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When will indyref2 happen?


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Indyref2  

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8 minutes ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

Because an SNP politician expressing a potential desire to be in a Union with rUK goes against the whole nationalist ethos.

I’m not sure if they’d do to Alba or the Greens, but they’d quite possibly just stay at home.

I don’t think mutual beneficially cooperation is a bad thing at all.  That’s one of the many reasons why I’m a Unionist.

Roddick specifically states that she is looking for something like the EU, not like the 1707 Union of the Parliaments. How does an Independent Scotland making treaties with other sovereign states go against the whole nationalist ethos?

How can we have mutually beneficial cooperation whilst Westminster makes the treaties and imposes legislation on behalf of the whole UK?

3 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

Exactly. I know that there was a lot of waffle in 2014 about maintaining a 'social union' with England, but the words expressed here sound like a lot more than that. It's a kind of ultimate 'don't scare the horses' tactic...you can vote for Indy because we will still be in a co-operative union with England.

When Scotland gets independence, do you really think that the flow of water & electricity over the border will be cut off immediately, and that Faslane & Coulport will be told to gtf on day 1, or do you think that the rUK & Scottish Governments will sit down and negotiate a treaty?

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I totally agree that they will sit down and negotiate terms (which I also reckon could drag on for years).

However...as we know the current proposal is to share a currency. The SNP have made no mention of discontinuing thr Royal connection, so presumably shared Crown. I agree that Faslane will continue for some time. And as with the point about electricity/water I think there will be a shared defence with Scotland paying a share towards it.

Should an Independent Scotland make treaties etc with other countries? Of course, but clearly an ongoing union/co-operation with England is very different to striking a trade deal with France or Italy eg.

Roddick's comments still sound to me like a watered down version of what has been proposed over recent times, and designed to gain support by saying we will only be 'half' Independent and essentially half not...so don't worry about voting for us

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Unionists (and Oaksoft) pretending to think that nationalists want a cold war with England  :lol:

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5 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

I totally agree that they will sit down and negotiate terms (which I also reckon could drag on for years).

However...as we know the current proposal is to share a currency. The SNP have made no mention of discontinuing thr Royal connection, so presumably shared Crown. I agree that Faslane will continue for some time. And as with the point about electricity/water I think there will be a shared defence with Scotland paying a share towards it.

Should an Independent Scotland make treaties etc with other countries? Of course, but clearly an ongoing union/co-operation with England is very different to striking a trade deal with France or Italy eg.

Roddick's comments still sound to me like a watered down version of what has been proposed over recent times, and designed to gain support by saying we will only be 'half' Independent and essentially half not...so don't worry about voting for us

Currency

We propose that, on independence, Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling for a period before moving to our policy of adopting a Scottish pound. The change would take place as soon as practicable through a careful, managed and responsible transition, guided by criteria and economic conditions rather than a fixed timetable (my emphasis)

https://www.gov.scot/publications/building-new-scotland-stronger-economy-independence/pages/8/

Using a currency is not the same as sharing a currency, and the plan is to adopt a Scottish Pound asap

Crown

The current SNP policy is to retain King Chuckles the 1/3rd as head of state. That's an SNP policy I disagree with. However, as the Scottish king inherited the English crown in 1603, we have at least an equal claim to the whole parasitical family. 

In addition, Chuckles is also king of Australia, NZ, Canada etc. Last time I looked, thay had all acheived independence from the UK

Defence

As SNP policy is for Scotland to be a member of NATO, we will comply with NATO requirements. That doesn't need a treaty with rUK. However, if rUK want to retain their nukes, we will need to put together a timetable to move them out of Faslane/Coulport, and I would expect the Scottish Government to ask for rent until that date

Foreign Relations

Why should treaties with rUK be different from treaties with France or Italy? Firstly, as France & Italy are both members of the EU, most treaties Scotland entered into would be with that organisation. Secondly, in any negotiations between sovereign states (or with a trading bloc), both sides will attempt to maximise their advantage. Why would a treaty with rUK be different?

