ropy Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 18 hours ago, ropy said: I genuinely remembered it as 19 league games (half a season) without a win, need to go back to the fixture list. The stat I was confusing it with was 1 win in 19 which is one win in half a season. Which makes the other half a not bad set of results. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swello Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 2 hours ago, Handsome_Devil said: I still think it's highly unlikely we'll make it but even if we do, for the sake of argument, four points is a lot to make up in five games. Psychologically it's little - as we remember from our own pant-wetting in this scenario - but in practice you're probably looking at two zeros v the OF and you can expect St Mirren to benefit by the league scheduling our trip to Paisley last, so the margin for error in two tough games - Killie on the plastic, Hearts at home - is tiny. Essentially I'd love to have round 33 being live but even if it all works out, I wouldn't be checking where the passports are sadly. To be honest - I wasn't really thinking about us and Europe as a serious proposition - top 6 is enough of a stretch but Dundee or Hibs would probably have a good shout at it. In fact us making the Top 6 is the ideal thing for Saints as the gap would be the biggest and not one that we would be likely to overturn as you point out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ropy Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 For us to get top six we need to get 3 points on a day that St Mirren play Celtic. If things went to form the gap there would be 4 points. For us to get Europe we would need to beat St Mirren meaning the gap would be 1 point. We would have to overcome that point deficit in matches against the top 4, by that I mean Kilmarnock. Also Aberdeen not to win the cup. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gallus Numpty Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 1 hour ago, RandomGuy. said: It's more likely than not isn't it? Beat Hibs at home and wait on Dundee bottling it at Pittodrie. Job done. Anything that requires us winning never feels in any way "likely". 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 I still think there's one too many variables. Can see us winning and Dundee taking one point from their last two or everything going our way but we drop points to Hibs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ropy Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 7 minutes ago, YassinMoutaouakil said: I still think there's one too many variables. Can see us winning and Dundee taking one point from their last two or everything going our way but we drop points to Hibs. Chrissy Cadden to take out Theo Bair and the dream is over. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vietnam91 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 8 minutes ago, YassinMoutaouakil said: I still think there's one too many variables. Can see us winning and Dundee taking one point from their last two or everything going our way but we drop points to Hibs. "Is it always like this?" ..... yes mate, all the time! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 3 minutes ago, ropy said: Chrissy Cadden to take out Theo Bair and the dream is over. I will lose it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowsdower Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Dundee will beat Aberdeen if it comes to it. Aberdeen are soft and think they're safe, which they probably are. Being in with a fair shout of the top six in the last pre split game is great considering the run we had. I absolutely would prefer losing 5 games in the top six over being best of the bottom six. For one, it's more money, and also I'd rather f**k up the title for someone (ideally with a goal from Oli Shaw), over dooming Ross County to a playoff that they're going to win anyway. I don't think it matters what half were in, Theo Bair will still find his way to 20 goals. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 2 hours ago, Gallus Numpty said: Anything that requires us winning never feels in any way "likely". Just substitute you winning for Hibs losing, then. They've not won away since December 9th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capt_oats Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 (edited) 57 minutes ago, rowsdower said: Dundee will beat Aberdeen if it comes to it. Aberdeen are soft and think they're safe, which they probably are. Being in with a fair shout of the top six in the last pre split game is great considering the run we had. I absolutely would prefer losing 5 games in the top six over being best of the bottom six. For one, it's more money, and also I'd rather f**k up the title for someone (ideally with a goal from Oli Shaw), over dooming Ross County to a playoff that they're going to win anyway. I don't think it matters what half were in, Theo Bair will still find his way to 20 goals. I'm kind of the opposite on this tbh. Like, don't get me wrong - all things being equal, if we have a good team I'd far rather be in the Top 6 than not and to be clear us getting Top 6 next week would be very, very funny but I think there's definitely an upside to being best of the bottom 6 in a season like this. Not least we've already seen the no wins in X games crowd getting bent out of shape this season and given Kettlewell is still getting grief even after we're winning games at the moment per @crazylegsjoe_mfc's excellent post earlier I can't see that us losing 5 on the spin in the Top 6 and getting leathered on someone's trophy day is going to do anything for vibes. Assuming we're safe early then landing the plane in 7th or 8th with the sort of post-split run we had last season would be absolutely fine for me. Edited April 7 by capt_oats 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowsdower Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 I dont actually think we'd lose 5, but that seems to be whats generally mooted as the downside of top six. With absolutely nothing to lose, we could be a dangerous prospect for the teams that have something to play for. Then you have killie and hearts just seeing out the season... I was at peace with "just don't be stranded at the bottom come the split" in December, so I'm not going to be distraught if we don't get it done next week. On another subject, I can't wait for next January's frenzy about Bair coming back on loan from Leeds or something. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dezz Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 (edited) Aye I’d be fine with top of the bottom 6. Last season with KVV doing bits was enjoyable, and the bottom 6 games against Dundee and Partick in the season with Turnbull, Campbell, Hastie, Gboly and Gorrin etc were great fun. I want Theo to hit 15+ as well. Edited April 7 by dezz 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevie Kirk Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 1 hour ago, YassinMoutaouakil said: I will lose it. I hear you brother. Two man pitch invasion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capt_oats Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 13 minutes ago, rowsdower said: I dont actually think we'd lose 5, but that seems to be whats generally mooted as the downside of top six. With absolutely nothing to lose, we could be a dangerous prospect for the teams that have something to play for. Then you have killie and hearts just seeing out the season... I was at peace with "just don't be stranded at the bottom come the split" in December, so I'm not going to be distraught if we don't get it done next week. Aye. Fwiw, I don't think we'd lose 5 either. We'd definitely draw a couple. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welldaft Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 As everyone agrees top 6 would actually be rather funny all things considered. Then if we went on to pip St Mirren for a European place this season would go from one of the worst to one of the best in short order. But I am not too bothered at all. Financially it would be a good thing obviously, but it could get messy in terms of playing one of the Old Firm at home with the title race so close. Would rather do without all that hassle tbh. That said I would rather not lose to Hibs at home. So Dundee getting the 1 point they require would be the least painful option if we do miss out. Especially as it will be a tall order us coming back from being 1-0,2-0,3-0 or 4-0* down next weekend and win. If I was Hibs at every dead ball into the box I would just place a player in front of Kelly and watch the chaos ensue. * Delete as appropriate 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 If you assume we're beating St Mirren (obviously not a given, but if we don't then everything else is moot) then we still have to be one or two points better than them across the other 5 games. Probably more chance of us beating a half-arsed Hearts at home than them doing it at Tynie? On the other hand though we'll have to go to Rugby Park and they won't. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swello Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 The best thing about Top 6 is definitely the getting there - St Mirren found that out big time last year when the fun stopped after they made it and we've had some similar experiences over the years (although we've had seasons going for 2nd and 3rd that were obviously a different matter). On a financial basis, I'm not really convinced that 6th vs 7th makes a huge difference as I'm sure we'll be paying out some hefty bonus money for getting there as it's the measure of a "good" season at our club. When you balance that out by getting visits from (I'm guessing) Hearts and Rangers - is there going to be a huge difference? Whatever happens on Saturday (or Wednesday night) - it kind of feels like the season has been saved already - we're going to finish in a standard Motherwell 5th-8th type of position and that wasn't looking the case in the winter and so I'm fairly relaxed about the rest of the season.* * I will not be relaxed if it's on a knife edge on Saturday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 I'd rather finish 5th than 7th but I'd probably rather finish 7th than 6th. It's always a bit shite being the only team in the top half not getting Europe. Getting a result against the OF would maybe make it worth it though. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillips455 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Just now, Swello said: On a financial basis, I'm not really convinced that 6th vs 7th makes a huge difference as I'm sure we'll be paying out some hefty bonus money for getting there as it's the measure of a "good" season at our club. When you balance that out by getting visits from (I'm guessing) Hearts and Rangers - is there going to be a huge difference? Well it's a big possibility whoever finished in the top 6 come the end of next week will be competing with St Mirren for Europe. Assuming g Aberdeen don't win the Scottish cup, then 5th will get a European spot and if Motherwell were to get into the top 6, it would only be a 4 point gap. There would be a match between each other and Kilmarnock which could be the deciding factors. This really applies more to hibs or Dundee since the gap would be smaller if they get in. In any case, top 6 means no fear of relegation or play offs. That's all I care about eight now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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