When will indyref2 happen?

[lichtgilphead]

2 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

Latest polling..Yes 39% No 45% Don't Know 9%.

If that trend continues, 'Yes' will be at around the remaining core SNP Vote probably about 35%.

I know that a 'generation' is a term which is up for grabs but Neil (and I am certainly no fan of his) claim that its dead for a 'generation'...once its below 40% it could be a good few years to move upwards again.

What trend?

YouGov polls since Humza became FM have had Yes at 39, 39, 41, 38, 39, 42, 37, 36 and 39.

No has been at 45, 46, 46, 46, 44, 44, 46, 46, and 45

Undecided has been at 9, 8, 13, 11, 14, 8, 9, 11 and 9

Even in a pretty disastrous period for the SNP, support for Indy has barely moved.

Note that Jedi also uses that old Yoon trick of always quoting the Undecided figure to make the headline Indy figure appear smaller. If the figures he quotes were replicated in a referendum, the result would be No 54% Yes 46%. That's actually an increase for Yes since 2014.

So Jedi, are you going to post figures to demonstrate this downward trend, or are you just havering shite again?

Take your time...

[Lex]

6 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

 

 

 

Note that Jedi also uses that old Yoon trick of always quoting the Undecided figure to make the headline Indy figure appear smaller. If the figures he quotes were replicated in a referendum, the result would be No 54% Yes 46%. That's actually an increase for Yes since 2014.

 

 

 

Just remember reading on this very thread and from other experts over the years that support for independence was going to surge because of The Tories, because of Brexit, because of Boris, because of COVID, because of Truss and because demographics meant all the old duffers who voted no will be dying off. Amongst various other things. 

You telling me that after a decade and all of the above factors, support for independence hasn't actually changed at all? The 1% being within the margin of polling error of course. Must be demoralising for independence supporters seeing such numbers.

The reality is the polling numbers don't really matter because the independence cause is dead anyway. The SNP are in turmoil and are set to lose seats in both the upcoming General Election and Scottish Parliamentary election. A Labour government will be elected to Westminster later this year and they will be elected with plenty of Scottish Labour MP's, the next Westminster government is going to be much more popular in Scotland than the current Tory one.

All that combined with the fact there is zero appetite in Westminster amongst either party to pass another referendum bill for anything, and the supreme court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate on the UK constitution and call a legally binding referendum itself.  I remember hearing that decision was going to cause uproar and civil unrest and marches on the street too. It did not, because most Scottish people just aren't that arsed. It's finished. 

 

[Jedi2]

7 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

What trend?

YouGov polls since Humza became FM have had Yes at 39, 39, 41, 38, 39, 42, 37, 36 and 39.

No has been at 45, 46, 46, 46, 44, 44, 46, 46, and 45

Undecided has been at 9, 8, 13, 11, 14, 8, 9, 11 and 9

Even in a pretty disastrous period for the SNP, support for Indy has barely moved.

Note that Jedi also uses that old Yoon trick of always quoting the Undecided figure to make the headline Indy figure appear smaller. If the figures he quotes were replicated in a referendum, the result would be No 54% Yes 46%. That's actually an increase for Yes since 2014.

So Jedi, are you going to post figures to demonstrate this downward trend, or are you just havering shite again?

Take your time...

Out from under your rock again?

So...by contrast the 'undecided' is actually latent 'Yes'?

And wow..a whole 1% increase for Yes since 2014...that is some achievement for the SNP. Clearly once they sweep the board at the GE and next Holyrood election that figure will be soaring still further

Edited May 1 by Jedi2

[houston_bud]

38 minutes ago, Lex said:

because most Scottish people just aren't that arsed. It's finished. 

I appreciate this line is probably there to get a few bite. But I also think it rings true, my gut tells me that all the polling on this is a bit misleading.

