When will indyref2 happen?

[lichtgilphead]

1 minute ago, Jedi said:

Ah, but we keep hearing 'get Independence and then vote in whoever you like'.

The idea that a Tory govt is 'gone from Scotland forever' doesn't entirely hold. Who knows what the picture might be in 15/20 years time..you could still have a Tory (or some other right wing party) in power. Or is that okay because they are 'our' Tories?

Don't disagree that an incoming Lab govt might be there for 10/15 years as well, but the Tories are genuinely damaged in England at the moment..it will take a whole for them to get back their support there 

So, you agree that the Tory party will get back into power at some point if we remain in the UK, but that a right wing party *might* get into power at some point in the future in iScotland? I'm willing to take that chance.

Of course, for a right wing party to get into power in Scotland would mean that they would have to win 65 seats in a parliament elected under a proportional representation system. Compared with FPTP in the UK, that's practically impossible.

Please think before you type.

[Guest Jedi]

So you agree that getting rid of the Tories 'forever' doesn't actually apply with Independence.Yes, under current circumstances, can't see then taking 65 seats in the next two or three elections. After that? Who knows.

Of course a Labour govt can be replaced by the Tories again in 10/15 whatever years.However politics can change rather dramatically depending on circumstances. If anyone had suggested 10/12 years ago that the SNP would dominate Scotland in the way they do now, it would have been considered 'very unlikely' as well 

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Jedi

[carpetmonster]

I’ll use these posts as a mine of information if I’m ever commissioned to write the objection handling manual for the worst call centre on Earth. 

[lichtgilphead]

7 minutes ago, Jedi said:

So you agree that getting rid of the Tories 'forever' doesn't actually apply with Independence.Yes, under current circumstances, can't see then taking 65 seats in the next two or three elections. After that? Who knows.

Of course a Labour govt can be replaced by the Tories again in 10/15 whatever years.However politics can change rather dramatically depending on circumstances. If anyone had suggested 10/12 years ago that the SNP would dominate Scotland in the way they do now, it would have been considered 'very unlikely' as well 

 

You are just being ridiculous now.

FPTP allows a party to win a majority at Westminster with as little as ~35% of the vote.

To win outright at Holyrood under PR needs ~50%.

Are you seriously suggesting that the Scottish electorate will change their views so dramatically? 

(BTW, 10/12 years ago, the SNP were already the biggest party at Holyrood and were running a minority government. Plus ça change)

 

[Benjamin_Nevis]

1 hour ago, Jedi said:

Transport/Green targets and Education. How are they doing on Health?

Also, if the SNP are getting 'some' things wrong, but still deserve a vote as a 'means to an end', does the same not apply to Labour? Ie poor attitude on immigration and Brexit without a doubt, (and yes, not falling over themselves to enact a 2nd Indy Ref etc) but a 'means to an end' in getting rid of a Tory govt.

 

No they don't. The SNP remain the dominant party in Scotland, partly because the opposition are fucking terrible, but largely because they aren't making nearly enough mistakes in power for people to want to vote for anyone else. Labour don't deserve to get into power on the basis of "Och let's give someone else a shot at beating the tories" because we already have a party well capable of repeatedly doing that, and frankly because Scottish voters largely do not trust Labour.

Like many others I used to vote Labour and did so in 92, 97, 2001 and 2011. However given my line of work since 2013 I'd never vote for a party again which has sat on its hands through the worst excesses of Tory "welfare reform" and indeed brought in several aspects of welfare reform themselves which have hammered the poorest in society. Speculation of course, but i don't think for a nanosecond that a Labour administration in Scotland over the last few years would have made any attempt at things like mitigating the bedroom tax, bringing in Scottish Child Payment, or establishing the Scottish Welfare Fund to replace the shitshow of Crisis Loans. 

 

16 minutes ago, Jedi said:

So you agree that getting rid of the Tories 'forever' doesn't actually apply with Independence.Yes, under current circumstances, can't see then taking 65 seats in the next two or three elections. After that? Who knows.

Of course a Labour govt can be replaced by the Tories again in 10/15 whatever years.However politics can change rather dramatically depending on circumstances. If anyone had suggested 10/12 years ago that the SNP would dominate Scotland in the way they do now, it would have been considered 'very unlikely' as well 

The Tories haven't been dominant in Scotland since about the 1950s.