"Watered-down indy"

The rest of your post is just your usual speculation. "Half Independence" is just devolution. Devolution has failed.

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1 hour ago, lichtgilphead said:

Roddick specifically states that she is looking for something like the EU, not like the 1707 Union of the Parliaments. How does an Independent Scotland making treaties with other sovereign states go against the whole nationalist ethos?

How can we have mutually beneficial cooperation whilst Westminster makes the treaties and imposes legislation on behalf of the whole UK?

When Scotland gets independence, do you really think that the flow of water & electricity over the border will be cut off immediately, and that Faslane & Coulport will be told to gtf on day 1, or do you think that the rUK & Scottish Governments will sit down and negotiate a treaty?

Her use of the term ‘Union’ Will lose the SNP votes, especially when their base are already drifting away, partly due to the perception that they don’t really want independence.

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20 minutes ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

Her use of the term ‘Union’ 

She says she wants an agreement with rUK like the one that the UK had with the European Union. She also says that "what we have now is not a union".

How is she supposed to say this without using the word "union"?

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2 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

Roddick specifically states that she is looking for something like the EU, not like the 1707 Union of the Parliaments. How does an Independent Scotland making treaties with other sovereign states go against the whole nationalist ethos?

How can we have mutually beneficial cooperation whilst Westminster makes the treaties and imposes legislation on behalf of the whole UK?

When Scotland gets independence, do you really think that the flow of water & electricity over the border will be cut off immediately, and that Faslane & Coulport will be told to gtf on day 1, or do you think that the rUK & Scottish Governments will sit down and negotiate a treaty?


Instead of saying 

Quote

I would love an Independent Scotland to be in some sort of union or co-operation agreement with what is currently the rest of the UK

She could have said ‘I’d like to have treaties with rUK’.

Saying you want a Union with them is madness, given the context of the political landscape of over the past 10-15 years, when all the chat has been about trying to leave the union with rUK.

This will lose the SNP votes.

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3 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

Currency

We propose that, on independence, Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling for a period before moving to our policy of adopting a Scottish pound. The change would take place as soon as practicable through a careful, managed and responsible transition, guided by criteria and economic conditions rather than a fixed timetable (my emphasis)

https://www.gov.scot/publications/building-new-scotland-stronger-economy-independence/pages/8/

Using a currency is not the same as sharing a currency, and the plan is to adopt a Scottish Pound asap

Crown

The current SNP policy is to retain King Chuckles the 1/3rd as head of state. That's an SNP policy I disagree with. However, as the Scottish king inherited the English crown in 1603, we have at least an equal claim to the whole parasitical family. 

In addition, Chuckles is also king of Australia, NZ, Canada etc. Last time I looked, thay had all acheived independence from the UK

Defence

As SNP policy is for Scotland to be a member of NATO, we will comply with NATO requirements. That doesn't need a treaty with rUK. However, if rUK want to retain their nukes, we will need to put together a timetable to move them out of Faslane/Coulport, and I would expect the Scottish Government to ask for rent until that date

Foreign Relations

Why should treaties with rUK be different from treaties with France or Italy? Firstly, as France & Italy are both members of the EU, most treaties Scotland entered into would be with that organisation. Secondly, in any negotiations between sovereign states (or with a trading bloc), both sides will attempt to maximise their advantage. Why would a treaty with rUK be different?

"Watered-down indy"

The rest of your post is just your usual speculation. "Half Independence" is just devolution. Devolution has failed.

Currency

'To use the pound sterling for a period..as soon as practicaable'...could be 2 years, 5 years, 10 years. They don't know. Also floating a new currency on International markets requires building up sufficient foreign reserves beforehand..not an overnight process. During the period of using sterling interest rates would of course still be determined by the B of E...that's not 'financial Independence' and whether moving to a Scot currency or not, as said could take some time.

SNP policy as we know, is also to take on a share of rUK debt..what proportion, we don't know, for how long, we don't know.

Nuclear Weapons 

Yes, subject to negotiation..again how long does the 'rent' last for? We don't know

Foreign Relations 

Setting up and running Embassies we do know is expensive. Likely to 'share' Embassies with rUK for some time..how long? We don't know.