Someone gets asked 'do you think Scotland should be independent?', a lot of folk probably think 'aye, probably'. But they're not dyed in the wool supporters and ultimately aren't going to be out on the streets demanding it. Loads of folk are just pretty apathetic. OK, this is anecdotal but I think of the majority of my mates who voted for it, they still 'support' independence but maybe one of them (out of about 10) is actually particularly strident.

[Alan Twelve]

Given the unbalanced nature of the Scottish news and their huge bias against independence alongisde the political apathy of most of the public, I think it's pretty rermarkable that Yes numbers have remained as high as they have.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

1 hour ago, Lex said:

Just remember reading on this very thread and from other experts over the years that support for independence was going to surge because of The Tories, because of Brexit, because of Boris, because of COVID, because of Truss and because demographics meant all the old duffers who voted no will be dying off. Amongst various other things. 

You telling me that after a decade and all of the above factors, support for independence hasn't actually changed at all? The 1% being within the margin of polling error of course. Must be demoralising for independence supporters seeing such numbers.

The reality is the polling numbers don't really matter because the independence cause is dead anyway. The SNP are in turmoil and are set to lose seats in both the upcoming General Election and Scottish Parliamentary election. A Labour government will be elected to Westminster later this year and they will be elected with plenty of Scottish Labour MP's, the next Westminster government is going to be much more popular in Scotland than the current Tory one.

All that combined with the fact there is zero appetite in Westminster amongst either party to pass another referendum bill for anything, and the supreme court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate on the UK constitution and call a legally binding referendum itself.  I remember hearing that decision was going to cause uproar and civil unrest and marches on the street too. It did not, because most Scottish people just aren't that arsed. It's finished. 

 

Tbqh the numbers are meaningless until there is an actual referendum that focuses people's minds.

Edited May 1 by DeeTillEhDeh

[tirso]

Most of my mates support independence but have lost faith with the SNP.  It does seem like most people 25-40 support independence but maybe that's just my surroundings.

It does seem to me that independence support has grown and was a majority for a period of time in 2020 and 2021 was it?  It's gone up since 2014 but is this largely due to old unionists duffers dying?  

The stars need to align again to a time... a) SNP probably goes into opposition and romps home ten years later b) independence continues to increase in support by a few % points a year.  

 

The other option is SNP never recovers and people lose enthusiasm for it in the same way we used to be able to say you were a "socialist" no problem 20 years ago without much aggro.

The union also doesn't get majority support any more than Independence does.  The people are clearly divided on the issue itself.  Until that changes it will always dominate as a topic but the parties will fluctuate.  

What I do sense is in 2014 lots of people said "Labour left me".  There was a visceral hatred towards a party so long the darling.  SNP has lost support but I don't sense the same level of "hatred"..  it's more a "disappointment".. I may be wrong but I think this is borne out in the Labour fightback.. they are barely keeping breadth with the SNP.  Assuming the SNP do not go extinct in the next elections, I think an SNP fightback will be far stronger next time round than Labour's is now.

All said and done, independence is probably off the table for now but it's not going away forever.  Too much deep seated, young support for it.  It's actual support is higher than ever.  It just needs the political vehicle to have another honeymoon next cycle.    

[ScotiaNostra]

I ndont think it can be undersetimated just how much the SNP in the last 10 years fecked up the best opportunity of gaining independence we have seen. That roughly the same group of clowns who did that are still making the decisions now, still appearing on TV saying the same stuff, still off track and not focused on Indy or the day to day even doesnt hold out much hope for the future.

Edited May 1 by ScotiaNostra

[tirso]

i'd also add given the globalised nature of the world towards large economic blocs it's actually pretty remarkable Scottish people still want to be radical and push independence in such huge numbers.

Given the entirety of the british state and media against it, more or less, it feels correct to point to the fact we are obviously a bone fide nation in our bones.  We probably just missed the boat in the latter and early part of the 19/20th Centuries in becoming an independent state.  If it had got dominion status as expected before WW1, I wonder how things would have panned out.

ultimately i want what the Scottish people want.  I have a preference but really just want our people to decide.  We did that in 2014 but the aftermath should have seen full devo max implemented.  The best situation appears to be recognising we are a nation, having a strong national parliament and deferring to Union Parliament on Foreign affairs. 

