't know the Brexit timescale. If Sturgeon calls it now, the UK Government can adjust their Brexit negotiations to best effect. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McSpreader Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 (edited) 33 minutes ago, jupe1407 said: You don't seem to understand the fairly basic concepts of manifesto and mandate. You're an utter imbecile. ^^^^ Me and my Shadow, lol! Sturgeon is a joke and should get on with administering Scotland. Of course the SNP had 'independence' in the Manifesto, they always have it in their manifesto but that doesn't make it top of the list. In fact I would say it is the least pressing issue facing Scotland right now.........And the SNP help no-one or nothing banging on about it....in fact banging on about it only highlights the paucity of their achievements! Edited February 13, 2017 by McSpreader 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McSpreader Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Randy Giles said: You should hope they're allowed to call indyref2. Because if they're not, your precious union is fucked beyond repair. Ha ha.....the Union isn't as precious to me as you think but it is far far better than an SNP led iScotland.....That would be oblivion! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunfermline Don Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Ha ha.....the Union isn't as precious to me as you think but it is far far better than an SNP led iScotland.....That would be oblivion! An iScotland does not have to be SNP led but if we stay in the UK we will be Tory/UKIP led for the near future. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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