Getting back in the EU

Could take up to 10 years..subject to the famous Aquis accord..could be longer.. guess what..don't know. 'If' it happens, hard border with your 'new' trading 'co-operation' partner, England.

An awful lot of 'don't knows' in there for a negotiation which could drag on for some time, and all that is dependent upon a UK govt agreeing to a Ref/or accepting a 'majority' of SNP seats (currently polling at 13).

'Touching distance' (to quote Yousaf)....not quite.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, orfc said:

Next referendum must be within 5 years as that's when Swinney says independence will happen

https://news.stv.tv/politics/independence-for-scotland-can-be-delivered-within-five-years-says-john-swinney

 

Though that swine SIR STUART WINGS has inconveniently pointed out Swindly said pretty much the same in the year 2000

https://wingsoverscotland.com/youve-been-had/

'Within 5 years'...how?

Scenario 1: If current polling holds up, GE- SNP 13 seats/Labour 33.

Scenario 2:Next Holyrood election (based on polling) Labour most seats though clearly short of a majority.

That's 2 out of his 5 years used up..in the next 3 why would the UK govt agree to a Referendum? Unless the polls are spectacularly wrong or there is dramatic change.

Edited by Jedi2
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19 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

Currency

'To use the pound sterling for a period..as soon as practicaable'...could be 2 years, 5 years, 10 years. They don't know. Also floating a new currency on International markets requires building up sufficient foreign reserves beforehand..not an overnight process. During the period of using sterling interest rates would of course still be determined by the B of E...that's not 'financial Independence' and whether moving to a Scot currency or not, as said could take some time.

SNP policy as we know, is also to take on a share of rUK debt..what proportion, we don't know, for how long, we don't know.

Nuclear Weapons 

Yes, subject to negotiation..again how long does the 'rent' last for? We don't know

Foreign Relations 

Setting up and running Embassies we do know is expensive. Likely to 'share' Embassies with rUK for some time..how long? We don't know.

Getting back in the EU

Could take up to 10 years..subject to the famous Aquis accord..could be longer.. guess what..don't know. 'If' it happens, hard border with your 'new' trading 'co-operation' partner, England.

An awful lot of 'don't knows' in there for a negotiation which could drag on for some time, and all that is dependent upon a UK govt agreeing to a Ref/or accepting a 'majority' of SNP seats (currently polling at 13).

'Touching distance' (to quote Yousaf)....not quite.

 

 

All these don't knows are caused by the refusal of the Westminster Government to discuss anything until we vote Yes. So much for the famed British sense of fair play.

And, just in case you hadn't noticed, if Scotland joins the EU, we will trade with rUk on the same basis as the rest of the EU. The UK is making a great job of the Eire/NI & Gibraltar/Spain borders, isn't it. Effectively, they are accepting EU regulations for imports into UK, whilst hamstringing GB companies that export to NI. Brilliant strategy. What's Sir Keirs solution to this UK f*ckup?

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Posted (edited)

The key part there is 'if' Scotland rejoins the EU...need to get the debt levels down to the right levels first, then overcome the potential Spanish veto..and that is after a near decade of cutting public spending and services to get the debt to the right level.

How long does it take an Indy Scotland to strike its own trade deals with other countries in the meantime? How long to negotiate share of rUK debt? How long to prepare for Scot currency? (While cutting public spending). It all still requires (under the SNP's 'proposals' such as they are, to accept being worse off for a decade, before hitting the jackpot)....no mention  of EFTA, no mention of how the Scot currency will operate etc

These points and questions have got nothing to do with the refusal to agree to a Ref. Plans for How an Independent Scotland might work would (you would think) be on the table beforehand. The closest we have come is the infamous Growth Commission, the more 'recent' papers are just vague waffle by comparison.

Keir Starmer isn't in a position to try and improve Brexit at the moment...although he might be at the next renegotiation of its terms.

Will he set out a plan beforehand? I would expect so.