What I can't stand are those saying we are "colony" or those saying "pretendy parliament, we're all British" crap.  We're obviously a country with differing views of how we should be set up.  Too many live in a fantasy of Billy brits or put upon Scots.  If we really want independence, we'll vote SNP come what may and give them 65% of the vote or so.  That would change things.  We don't.      

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

2 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

Out from under your rock again?

So...by contrast the 'undecided' is actually latent 'Yes'?

And wow..a whole 1% increase for Yes since 2014...that is some achievement for the SNP. Clearly once they sweep the board at the GE and next Holyrood election that figure will be soaring still further

Polling was generous to Yes in 2014 compared to the actual result too, so there's a good chance the gap is actually wider than recent polls indicate.

[Jedi2]

Let's be honest..Count Binface or the guy who appears as Fish Finger at by-elections, could have moved Indy support up by a stonking 1% over a 10 year period.

So for quality of leadership...Sturgeon, Yousaf, Binface..take your pick 

Edited May 1 by Jedi2

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, Alan Twelve said:

Given the unbalanced nature of the Scottish news and their huge bias against independence alongisde the political apathy of most of the public, I think it's pretty rermarkable that Yes numbers have remained as high as they have.

Yup, considering polling for independence was only around 30% before the referendum and it's rarely dropped below 45% since, it shows that once people are persuaded of the case they seem to stay solid, no matter how the SNP are doing. Unfortunately the same seems to apply to the Unionists.

[Alan Twelve]

6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Yup, considering polling for independence was only around 30% before the referendum and it's rarely dropped below 45% since, it shows that once people are persuaded of the case they seem to stay solid, no matter how the SNP are doing. Unfortunately the same seems to apply to the Unionists.

I can't back this up in any scientific way, but I suspect union support is much softer and needs to be constantly reinforced by a stream of SNP bad/Scottish Govt failure FERRIES/no-one wants a second referendum/what will we use for money?????????????????? type stories. If the reporting was biased the other way we'd already be independent.

[Dan Steele]

31 minutes ago, Alan Twelve said:

If the reporting was biased the other way we'd already be independent

The reporting would only need to be balanced but the chances of that are hovering about zero.

[Highlandmagar]

1 hour ago, Jedi2 said:

Let's be honest..Count Binface or the guy who appears as Fish Finger at by-elections, could have moved Indy support up by a stonking 1% over a 10 year period.

So for quality of leadership...Sturgeon, Yousaf, Binface..take your pick 

Quality of leadership?? Haha. Just look at Westminster's leaders. God help Scotland after next GE.

Edited May 1 by Highlandmagar

[tirso]

2 hours ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

Polling was generous to Yes in 2014 compared to the actual result too, so there's a good chance the gap is actually wider than recent polls indicate.

Yes was ahead for something like 12 polls in a row in 2022.  That just didn't happen in lead up to 2014.  very few Yes majority polls.

I think people hoped the polling was wrong more than anything, that polling a national question may not be easily done.

i don't think it can be denied Yes has increased since then and we're more or less 50/50 judging by polls.  I know it's just a gut feel but it kind of feels that way as well just in conversation with people.  or am I a mad loon haha?

[lichtgilphead]

8 hours ago, Lex said:

You telling me that after a decade and all of the above factors, support for independence hasn't actually changed at all? The 1% being within the margin of polling error of course. Must be demoralising for independence supporters seeing such numbers.

No. That's not what I'm saying at all.

As we all know, the undemocratic UK Government ignore any demand for a second referendum, even though every WM & Holyrood election in Scotland since 2014 has been won by Indy supporting parties with a manifesto commitment to a further referendum. Accordingly, I have no idea what would happen if a referendum was held tomorrow. 

