When will indyref2 happen?

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

There is so much uncertainty for Sturgeon this issue.
If the deal on brexit is defeated on Dec 11th then we face a real prospect of a General Election  in the new year. I wouldn't imagine she would announce a referendum until that is over. If by any chance Corbyn gains a majority and is PM then it could well blunt a Nationalist push for a new vote on independence. A left wing Corbyn government would be palatable to the wider Scottish electorate and if that government have any sense about them ,then they will empower Holyrodd with more control over more of Scotland's affairs. Of course, even if Labour win then there is the Brexit conundrum. 
The only way I see Labour getting a new perspective on the Brexit question is to hold a new referendum on it. If we still vote to come out we have to swallow it. If we change our minds then re-negotiations to re-enter Euroland.
Meanwhile during the negotiations we maintain the status quo on Europe. All of this of course would delay any independence referendum.
 

For once, I kinda think you might be right. But if the brexit bill passes it’ll be a different fish of kettles.

[Colkitto]

1 hour ago, sparky88 said:

On the basis of this, next month's rent has gone on this bet. I presume you have a good track record of predicting when there will be a second independence refefendum?

Get all your savings on it as well..

[Colkitto]

11 minutes ago, Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier said:

There is so much uncertainty for Sturgeon this issue.

If the deal on brexit is defeated on Dec 11th then we face a real prospect of a General Election  in the new year. I wouldn't imagine she would announce a referendum until that is over. If by any chance Corbyn gains a majority and is PM then it could well blunt a Nationalist push for a new vote on independence. A left wing Corbyn government would be palatable to the wider Scottish electorate and if that government have any sense about them ,then they will empower Holyrodd with more control over more of Scotland's affairs. Of course, even if Labour win then there is the Brexit conundrum. 

The only way I see Labour getting a new perspective on the Brexit question is to hold a new referendum on it. If we still vote to come out we have to swallow it. If we change our minds then re-negotiations to re-enter Euroland.

Meanwhile during the negotiations we maintain the status quo on Europe. All of this of course would delay any independence referendum.

 

There won't be an election in this fixed term parliament. If May goes all they will do is replace her with another leader. 

[Colkitto]

1 hour ago, Loondave1 said:

1 hour ago, sparky88 said:

On the basis of this, next month's rent has gone on this bet. I presume you have a good track record of predicting when there will be a second independence refefendum?

He does. Basically predicts it will be an unspecified month in the future. How can it be wrong ?

Brexit creates so much uncertainty it's hard to predict one week to another. But there will be an announcement on indyref2 in January and there will be a referendum on independence.   

[Benjamin_Nevis]

12 minutes ago, Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier said:

There is so much uncertainty for Sturgeon this issue.

If the deal on brexit is defeated on Dec 11th then we face a real prospect of a General Election  in the new year. I wouldn't imagine she would announce a referendum until that is over. If by any chance Corbyn gains a majority and is PM then it could well blunt a Nationalist push for a new vote on independence. A left wing Corbyn government would be palatable to the wider Scottish electorate and if that government have any sense about them ,then they will empower Holyrodd with more control over more of Scotland's affairs. Of course, even if Labour win then there is the Brexit conundrum. 

The only way I see Labour getting a new perspective on the Brexit question is to hold a new referendum on it. If we still vote to come out we have to swallow it. If we change our minds then re-negotiations to re-enter Euroland.

Meanwhile during the negotiations we maintain the status quo on Europe. All of this of course would delay any independence referendum.

 

I don't disagree with much of that tbh.

If there's an election it's by no means a stick-on that Labour would win. Corbyn isn't going to get an overall majority, he may however be able to get into No10 with a Confidence & Supply arrangement with the SNP. I expect part of this would include a guarantee to allow IndyRef2 at some point during the next parliament. Frankly I don't trust Corbyn not to make a c**t of a new election campaign. His manifesto needs to promise more than to nationalise the fucking trains. Labour's reluctance to say they'll do anything about Universal Credit and general welfare reform is a major concern, for example. He's also been a waste of space over Brexit. 