Edited by Jedi2
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6 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

The key part there is 'if' Scotland rejoins the EU...need to get the debt levels down to the right levels first, then overcome the potential Spanish veto..and that is after a near decade of cutting public spending and services to get the debt to the right level.

How long does it take an Indy Scotland to strike its own trade deals with other countries in the meantime? How long to negotiate share of rUK debt? How long to prepare for Scot currency? (While cutting public spending). It all still requires (under the SNP's 'proposals' such as they are, to accept being worse off for a decade, before hitting the jackpot)....no mention  of EFTA, no mention of how the Scot currency will operate etc

These points and questions have got nothing to do with the refusal to agree to a Ref. Plans for How an Independent Scotland might work would (you would think) be on the table beforehand. The closest we have come is the infamous Growth Commission, the more 'recent' papers are just vague waffle by comparison.

Keir Starmer isn't in a position to try and improve Brexit at the moment...although he might be at the next renegotiation of its terms.

Will he set out a plan beforehand? I would expect so.

Starmer with a plan? Jesus! That's the best joke you have come out with yet.

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6 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

The key part there is 'if' Scotland rejoins the EU...need to get the debt levels down to the right levels first, then overcome the potential Spanish veto..and that is after a near decade of cutting public spending and services to get the debt to the right level.

How long does it take an Indy Scotland to strike its own trade deals with other countries in the meantime? How long to negotiate share of rUK debt? How long to prepare for Scot currency? (Which cutting public spending).

These points and questions have got nothing to do with the refusal to agree to a Ref. Plans for How an Independent Scotland might work would (you would think) be on the table beforehand. The closest we have come is the infamous Growth Commission, the more 'recent' papers are just vague waffle by comparison.

Keir Starmer isn't in a position to try and improve Brexit at the moment...although he might be at the next renegotiation of its terms.

Will he set out a plan beforehand? I would expect so.

1) Scotland currently has no debt

2) The Spanish have repeatedly said that they will not veto Scotlands entry to the EU

3) Scotland currently has no debt

4) If Scotland is in the EU, we will use the EUs trade deals (and Scots citizens will be able to access any EU country embassy)

5) If Scotland owes a share of UK debt, it also owes a share of UK assets. If rUK want to keep all the assets, they can keep the debt too. Are you seriously suggesting that the UK debts are bigger than the UK assets, but that you think that things are fine?

6) I was at the Lithuanian banking museum a few years ago. They converted in a day. Initially, they applied a stamp to the existing rouble notes. Given that we already have our own notes in circulation...

7) Yeah. Public spending will be cut. I propose that we start with nukes, Rwanda flights, Crossrail & HS2.

8 ) Your faith in Keir is touching

Now you've exhausted the previously debunked Yoon tropes from 2014, can you maybe provide some original thoughts, as I'm sure you must have done for your PhD.

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'Exhausted Yoon tropes' 😄😄I'm.glad that you have so clearly set out the route map to this (immediately) booming economy and country which will arrive seamlessly post-independence where we have our own currency up and running pretty much immediately, we are debt free, we don't have to cut much public spending (after all we are debt free), we grab a significant portion of UK assets, and are back in the EU pretty much immediately as they are begging us to join.

Sounds like a paradise on earth...if only a single SNP document had set out such utopia.

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1 hour ago, Jedi2 said:

The key part there is 'if' Scotland rejoins the EU...need to get the debt levels down to the right levels first, then overcome the potential Spanish veto..and that is after a near decade of cutting public spending and services to get the debt to the right level.

How long does it take an Indy Scotland to strike its own trade deals with other countries in the meantime? How long to negotiate share of rUK debt? How long to prepare for Scot currency? (While cutting public spending). It all still requires (under the SNP's 'proposals' such as they are, to accept being worse off for a decade, before hitting the jackpot)....no mention  of EFTA, no mention of how the Scot currency will operate etc

These points and questions have got nothing to do with the refusal to agree to a Ref. Plans for How an Independent Scotland might work would (you would think) be on the table beforehand. The closest we have come is the infamous Growth Commission, the more 'recent' papers are just vague waffle by comparison.