What I said was that one of the least Yes-friendly pollsters is currently reporting that Indy support is holding steady, thus disproving Jedi's assertion that it is on a downward trend. There are other polling organisations active in this field, and many have shown a Yes lead over the course of Humza's tenure. Pollsters that have shown a Yes lead include Redfield & Wilton, Ipsos, Find Out Now and Opinium, (on multiple occasions. To show a Yes lead requires a minimum 5.3% swing to Yes since the 2014 result.

Whilst polling is not currently showing a consistent Yes lead, it is clear that the general trend has been toward Yes since 2014. Here's my evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence#Polls_using_the_2014_referendum_question

9 hours ago, Lex said:

the independence cause is dead anyway. The SNP are in turmoil and are set to lose seats in both the upcoming General Election and Scottish Parliamentary election.

My recollection is that recent polling isuggests that the SNP will still win more seats than Labour in both the upcoming Holyrood & WM elections. That's hardly very impressive if it is the best that Labour can do when the SNP are "in turmoil", 

9 hours ago, Lex said:

A Labour government will be elected to Westminster later this year and they will be elected with plenty of Scottish Labour MP's, the next Westminster government is going to be much more popular in Scotland than the current Tory one.

Given that Labour & Tory policies aren't very different, do you think anyone will notice a difference?

8 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

So...by contrast the 'undecided' is actually latent 'Yes'?

Ah, the good old Jedi tactic of pretending I've said something that I haven't even suggested.

Do you have comprehension problems, or can you not do simple arithmetic?

If a poll suggests that Yes is at 39% and No is at 45%. That only adds up to 84%. There are a further 16% of respondees to the poll that haven't been included (this 16% is made up of don't knows, undecided or refused to say)

If we strip out the 16%, this gives a Yes figure of 39 divided by84 i.e. 46% and a No figure of 45 divided by 84 i.e. 54%. 

If you look at these figures , No has gone up by more than Yes. That's because No were ahead in the original figures before we stripped out the DK's.

Anyway, I'm still waiting for your proof of the downward Yes trend that you speculated about in your earlier post. Given your inability to understand simple arithmetic, I suspect that I will be waiting quite some time

8 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

And wow..a whole 1% increase for Yes since 2014...that is some achievement for the SNP. Clearly once they sweep the board at the GE and next Holyrood election that figure will be soaring still further

Yes, a whole 1% increase when comparing the result of the referendum against polling carried out by one of the most No-friendly pollsters available. If No is still winning by nearly 10%, why are the Yoons at Westminster running scared of holeing Indyref2? Surely the stonking win for No that you appear to be predicting would put the Indy question to bed forever?

6 hours ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

Polling was generous to Yes in 2014 compared to the actual result too, so there's a good chance the gap is actually wider than recent polls indicate.

As we previously discussed, all the polling you refer to was before "The Vow".  Your argument is based upon simplistic pish.

Last time, you suggested that the vow had no effect whatsoever on the final result, but didn't provide any evidence to back up your view. I ask again, why did the Yoon side resort to a last minute bribe to try to influence the result if they thought it would have no effect?

In addition, pollsters continually refine their polling methods to take account of any factors that may induce errors (see "shy tories"). They don't normally disclose these weighting factors. Do you really think that they would not have factored in this over-generous polling to Yes if they believed that it was relevant?

 

 

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

21 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

No. That's not what I'm saying at all.

As we all know, the undemocratic UK Government ignore any demand for a second referendum, even though every WM & Holyrood election in Scotland since 2014 has been won by Indy supporting parties with a manifesto commitment to a further referendum. Accordingly, I have no idea what would happen if a referendum was held tomorrow. 

