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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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Even after her comments yesterday about not holding indyref2 in 2017, she still hasn't changed her stance since the brexit vote. She is doing exactly what she said from day 1.

Obviously the press need to sell papers and TV stations need good viewing figures going by some of the headlines we've seen recently. But as I've said, she hasn't veered off in another direction. She will do everything she can to keep Scotland in the single market. When it becomes clear it's not possible, she will offer the people of Scotland the choice of independence

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Even after her comments yesterday about not holding indyref2 in 2017, she still hasn't changed her stance since the brexit vote. She is doing exactly what she said from day 1.
Obviously the press need to sell papers and TV stations need good viewing figures going by some of the headlines we've seen recently. But as I've said, she hasn't veered off in another direction. She will do everything she can to keep Scotland in the single market. When it becomes clear it's not possible, she will offer the people of Scotland the choice of independence

What can she do realistically, to keep Scotland in the single market, whilst The UK as a whole is preparing a negotiated settlement to leave. Serious question? It seems the decision has already been made, so what can the Scottish Gov do to counter that? Are we saying even at this late stage, we can somehow broker a separate deal?
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27 minutes ago, RedRob72 said:


What can she do realistically, to keep Scotland in the single market, whilst The UK as a whole is preparing a negotiated settlement to leave. Serious question? It seems the decision has already been made, so what can the Scottish Gov do to counter that? Are we saying even at this late stage, we can somehow broker a separate deal?

But but but we're equal partners in this glorious union of nations, you said. Are you suggesting that was a lie and the Scottish government can do nothing to counter a decision made by the UK cabinet?

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But but but we're equal partners in this glorious union of nations, you said. Are you suggesting that was a lie and the Scottish government can do nothing to counter a decision made by the UK cabinet?

It's a genuine question, what can the Sco Gov actually do whilst staring through the window from the outside? If the answer is 'nothing'. then why hold back on demanding a 2nd ref in 2017?
Is she saying we'll just take the hand we're dealt with (on Brexit) and then decide?
As previously mentioned, what IF No wins again, and we (Scotland) have had no input or contribution whatsoever to our future position in Europe?
Seems a strange position to take up. But I suppose if she can mask it as 'biding her time', or 'keeping the powder dry' for the time being, the Party faithful might just buy it as a principled stance?
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16 minutes ago, RedRob72 said:


It's a genuine question, what can the Sco Gov actually do whilst staring through the window from the outside? If the answer is 'nothing'. then why hold back on demanding a 2nd ref in 2017?
Is she saying we'll just take the hand we're dealt with (on Brexit) and then decide?
As previously mentioned, what IF No wins again, and we (Scotland) have had no input or contribution whatsoever to our future position in Europe?
Seems a strange position to take up. But I suppose if she can mask it as 'biding her time', or 'keeping the powder dry' for the time being, the Party faithful might just buy it as a principled stance?

I'll take that as a "no, the equal partnership of nations rhetoric was a mendacious delusion". And yet you still revel in the Scottish government being "on the outside" because "the decision has been made".

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There is more at issue than just Brexit negotiations.

If the Supreme Court rule that the Scotland act isn't worth the paper it is printed on (as the UK government argued) then that's more than enough to call a second referendum.  A soft, brittle, hard, funky or deviant brexit, is but one strand from a list of post-indyref betrayals.

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41 minutes ago, RedRob72 said:


It's a genuine question, what can the Sco Gov actually do whilst staring through the window from the outside? If the answer is 'nothing'. then why hold back on demanding a 2nd ref in 2017?
Is she saying we'll just take the hand we're dealt with (on Brexit) and then decide?
As previously mentioned, what IF No wins again, and we (Scotland) have had no input or contribution whatsoever to our future position in Europe?
Seems a strange position to take up. But I suppose if she can mask it as 'biding her time', or 'keeping the powder dry' for the time being, the Party faithful might just buy it as a principled stance?

 

It's not a strange position and you're being completely dishonest by claiming it is. Sturgeon's best gambit is to consistently threaten a referendum if Scotland's interests aren't met then watch the comedy team down at Westminster continue to screw up their suicidal exit from the EU. 

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1 hour ago, RedRob72 said:


What can she do realistically, to keep Scotland in the single market, whilst The UK as a whole is preparing a negotiated settlement to leave. Serious question? It seems the decision has already been made, so what can the Scottish Gov do to counter that? Are we saying even at this late stage, we can somehow broker a separate deal?

It's no use jumping the gun before article 50 is triggered. She has to deal in definites. The UK is the member State and will lead negotiations. What Nicola is saying is keep Scotland in mind when you're negotiating. Get us a deal on staying in the single market - whether that's part of a deal for the UK or a different deal for Scotland.

If May turns round and officially says "No" to a separate deal for Scotland and we won't even try to keep either the UK or Scotland in the single market.

That's when the trigger will be pulled on indyref2 

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1 hour ago, RedRob72 said:


What can she do realistically, to keep Scotland in the single market, whilst The UK as a whole is preparing a negotiated settlement to leave. Serious question? It seems the decision has already been made, so what can the Scottish Gov do to counter that? Are we saying even at this late stage, we can somehow broker a separate deal?