Keir Starmer isn't in a position to try and improve Brexit at the moment...although he might be at the next renegotiation of its terms.

Will he set out a plan beforehand? I would expect so.

🙄 Scotland. The only country on the planet that can't self govern, have a currency, trade with other countries., can't be in the EU, not allowed to have debt - isn't the UK debt in the Trillion or something. Tragic stuff from the Unionists. 

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1 minute ago, Jedi2 said:

'Exhausted Yoon tropes' 😄😄I'm.glad that you have so clearly set out the route map to this (immediately) booming economy and country which will arrive seamlessly post-independence where we have our own currency up and running pretty much immediately, we are debt free, we don't have to cut much public spending (after all we are debt free), we grab a significant portion of UK assets, and are back in the EU pretty much immediately as they are begging us to join.

Sounds like a paradise on earth...if only a single SNP document had set out such utopia.

Why not try addressing the points I make instead of putting words in my mouth?

Where did I say anything like that?

Pathetic.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

1) Scotland currently has no debt

2) The Spanish have repeatedly said that they will not veto Scotlands entry to the EU

3) Scotland currently has no debt

4) If Scotland is in the EU, we will use the EUs trade deals (and Scots citizens will be able to access any EU country embassy)

5) If Scotland owes a share of UK debt, it also owes a share of UK assets. If rUK want to keep all the assets, they can keep the debt too. Are you seriously suggesting that the UK debts are bigger than the UK assets, but that you think that things are fine?

6) I was at the Lithuanian banking museum a few years ago. They converted in a day. Initially, they applied a stamp to the existing rouble notes. Given that we already have our own notes in circulation...

7) Yeah. Public spending will be cut. I propose that we start with nukes, Rwanda flights, Crossrail & HS2.

8 ) Your faith in Keir is touching

Now you've exhausted the previously debunked Yoon tropes from 2014, can you maybe provide some original thoughts, as I'm sure you must have done for your PhD.

'Where did I say these things/putting words in my mouth..'..all Highlighted above:

'Debt Free' (in fact, so good that we had to have 'Scotland currently has no debt', twice)

'Almost Immediately setting up our own currency'

'No EU Veto, so the red carpet is out'

'A good portion of UK assets'

'Public spending cuts..don't need to cut the usual targets though..what's needing cut is nuclear weapons (don't disagree), Rwanda flights (don't disagree, neither does Keir Starmer), HS2.

 

Edited by Jedi2
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Posted (edited)

'Recently claiming that the SNP were going down the UDI route'

Indeed. What it highlights is the complete mess of SNP strategy. Recently Yousaf was quoting the (agreed at Conference motion) that a majority of seats at a GE meant Negotiations would begin 

https://www.thenational.scot/news/23855165.humza-yousaf-backs-independence-strategy-based-majority-seats/

What wasn't clearly set out of course was what these Negotiations were..was it to declare that Scotland was now Independent? (ie UDI), was it to ask for another Ref? Was it to negotiate terms of withdrawal from the UK?

A few weeks later we then have Swinney talking about a Referendum being needed and achievable in 'the next 5 years' (seems to have moved on from winning most seats at this years GE)

https://news.stv.tv/politics/independence-for-scotland-can-be-delivered-within-five-years-says-john-swinney

Then we have Emma Roddick saying that 'Indy doesn't mean the end of the Union with England' and calling for an ongoing 'union/co-operation'.

All this is within weeks of each other.

So what is it now? 

Is it 'most seats at the GE' (oh wait...we still have Honest John going for that AND the 5 year plan at the same time)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14kykvgle1o.amp

Is it to build up a 'gradual' persuasion of public opinion for Independence?

https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/holyrood/24303184.swinneys-first-task-bin-indy-papers-start/

Is it 'persuade the UK govt to grant a Ref in 'the next 5 years'?

Is it to persuade the public that an 'ongoing union/co-operation' with England is the best route/tactic?

They don't know themselves.

Edited by Jedi2
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