What I said was that one of the least Yes-friendly pollsters is currently reporting that Indy support is holding steady, thus disproving Jedi's assertion that it is on a downward trend. There are other polling organisations active in this field, and many have shown a Yes lead over the course of Humza's tenure. Pollsters that have shown a Yes lead include Redfield & Wilton, Ipsos, Find Out Now and Opinium, (on multiple occasions. To show a Yes lead requires a minimum 5.3% swing to Yes since the 2014 result.

Whilst polling is not currently showing a consistent Yes lead, it is clear that the general trend has been toward Yes since 2014. Here's my evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence#Polls_using_the_2014_referendum_question

My recollection is that recent polling isuggests that the SNP will still win more seats than Labour in both the upcoming Holyrood & WM elections. That's hardly very impressive if it is the best that Labour can do when the SNP are "in turmoil", 

Given that Labour & Tory policies aren't very different, do you think anyone will notice a difference?

Ah, the good old Jedi tactic of pretending I've said something that I haven't even suggested.

Do you have comprehension problems, or can you not do simple arithmetic?

If a poll suggests that Yes is at 39% and No is at 45%. That only adds up to 84%. There are a further 16% of respondees to the poll that haven't been included (this 16% is made up of don't knows, undecided or refused to say)

If we strip out the 16%, this gives a Yes figure of 39 divided by84 i.e. 46% and a No figure of 45 divided by 84 i.e. 54%. 

If you look at these figures , No has gone up by more than Yes. That's because No were ahead in the original figures before we stripped out the DK's.

Anyway, I'm still waiting for your proof of the downward Yes trend that you speculated about in your earlier post. Given your inability to understand simple arithmetic, I suspect that I will be waiting quite some time

Yes, a whole 1% increase when comparing the result of the referendum against polling carried out by one of the most No-friendly pollsters available. If No is still winning by nearly 10%, why are the Yoons at Westminster running scared of holeing Indyref2? Surely the stonking win for No that you appear to be predicting would put the Indy question to bed forever?

As we previously discussed, all the polling you refer to was before "The Vow".  Your argument is based upon simplistic pish.

Last time, you suggested that the vow had no effect whatsoever on the final result, but didn't provide any evidence to back up your view. I ask again, why did the Yoon side resort to a last minute bribe to try to influence the result if they thought it would have no effect?

In addition, pollsters continually refine their polling methods to take account of any factors that may induce errors (see "shy tories"). They don't normally disclose these weighting factors. Do you really think that they would not have factored in this over-generous polling to Yes if they believed that it was relevant?

The gap both before and after The Vow was significantly smaller than the gap from the actual result, which was a whopping and decisive 11%
 

I do believe The Vow had no effect.  There was no post-Vow spike for No.  Even if it did, so what?  It was kept via the Smith Commission.  Dodgy polling forced the national parties to come up with it, but I wish they hadn’t.

 

I think the national parties absolutely thought it’d have an effect, but that it turned out not to.

 

If the polling companies refine their polling methods to account for things for the Shy Tory Effect, then they aren’t doing a very good job of it, and it’d be a very hard task.  I’d like to see your proof of this.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

The idea that an issue supported by roughly 40-50% of the electorate is just going to magically disappear is of course stupid. For every quote about a surge in support because of Boris/Brexit/Truss there's been one for how 'the independence issue is now dead' for the last 10 years, as equally there's been no surge in support of the union despite the ongoing issues with the SNP and the absence of any serious campaign or movement for independence outside of pre election waffle since Sturgeon took it in house.

[Jedi2]

Given that @lichtgilphead has slithered out again...as 'recently' as January of this year (some) polls had Yes on 50% (presumably they are the 'accurate' ones as its only ones with a Yes lead which count). Indeed there was a previous polling trend of between 45-50% Yes.

Latest polls suggest 39. I know that an intellectual collosus such as @lichtgilphead expert on all subjects and PhD of Mathematics to boot doesn't regard 50 moving down to 39 as a 'downward' trend (therefore it isnt), but still.

Next up, comfortable SNP wins to come at both the GE and next Holyrood election...Time will tell.