The media campaign against him will be like nothing we've ever seen before either. If he somehow manages not to f**k it up and gets into power I will quite enjoy the rage from Daily Mail readers and the sight of his erstwhile critics within the PLP fucking begging for ministerial posts.

I do however feel that May will cling on purely because no one else in her fucking rabble of c***s will want the job just now. I hope she hangs on long enough to have a full on nervous breakdown tbh. 

 

 

 

[Granny Danger]

8 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

There won't be an election in this fixed term parliament. If May goes all they will do is replace her with another leader. 

The Conservative Party might find that a difficult task.  Whilst the Hard Brexiteers dominate the headlines they are in the minority of Tory MPs.

As I understand it the process puts it back to the wider Tory membership once it’s down to two candidates and therefore a Hard Brexiteers might win the contest but there will be limited support for him/her at Westminster.

The idea that such a person can go back to Brussels and get a better deal is laughable so we are back to a Hard Brexit scenario which will not get through Parliament.

 

[Colkitto]

3 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

The Conservative Party might find that a difficult task.  Whilst the Hard Brexiteers dominate the headlines they are in the minority of Tory MPs.

As I understand it the process puts it back to the wider Tory membership once it’s down to two candidates and therefore a Hard Brexiteers might win the contest but there will be limited support for him/her at Westminster.

The idea that such a person can go back to Brussels and get a better deal is laughable so we are back to a Hard Brexit scenario which will not get through Parliament.

 

Yes, anything can happen now. But changing the PM doesn't automatically mean a GE as some seem to believe.  

[Granny Danger]

4 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Yes, anything can happen now. But changing the PM doesn't automatically mean a GE as some seem to believe.  

Yeah, I don’t think the Tories will want a GE and under the FTPA Labour will find it difficult to force one.

All the more reason for Labour to focus on a second referendum.

 

[Colkitto]

6 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Yeah, I don’t think the Tories will want a GE and under the FTPA Labour will find it difficult to force one.

All the more reason for Labour to focus on a second referendum.

 

They seem to be drifting towards a second referendum. But there is obviously divisions within the Labour party over that too

[Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier]

Just now, jupe1407 said:

I don't disagree with much of that tbh.

If there's an election it's by no means a stick-on that Labour would win. Corbyn isn't going to get an overall majority, he may however be able to get into No10 with a Confidence & Supply arrangement with the SNP. I expect part of this would include a guarantee to allow IndyRef2 at some point during the next parliament. Frankly I don't trust Corbyn not to make a c**t of a new election campaign. His manifesto needs to promise more than to nationalise the fucking trains. Labour's reluctance to say they'll do anything about Universal Credit and general welfare reform is a major concern, for example. He's also been a waste of space over Brexit. 

The media campaign against him will be like nothing we've ever seen before either. If he somehow manages not to f**k it up and gets into power I will quite enjoy the rage from Daily Mail readers and the sight of his erstwhile critics within the PLP fucking begging for ministerial posts.

I do however feel that May will cling on purely because no one else in her fucking rabble of c***s will want the job just now. I hope she hangs on long enough to have a full on nervous breakdown tbh. 

 

 

 

I can't disagree with any of the above.

[Granny Danger]

9 minutes ago, Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier said:

I can't disagree with any of the above.

Sadly I do.  Universal Credit is far more important than the railways but not to the centre ground voters that Labour need to attract.

Up in my part of the world rail travel might be seen as a peripheral issue but in certain parts of the U.K. it’s a very real one.

 

[Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier]

Just now, Granny Danger said:

Sadly I do.  Universal Credit is far more important than the railways but not to the centre ground voters that Labour need to attract.

Up in my part of the world rail travel might be seen as a peripheral issue but in certain parts of the U.K. it’s a very real one.

 

I absolutely get that. Wether you liked or hated Tony Blair he knew this and why he won elections. It's the'I'm all right Jack, f**k you' syndrome.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

34 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Sadly I do.  Universal Credit is far more important than the railways but not to the centre ground voters that Labour need to attract.

Up in my part of the world rail travel might be seen as a peripheral issue but in certain parts of the U.K. it’s a very real one.