[Guest Jedi]

I have said it many times, the SNP aren't daft, and I certainly credit them with a very centralised tight knit structure with a small cadre around the leader who stick to being on-message. Largely that message is 'Support Independence? Then you have to vote for us,..its a means to an end'. Record in govt largely doesn't matter.

Of course any party in power for 15 years gets some things right and yes, mitigating the bedroom tax, bringing in Child Payments etc..all well and good.

They certainly aren't radical (and aren't meant to be). The record since 2014 on health, education, transport, the environment, use of taxation, and now dealing with public sector pay and service delivery, as well as cosying up to big business and big money, would at least put some administrations under pressure.

However, with a 'no alternative to us on Independence' combined with, yes, a weak opposition, (Richard Leonard, Jim Murphy and Kezia Dugdale were all disasters since 2014), means that they can continue in govt for the most part, without scrutiny of what they actually do.

Edited January 3, 2023 by Jedi

[Guest Jedi]

24 minutes ago, Benjamin_Nevis said:

 

24 minutes ago, Benjamin_Nevis said:

The Tories haven't been dominant in Scotland since about the 1950s.

No indeed.But Labour were dominant in Scotland for around 50 years and look where they are now....things can change, and a Tory/right wing govt at some point is still 'possible'.

Given your line of work, you couldn't vote Labour..which is fair enough.

Given my line of work, I certainly couldn't vote SNP either.

[StellarHibee]

9 hours ago, Jedi said:

Ah, but we keep hearing 'get Independence and then vote in whoever you like'.

The idea that a Tory govt is 'gone from Scotland forever' doesn't entirely hold. Who knows what the picture might be in 15/20 years time..you could still have a Tory (or some other right wing party) in power. Or is that okay because they are 'our' Tories?

Don't disagree that an incoming Lab govt might be there for 10/15 years as well, but the Tories are genuinely damaged in England at the moment..it will take a whole for them to get back their support there 

We'll be rid of Westminster forever and that's good enough.

The problem isn't simply down to the tories (as rotten as they are), but the entirety of the establishment. Making your point about voting Labour completely redundant.

[Salt n Vinegar]

10 hours ago, Jedi said:

 

No indeed.But Labour were dominant in Scotland for around 50 years and look where they are now....things can change, and a Tory/right wing govt at some point is still 'possible'.

Given your line of work, you couldn't vote Labour..which is fair enough.

Given my line of work, I certainly couldn't vote SNP either.

A Tory/right wing government might be possible in an independent Scotland but unlike the present shambolic Tory gang at Westminster they'd have to be promoting and implementing (if elected) policies that appeal to the Scottish electorate. 

"We" could only get a Tory/right wing government if "we" vote for one. 

[Clown Job]

The UK is in meltdown with a corrupt government running it into the ground and all you hear from Labour is….

No to rejoining the EU / single market (without explanation why)

No jocks, you won’t be allowed to decide your own future.

They won’t do any sort of deal with the SNP, even if it means the Tories will get back into power 

Labour are absolutely pathetic and pointless

[StellarHibee]

20 minutes ago, Clown Job said:

The UK is in meltdown with a corrupt government running it into the ground and all you hear from Labour is….

No to rejoining the EU / single market (without explanation why)

No jocks, you won’t be allowed to decide your own future.

They won’t do any sort of deal with the SNP, even if it means the Tories will get back into power 

Labour are absolutely pathetic and pointless

Well said Mr Breen.

[strichener]

15 hours ago, Wee Bully said:

How are they doing on health?  Better than all the other parts of the UK.

Are they really?  I assume you are basing this on health outcomes?

[KirkieRR]

16 hours ago, Jedi said:

Also, if the SNP are getting 'some' things wrong, but still deserve a vote as a 'means to an end', does the same not apply to Labour? Ie poor attitude on immigration and Brexit without a doubt, (and yes, not falling over themselves to enact a 2nd Indy Ref etc) but a 'means to an end' in getting rid of a Tory govt.