Well, the Scottish government has set out it's stall on how it thinks it could be done, if the UK government has been paying any attention to that is anyone's guess but I'd assume not. Still, any referendum announcement would have to wait for:

1) Triggering of article 50, presumably March.

2) Confirmation of a Hard Brexit negotiating position, for all parts of the UK presumably after March

If either of those slip by a couple of months from March, then you leave little time to get a referendum campaign up and running, and resolved by the end of 2017, even allowing for a short 4-6 month campaign. Besides, the council elections are in May and as small time as that can seem, it's a chance to wrest control of Labour's remaining bastions of influence in Scotland. Something that would definitely help in a coming referendum.

2017 was never realistic, and I doubt anyone on the Yes side had it penciled in. Middle of 2018 seems more realistic as a trigger.

It'll also be interesting to see how the NI situation develops. Given the pro-remain majority there, the consequence of a probable hard border between north and south at the very least would force the Uk government to firm up exactly how they intend to keep the border open in a hurry, lest the border be moved to the Irish sea....

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Given the split between Unionist remainers, unionist brexiters, nationalist remainers and nationalist brexiteers

It seems inevitable that the majority of people aren't going to get what they actually want

Too true, the only way out is to rebalance the equation by converting brextiteers& unionists to remainers & grown ups. [emoji6]
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I'll take that as a "no, the equal partnership of nations rhetoric was a mendacious delusion". And yet you still revel in the Scottish government being "on the outside" because "the decision has been made".

I'm not 'revelling' in anything, I'm simply suggesting that she might achieve more influence from the inside rather than threatening from the sidelines, that is all.
I guess it was the same argument for many with the bigger picture of Brexit.
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4 minutes ago, RedRob72 said:


I'm not 'revelling' in anything, I'm simply suggesting that she might achieve more influence from the inside rather than threatening from the sidelines, that is all.
I guess it was the same argument for many with the bigger picture of Brexit.

Influence is obtained by controlling something that someone else would rather they controlled. The threat of independence has long been the driver towards devolution in Scotland. Likewise the threat of independence, from a Westminster point of view, the diminishing of the UK as an entity is our only bargaining chip, our only influence. Exactly how are we to exact any kind of leverage on Westminster's Brexit deliberations by throwing away that card? How exactly is our position enhanced by basically saying: No matter how bad this deal gets, we'll take it.

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22 minutes ago, DublinMagyar said:


Too true, the only way out is to rebalance the equation by converting brextiteers& unionists to remainers & grown ups. emoji6.png

Or remainers could get lobotomies to cure their intellectual elitism
 

Edited by topcat(The most tip top)
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What can she do realistically, to keep Scotland in the single market, whilst The UK as a whole is preparing a negotiated settlement to leave. Serious question? It seems the decision has already been made, so what can the Scottish Gov do to counter that? Are we saying even at this late stage, we can somehow broker a separate deal?

She can't but has to at least explore the possibility however unlikely that may be.
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22 minutes ago, renton said:

Influence is obtained by controlling something that someone else would rather they controlled. The threat of independence has long been the driver towards devolution in Scotland. Likewise the threat of independence, from a Westminster point of view, the diminishing of the UK as an entity is our only bargaining chip, our only influence. Exactly how are we to exact any kind of leverage on Westminster's Brexit deliberations by throwing away that card? How exactly is our position enhanced by basically saying: No matter how bad this deal gets, we'll take it.

Pretty much

The more reasons Theresa May has to pursue some kind of wishy washy single market  membership, free(ish) movement compromise solution instead of letting the lunatic wing of her party drive her into Faragist folly the better.

And not jeopardising the existence of the UK would be just such a reason.

Of course she might share the overblown optimism of some of the more excitable Britnats here about her chances on an Indyref2 but given what happened to her immediate predecessor when he staked everything on a referendum I suspect she won't feel that keen to take that risk.

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2 hours ago, renton said:

Influence is obtained by controlling something that someone else would rather they controlled. The threat of independence has long been the driver towards devolution in Scotland. Likewise the threat of independence, from a Westminster point of view, the diminishing of the UK as an entity is our only bargaining chip, our only influence. Exactly how are we to exact any kind of leverage on Westminster's Brexit deliberations by throwing away that card? How exactly is our position enhanced by basically saying: No matter how bad this deal gets, we'll take it.

 

I'll be honest and say the only solution I was seeing from RedRob's post was that Sturgeon should turn heel and join the Tories.

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3 hours ago, RedRob72 said:


I'm not 'revelling' in anything, I'm simply suggesting that she might achieve more influence from the inside rather than threatening from the sidelines, that is all.
I guess it was the same argument for many with the bigger picture of Brexit.

What exactly do you mean by "the inside"? She has proposed Brexit priorities from a Scottish perspective and invited the UK government to consider them. You then (finally) admit that Scotland is not an equal partner in this Union by whining that these priorities can be binned by Theresa May and her cabinet, and suggesting instead that Scotland's leader work "inside" something.

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I'll be honest and say the only solution I was seeing from RedRob's post was that Sturgeon should turn heel and join the Tories.

And you see a problem with that? I think she might be a very useful addition to the ranks!![emoji6]
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