 

I think once Corbyn has properly costed out re-nationalising the railways he'll absolutely shite himself and shelve it for the foreseeable. 

UC is becoming more of an issue. There are quite a few families where one of both parents might be working, previously got Child Tax Credits and are now being shafted under UC. Think back to that daft Tory-voting bint on QT who tearfully stood up to say she voted Tory and got her Tax Credits cut. There are loads of folk like that in Angus alone that are already, or about to be shafted under this.

UC is also a nightmare for the low-income self employed, especially those in seasonal-type work, folk on variable incomes, folk who are on 4-weekly pay cycles etc etc 

Give it a couple of years and it'll be a much bigger issue than it is now. 

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, jupe1407 said:

I think once Corbyn has properly costed out re-nationalising the railways he'll absolutely shite himself and shelve it for the foreseeable. 

UC is becoming more of an issue. There are quite a few families where one of both parents might be working, previously got Child Tax Credits and are now being shafted under UC. Think back to that daft Tory-voting bint on QT who tearfully stood up to say she voted Tory and got her Tax Credits cut. There are loads of folk like that in Angus alone that are already, or about to be shafted under this.

UC is also a nightmare for the low-income self employed, especially those in seasonal-type work, folk on variable incomes, folk who are on 4-weekly pay cycles etc etc 

Give it a couple of years and it'll be a much bigger issue than it is now. 

Maybe so but the promise of it could go a long way to getting him into Downing Street.

 

[Benjamin_Nevis]

Maybe so but the promise of it could go a long way to getting him into Downing Street.
 

I'd argue that less folk give a f**k about the railways than UC tbh. Most commuters only give a shit about their train being 10 minutes late.

[Granny Danger]

Just now, jupe1407 said:

10 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Maybe so but the promise of it could go a long way to getting him into Downing Street.
 

I'd argue that less folk give a f**k about the railways than UC tbh. Most commuters only give a shit about their train being 10 minutes late.

Two things.  

1 You live in Angus where it’s not a problem; there are huge swathes of the U.K. where it is.

2 Many/most of this who care about UC will already vote Labour (or at least not Tory) and many others won’t vote.

My point is Corbyn is chasing a target group who will most likely vote and see this as a key issue.

I think UC is more important than railways but that is irrelevant in the context of the point I’m making.

If there’s a GE I hope Labour do push the issue of UC to the fore.  And, of course, the plight of the poor pensioners.  

 

[NotThePars]

3 hours ago, jupe1407 said:

 

I do however feel that May will cling on purely because no one else in her fucking rabble of c***s will want the job just now. I hope she hangs on long enough to have a full on nervous breakdown tbh. 

 

 

 

 

The only way for the Tories to maintain any semblance of unity going forward is to leave May in charge like the god-emperor in Warhammer 40k. Strapped to a life support machine on a golden chair while they sacrifice 100 Tory interns at the altar to keep her going.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

Two things.  
1 You live in Angus where it’s not a problem; there are huge swathes of the U.K. where it is.
2 Many/most of this who care about UC will already vote Labour (or at least not Tory) and many others won’t vote.
My point is Corbyn is chasing a target group who will most likely vote and see this as a key issue.
I think UC is more important than railways but that is irrelevant in the context of the point I’m making.
If there’s a GE I hope Labour do push the issue of UC to the fore.  And, of course, the plight of the poor pensioners.  
 

[emoji38]

I don't think they will. McDonnell was recently on record as saying they had no plans to stop it.

[NotThePars]

Just now, jupe1407 said:

I don't think they will. McDonnell was recently on record as saying they had no plans to stop it.
 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-ditch-universal-credit-mcdonnell-says-11520302

I saw another article (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-universal-credit-benefit-system-scrap-rework-rename-john-mcdonnell-shami-chakrabarti-a8583241.html) that argues differently but it still seems to be of the opinion that UC has to be stopped and fundamentally reworked.

[tirso]

what  specificically is it in May's deal that the SNP disagree with.  Apart from it being Brexit at all?

would prefer meat on the bones which could actually change people's opinions.  REally don't think the SNP are taking advantage here as much as they should be.