 

You're misrepresenting me. I said I didn't think the SNP were very good. It's their conpetence, generally, rather than their policies. If you could convince me that Scottish Labour policies were similar (actually, your party tends to stick to the SNP ARE NAZIS AND SO ARE YOU IF YOU VOTE FOR THEM! line that has been losing votes since 2007, but hey) to the SNP but that their candidates were gushing, overflowing fountains of ability, talent and competence, you might move me a little.

But, sniggers, they're really not, are they?

[Guest Jedi]

34 minutes ago, KirkieRR said:

You're misrepresenting me. I said I didn't think the SNP were very good. It's their conpetence, generally, rather than their policies. If you could convince me that Scottish Labour policies were similar (actually, your party tends to stick to the SNP ARE NAZIS AND SO ARE YOU IF YOU VOTE FOR THEM! line that has been losing votes since 2007, but hey) to the SNP but that their candidates were gushing, overflowing fountains of ability, talent and competence, you might move me a little.

But, sniggers, they're really not, are they?

Must admit that I have never been in the company of a Labour voter or supporter who has referred to the SNP as 'Nazi's'.

If any parties 'policies' aren't 'very good', does that not transfer over to their 'competence' in running a govt? ie if you feel that their policy approach is wrong, their competence doesn't really follow.

As said, competence wise, Murphy, Dugdale and Leonard were disasters. Sarwar, imo is a much more 'competent' leader though.

It has long been an accusation levelled at Holyrood that it is a home for 2nd or 3rd Division politicians (of all parties) while the 'more' talented go to Westminster. Maybe not just Labour MSP's who fail the 'competence' test.

[btb]

Just a pity Sarwar's a throwback to Wilsonesque Labour with that can't be exploitation if it's one of ours doing it attitude.

[Granny Danger]

Going back to the thread topic.  The answer is next year with the GE being a proxy.

Don’t see there being a GE prior to 2024 and I reckon it will be Johnson in charge of the Tories when it happens.

However much the arse cheeks try to discredit it I can see the pro-Independence parties getting over 50% of the vote.

 

[Clown Job]

1 hour ago, Jedi said:

Sarwar, imo is a much more 'competent' leader though.

But he’s not really a leader though is he? 

His boss is the Right Honourable Member of Parliament for Holborn and St Pancras in London

He has no real power or influence

Scottish Labour isn’t a party (and I’m not even sure why they’re allow to stand under that name)

This is one of the reasons why people don’t take them that seriously

If Labour says there’s no case for us rejoining the EU / Single Market then Sarwar has to go along with that 

If you want to speak to the person I’m charge, you don’t speak to Sarwar

The so called “leaders” in the Jock outposts should be treated with utter contempt 

I want to see a real leaders debate in Scotland, I want to see Surgeon share a stage with Stramer and Sunak to discuss Scottish issues 

They won’t do it as they know they’ll get shown up badly and they won’t be playing to an English gallery 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Clown Job

[Guest Jedi]

I have no doubt Sturgeon will be appearing on the leaders debates down south with Starmer, Sunak et al.

She will of course be standing on a single platform in the GE then..'vote for us and we will negotiate Independece'.

Any other issue...health, education, the economy, jobs, the Environment she will have to turn back to 'if we were Independent..'

[Antlion]

1 hour ago, Clown Job said:

 

The so called “leaders” in the Jock outposts should be treated with utter contempt 

 

We could take our lead on that from how their party leaders treat them.

[Gordon EF]

On 02/01/2023 at 22:57, Jedi said:

Ah, but we keep hearing 'get Independence and then vote in whoever you like'.

The idea that a Tory govt is 'gone from Scotland forever' doesn't entirely hold. Who knows what the picture might be in 15/20 years time..you could still have a Tory (or some other right wing party) in power. Or is that okay because they are 'our' Tories?

Don't disagree that an incoming Lab govt might be there for 10/15 years as well, but the Tories are genuinely damaged in England at the moment..it will take a whole for them to get back their support there 

That's an obtuse way to look at it. Of course absolutely anything could possibly happen but it's more sensible to look at probabilities. An independent Scotland has a far lower probability of electing a Tory government than the UK. Nobody with a functioning brain thinks differently.